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a bottom!?


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#1 dharma

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Posted 17 May 2012 - 10:10 AM

so , the master painters have painted a double bottom. we all have times when we get things wrong. the key is to find a major trend and ride its back. gold was the best infvestment of the last decade. miners have been underperforming. @ some point that too will change. i have done extensive reading of great market investors. the most successful traders were folks who found a trend and rode it. that has been the case for gold/silver. we will see on the miners. guys who dont hold positions overnight are scalpers, and in markets there are many ways to make money. i dont have the time or inclination to scalp or day trade. i traded hl in the last bull, management are still bunglers. so the master painters have painted a double bottom, and we are off , the nature and extant of this rally will tell us what kind of decline we are in store for. the bears will continue to be loud over the summer, and why not , they will have their day. after 12 years of higher highs we are due for a correction which confounds and confuses. the gold ads will still continue. folks have to make a living. we will see if the public continues to take leveraged positions. my guess is many have left the sector, they say for good. but in the parabolic they will come back. and look like genius' for a period. my take continues to be , its going to be along summer for the bulls. me included. i see this lasting until the august/september window. then a 1-2 type of thing. the fundamental backdrop has not changed we are in a big deflation w/ debt going through the roof and tax receipts declining . the piper will be paid. and it will be qe to infinity. hang in there. in 08 when the situation reared its ugly head it wasnt just gold/miners/silver/commodities that got hit . the broads took a whuppin-down to 6500 on the dow. i think this awaits. and what effect that has on gold and the miners. i made that mistake in 87 i was very short the broads and lightly long the miners. i have not seen a big down move in the broads, that did not affect gold/miners. in %terms take a look @ where the broads are in relation to the move off the 08 lows -the highs. its down a very small % while gold/miners are pushing towards the .618 . enjoy the rally , after that , the sucking sound will include just about everything. from that the only true bull market @this time will rise . my work shows this rally lasting till mid june. in that time period be alert. always be alert. bulls tend to make one complacent. has appl topped or is this just another shake out in the parabolic. that chart is a study. sure if you look @ the gold bull from 72 -80. other than the 75-76 50% haircut it looks like an easy ride. it wasnt. this will not be easy either. it hasnt been easy and it will get tougher. of that i am certain. dont play w/leverage . you will wind up a statistic! this thing has years to run. bears want all investors on board. bulls want as few as possible. this year should confirm that. dharma ken - ray has and uses excellent tools. venus retrograde has an excellent track record. and we are turning!

#2 dharma

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Posted 17 May 2012 - 10:33 AM

by the way, this is a smoothed chart of 30years of data
http://www.seasonalc...ssics_gold.html
dharma

#3 tria

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Posted 17 May 2012 - 10:49 AM

dharma,

I believe you meant to say a triple bottom possibility (not a double).

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOL...id=p79397998967

-tria

In the world of 0 and 1: "austerity" is the right thing to SAY; "spent more, print more" is the right thing to DO.

"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take."
~ Wayne Gretzky


#4 dharma

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Posted 17 May 2012 - 11:14 AM

dharma,

I believe you meant to say a triple bottom possibility (not a double).

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOL...id=p79397998967

-tria

it only hit the 1523 in december and yesterday, yes the other one is higher. but we are splitting hairs. it will be become irrelevant as the summer approaches and continues

dharma

#5 stubaby

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Posted 17 May 2012 - 11:37 AM

so the master painters have painted a double bottom, and we are off , the nature and extant of this rally will tell us what kind of decline we are in store for.

my take continues to be , its going to be along summer for the bulls. me included. i see this lasting until the august/september window. then a 1-2 type of thing. dharma



dharma:

I agree 100%! The drop in the miners this past 60 days will be repeated to some degree after this rally (IF we are blessed with some 'follow-through' here). My guess is it will be "sharp" to the upside, sucking a few more IN before the final slaughter. I will be watching closely!

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$HUI&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&i=p33271587080&a=259871927&r=4006.png


stubaby B)

#6 dharma

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Posted 17 May 2012 - 12:06 PM

stu-this is the logic on the miners. http://kingworldnews...ing_Shares.html
you get more for your $$$
dharma

#7 Psycho

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Posted 17 May 2012 - 11:26 PM

I am all in. I have been buying this dip all the way down. I have nothing left on the side. I too see another small dip this summer then new highs this fall. There is gonna be lots of debt talk this fall and gold will reap the rewards.

#8 tradermama

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Posted 18 May 2012 - 06:59 AM

While all this looks great as a double bottom ...as Dharma says it's gonna be a long summer. We still need to get over the 45 ma which presently is around 1639 and falling. And once we get over that, my next pnf buy signal is 1680 (gdx=44) but that would change if we get more volatility (reversing back and for from X's to O's). And even still, not until we can get over 1804 area and close over that 2 times could we put the odds high that the bottom is in imo. The argument could be we are in a trading range and that could also last the summer. So until that 1804 area is broken that's the argument imo. What works for me is pnf. It controls risk and not a trading tool. I subscribe to Dorsey's style of pnf and his website where you get more internals to watch for signs of strength and weaknesses. If one is afraid of losing sleep, this will help you as it helped me hold onto most of my gains during this downtrend. That said, we have a lot of work still to do as the relative strength on silver and miners are in the supply area (0's) and or sell's on their relative strength. That needs to change to X's (demand) which will come at higher levels. You can get buy signals but to insure strength the Relative Strengths needs to be on a buy signal for the trend to be bullish according to pnf. Till then we have a good short term rally 2-5 weeks and it's even suggested by Merriman until the above criteria is met (over 1800), if the rally stalls at that 45 ma, one should sell the rally. For me if I see improvement internally with pnf, I would use stops and let me get stopped out at certain levels. I hope this truely is a double bottom but something inside of me feels this is being as orchestrated as the drop we had. So prepare yourself for some gyrations after this rally has exhausted itself and see if we test those lows again. Confirmation will only be the name of the game for me. I'll post improvements that I get on my alerts for pnf but right now. Yea, Venus Retrograde worked again. Merriman always said it the metals would benefit more from Venus Retrogade over the broads but the broads are still set up for a reversal from anytime till the end of the month around the 27th (12 days after the retrograde). It feels as if metals diverging from the broads now and going up some QE is being demanded. Watch the Euro too if it stalls around 1.3078. A close above 131 imo will add fuel to the fire for metals, otherwise this could also be a counter trend rally from deep oversold conditions. Merriman is looking for a 3-13 rallly there and a selling opportunity from 130-131 on the Euro. We are definitely setting up for a higher weekly close from last week insuring a 2-5 week rally to continue. Good trading TM

#9 fluid

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Posted 18 May 2012 - 08:32 AM

To me the gold buggers have been sold the slope of hope and from here we go down in a bear market, which began in April.

#10 tradermama

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Posted 18 May 2012 - 09:36 AM

http://www.reuters.c...E84H06F20120518
This is what I meant about gold sniffing out some form of QE while breaking away the synchoronization from the broads..solar eclipse Monday with a new moon May 20th..possible bottom for broads short term/intermediate? ..still within Venus Retro tail..what will the news be?..global injecton of liquidity?
TM