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more concolidation


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#1 dharma

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Posted 27 June 2012 - 09:22 AM

on friday hgnsi sentiment fell to 4%. tuesday , it fell to -2.9%. And meanwhile CBs, this time Turkey, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan Further Diversify Into Gold. the price of gold gets batted around while the forces of deflation come to the fore. all the while, the sovereign debt crises continues to accelerate. waiting is part of the game. yesterday ,natural gas peaked over the downtrend line. will it generate enough interest for a continued up move? crude oil is still on the skids. grain prices have had a good run. the metals consolidate. money flees into negative interest bearing bonds. and US stocks. dharma

#2 johngeorge

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Posted 27 June 2012 - 09:37 AM

Here is some news on the eventual fate of the US dollar?

http://www.zerohedge...-and-settlement

Chile Is Latest Country To Launch Renminbi Swaps And Settlement

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/26/2012 20:25 -0400


The dollar exclusion list is becoming bigger and bigger with every passing day as China gets ready.

For simplicity's sake here is the full list of "bilateral" arranagements in the past year as presented previously: "World's Second (China) And Third Largest (Japan) Economies To Bypass Dollar, Engage In Direct Currency Trade", "China, Russia Drop Dollar In Bilateral Trade", "China And Iran To Bypass Dollar, Plan Oil Barter System", "India and Japan sign new $15bn currency swap agreement", "Iran, Russia Replace Dollar With Rial, Ruble in Trade, Fars Says", "India Joins Asian Dollar Exclusion Zone, Will Transact With Iran In Rupees", "The USD Trap Is Closing: Dollar Exclusion Zone Crosses The Pacific As Brazil Signs China Currency Swap."

And now the latest: "China, Chile To Establish Strategic Partnership, Boost Trade... Launch Currency Swap and Settle In Renminbi"

China and Chile agreed Tuesday to upgrade their bilateral ties to a strategic partnership, and double trade in three years.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and Chilean President Sebastian Pinera announced Tuesday the establishment of China-Chile strategic partnership and the completion of negotiations on investment-related supplementary deals to a bilateral free trade agreement.

China would like to be actively engaged in Chile's infrastructure construction and work with Chile to promote the development of transportation networks in Latin America, said Wen.

Meanwhile, Wen suggested that the two sides launch currency swaps and expand settlement in China's renminbi.

So to summarize, the list of countries that China is transacting with directly (that we know of), and bypassing the USD entirely, is as follows:

Japan
Russia
Iran
India
Brazil
and now, Chile

In other words, it looks like the BRICs already have their "bilateral" arrangements all sorted out, and are now quietly moving into other suppliers of key resources with swap deals, all without any mention of the word "dollar."

How soon until China re-dips its toe in Europe with a modest "bailout" nobody can refuse in exchange for a simple caveat: you get paid in renminbi?
Peace
johngeorge

#3 tradermama

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Posted 27 June 2012 - 10:25 AM

I have had the Renminbi my watch list..pnf buy would be 42.50...I believe that would give clues..

http://stockcharts.c...amp;a=264051818

TM

#4 stubaby

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Posted 27 June 2012 - 12:07 PM

I have had the Renminbi my watch list..pnf buy would be 42.50...I believe that would give clues..

http://stockcharts.c...amp;a=264051818

TM



tradermama:

Nice chart! CNY hasn't move much since it's inception in mid-March 2008, with the exception of the fall 2008 "financial meltdown" - total appreciation 2.1% 4-2008 to present.

http://stockcharts.c...40816511567.png

Just the kind of "sleeper" that could be setting up for a big move!


stubaby B)

#5 stubaby

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Posted 27 June 2012 - 12:18 PM

dharma: I see a bunch of "narrow range" days on charts of the miners - also "gap" on HUI chart 'finally' filled today - looking for an explosive move higher soon! Will it be a "one or two day wonder"? Time will tell stubaby B)

#6 dharma

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Posted 27 June 2012 - 01:50 PM

stubaby, sure seems like its setting up for a move . negative sentiment. complacency. bears loud and growling dharma

#7 dharma

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Posted 28 June 2012 - 10:20 AM

this in elliott terms sure smells like a wave 4 to me. i still have my hands in my pockets. meaning i am on the buy, but not doing anything yet. my guess is there are alot of stops below the lows, it seems too tempting , not to give it a probe and see the reaction. so i wait. hgnsi went to -15.4% yesterday market vane57% bulls. getting to enticing sentiment #s of course all the talk of deflation is rampant. of course the sovereigns will either renege(unlikely) or pay back w/depreciated dollars. the 2nd option is historically the likely option. election coming.up. we will see how that affects things? the longer they wait, the more they will have to print. eu summit coming up. merkel has drawn a line in the sand. no euro bonds. so we wait and see. sovereign debt is the issue. and there in the background stands a derivative tower. dharma sure seems like 75-76 to me(before my trading time, so i am not an accurate gauge there) the washout before the storm. lots of money has been lost by the gold community. they will leave, and then chase

Edited by dharma, 28 June 2012 - 10:26 AM.


#8 Ken

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Posted 28 June 2012 - 11:47 AM

I'm buying here for a short term pop in the next couple of weeks. (1) Raymond Merriman has June 27th +/- 3 days as a critical reversal date for the precious metals. (2) Also, this is the 6th week of the primary cycle as of the lows of May 16th. Gold typically puts in a major cycle low every 5 to 7 weeks so this is the timeframe for a cycle low. (3) On top of all that, heliocentric Mercury enters Sagittarius from July 5th to July 16th which is usually bullish for gold and silver. The timing would be perfect for a major cycle high in the second week of July and from there a more substantial decline could begin. (4) Silver's 18 day CCI hit -236 on Fri, June 22nd. Normally silver will move up substantially (10% or more) within 7 trading days of falling below -200 on the CCI(18). Today (June 28th) is the 4th trading day as of June 22nd. As long as silver doesn't close below $26.14 and gold doesn't close below $1532 (better yet would be $1550) I think the decline here is limited for now. So far things look good.

#9 dharma

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Posted 28 June 2012 - 02:01 PM

I'm buying here for a short term pop in the next couple of weeks.

(1) Raymond Merriman has June 27th +/- 3 days as a critical reversal date for the precious metals.

(2) Also, this is the 6th week of the primary cycle as of the lows of May 16th. Gold typically puts in a major cycle low every 5 to 7 weeks so this is the timeframe for a cycle low.

(3) On top of all that, heliocentric Mercury enters Sagittarius from July 5th to July 16th which is usually bullish for gold and silver. The timing would be perfect for a major cycle high in the second week of July and from there a more substantial decline could begin.

(4) Silver's 18 day CCI hit -236 on Fri, June 22nd. Normally silver will move up substantially (10% or more) within 7 trading days of falling below -200 on the CCI(18). Today (June 28th) is the 4th trading day as of June 22nd.

As long as silver doesn't close below $26.14 and gold doesn't close below $1532 (better yet would be $1550) I think the decline here is limited for now. So far things look good.

that is a possibility
lots of possibilities here.
could be another failed eu summit
i am going to wait. until i see signs of a bottom.
dharma

#10 dharma

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Posted 29 June 2012 - 10:19 AM

nice work ken. there was/is alot pressure in the gold market, lets see if todays action is like the 63 dollar day we had a couple of weeks ago, or will there be follow through, to take out the 1650 area? i am long, and on the buy, but not chasing. i will wait and see what develops over the next 2-3 months. dharma