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#1 dharma

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Posted 16 October 2012 - 10:32 AM

after yesterdays discussion w/tria and stubaby. i spent last night looking @charts and deliberating. mind you this will not affect my present position. more or less i dont care what i think, i am in bull market buy and hold mode. the crises keeps escalating. and i dont want to get caught in a thought that leaves me stranded here goes. in bull markets i have found that cycles which go from peak to peak offer the most accurate picture. thus the standout is the 21-22month cycle which i discovered some years back. @present it is not relevant to the present situation there is also a short cycle which i discovered. my date for the top was oct 1. the actual high was oct 4. normally after the cycle tops, there is a correction which can last to a max of 72 days, or it could be one of the shorter time frames. it seems early for the rally to begin. also my preferred count is we just finished wave 3 to the upside , wave 4s generally have some duration. my alternate is we finished wave 5 which case wave 2 should correct .618 @least of the preceding wave. we have corrected .236 on the miners and gold. so, it seems to me things are getting somewhat compressed. i am going to wait for the air to clear. before doing anything yes, i follow low to low cycles and they are quite elastic. even now we are in week 22 (merriman also has that) of a 15-21 week cycle was yesterday the low, it took out the previous low. and i noted it still managed to close above support. the election is around the corner the spanish election is the 21st . after that i expect they will come w/hat in hand for more qe the next cycle tops in january, i think alot happens between now and then. a move over the 1805 resistance on a couple of closes will give me confidence as to the direction. until then, my hands are in my pockets dharma a word on silver i have read ted butler quite a bit over the years i too am bullish on silver. however, it is too volatile for me to base my trading on. also the ratio of gold/;silver in spite of what alot of people i respect say has been quite elastic over the years. the 16:1 ratio. has in reality broad , very broad boundaries. if cbs start hoarding silver it will change the game , until then. the ratio could reach unthinkable extremes. and there is precedent for that in history! in a crises of this magnitude my attention is on gold. cbs hold gold. that is good enough for me.

Edited by dharma, 16 October 2012 - 10:37 AM.


#2 stubaby

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Posted 16 October 2012 - 11:04 AM

...more or less i dont care what i think...



:D :D :D

dharma:

Thank you for this single statement!!! I think we ALL get caught-up in "information overload" and forget the KISS principal. We are in a BULL market - most of us have our "core" positions at various percentages and don't worry about that.

Your comment on 4th Waves hit home to me, as the corrections ending in both Gold (12 month corrective) and Silver (17 month corrective) have that "time element" indicative of 4th Waves. What degree is the only question - no matter 4th Waves are followed by 5th Waves (my enlightened statement) and thus we need to all BUCKLE UP FOR THE RIDE!

Those that are looking to add to core, waiting for that perfect moment may be left behind!

stubaby B)

#3 stubaby

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Posted 17 October 2012 - 10:04 AM

dharma:

Will be watching Gold:Silver Ratio for end of corrective in PMs

60 Minute Chart shows rising wedges on both RSI and MACD:
http://stockcharts.c...71967&r=723.png

50-Day MA crosses below 200-Day MA and offers resistance:
http://stockcharts.c...1968&r=6638.png

stubaby B)

Edited by stubaby, 17 October 2012 - 10:04 AM.


#4 dharma

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Posted 17 October 2012 - 10:29 AM

stubaby, i read ted butler and i read eric sprott. both of whom, i have great respect for. however this crises is of the highest magnitude. cbs hold gold , i believe gold will continue to widen against silver, there may be a brief time in the bull , when speculation leads, and thus silver leads. gold is the leader, it is the true monetary metal.
i have found the london traders insights to be profound . this am there will be 3 blogs posted .
here is the 1st
http://kingworldnews..._Is_Fierce.html

i am in sit mode. they say o won the debate last night. might the gold market like that=ie 4 more years of ben.
in the end it really wont matter. who ever gets in , they will throw money @the situation.
the euro has eaten some oats this am
that 1805 hangs overhead. like all the rest of the maginot lines, this one too shall fall. lots of charts display pennants.
dharma

#5 dharma

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Posted 17 October 2012 - 02:17 PM

this will become the crux of the situation, @some point down the road
http://kingworldnews...nzi_Scheme.html

dharma

#6 dharma

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Posted 18 October 2012 - 09:23 AM

looking @ a weekly chart, we are in a tr. 1520ish on the downside and 1800 on the upside. the market is building cause. the tr has lasted almost a year now. the pattern , if stepped back to a monthly chart looks quite bullish. the question becomes how long does this consolidation take before breaking out??? ahhhh, i dont have the answer , so i sit and wait. w/fully paid for positions. then when we finally break out, will the 1800 need to be tested from the downside??? patience , there is nothing else to do dharma

#7 stubaby

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Posted 18 October 2012 - 10:04 AM

looking @ a weekly chart, we are in a tr. 1520ish on the downside and 1800 on the upside. the market is building cause. the tr has lasted almost a year now. the pattern , if stepped back to a monthly chart looks quite bullish. the question becomes how long does this consolidation take before breaking out??? ahhhh, i dont have the answer , so i sit and wait. w/fully paid for positions. then when we finally break out, will the 1800 need to be tested from the downside???
patience , there is nothing else to do
dharma


dharma:

Thanks for your observations!


What sticks out to me on the weekly is the distance from the 65-Week MA at the 2011 high and today - also the "reset" of the 15-Week and 65-Week MA's:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=4&mn=11&dy=0&i=p83448395647&a=183376203&r=644.png

On the monthly a new and steeper channel forming? MACD still not confirming and looks somewhat vulnerable here though!
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=M&st=1996-01-01&en=2012-12-31&i=p71184594845&a=259871923&r=939.png

stubaby B)

Edited by stubaby, 18 October 2012 - 10:05 AM.


#8 stubaby

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Posted 18 October 2012 - 11:52 AM

Central Fund of Canada (CEF) is backtesting breakout line:
http://stockcharts.c...4865&r=7584.png

http://stockcharts.c...45106&r=709.png

CEF NAV(53.3% Gold/45.7% Silver/1.0% Cash)

stubaby B)

#9 dharma

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Posted 18 October 2012 - 12:06 PM

stubaby, i am seeing that pattern as well as pennants forming in several issues. i dont know which direction we take next. but these could be clues! will there be disappointment if the euro union does not bail out spain tomorrow. dharma

#10 stubaby

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Posted 18 October 2012 - 03:04 PM

dharma:

Short-Term looks like Wave a of 4 could finish-up tomorrow or Monday near the 38.2% FIB:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$HUI&p=30&yr=0&mn=3&dy=1&i=p94078093609&a=259871924&r=77.png

That would complete Wave a of 4 and depending on Wave b of 4 final Wave c of 4 could take us to early December just above the 50% FIB:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$HUI&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&i=p19975498364&a=259871925&r=518.png


stubaby B)


note: of course - I'm "talking my book" as several more of my limit buys could hit if we get a final move down here :D

Edited by stubaby, 18 October 2012 - 03:04 PM.