382 replies to this topic

[tria]

sinclair just put out a brilliant piece. understand that . and you will see the banksters will be your ultimate ally
stubaby, great charts
thinking in fib terms we still have not done a .382 of the recent advance
sound and fury
dharma

dharma:

If we are still in Wave 3 (Wave iv of 3) we hit the 38.2% FIB today (1,719.88)


stubaby

That is why I covered and then went 1/3rd long.
Good action by the GDX but would like to see what happens next week after today's OPEX.

-tria

[dharma]

dow -200 gold -20 miners +lots of value here. not a usual situation dharma

[dharma]

if you read sinclairs piece and fully understand the magnitude of what that piece suggests, then you realize what you are up against trading this market. the commercials have deep deep pockets and spread margin is minimal. some folks thought their adversaries were not polished, well they are and well heeled to boot. pick your spots for confrontation. i am in buy mode waiting for a divergent bottom, if none develops i ride w/what i got dharma ps . if you read reminiscences of a stock operator, jesse talked about this kind fo stuff, along w/pushing the media in the desired direction as well

[tria]

FWIW, as I posted in the t-Theory forum. A basically sideways week for Gold is what I am looking for, with a few short term trading opportunities both up and down. Still looking for a lower and lasting low by year’s end, too early to be more specific. The Euro may/should have a some residual strength left till month’s end but I do not see anything much above 132.30. The JPY offers a very good shorting potential in my mind as well. In TLT the easy noney have already been made. Only good for trading till Jan 2013, from which time a big decline is a real possibility. Buying Italian 10-year Gov. paper and selling USA Gov. paper was the way to go from last June and Mark Faber did suggest it. In the USA Stk Mkt I am expecting a late October/early November low and/or a more probable and important Jan-Feb 2013 low. Knowing that overconfidence, hysteria and panic can create large price swings, small positions are mandatory to me till then. -tria

[dharma]

tria sounds like you have a plan i do have a high in january. from now till the december period its a guess. i dont think new lows , below the 1520s is a possibility before years end. in the march/april period anything is possible. keep in mind this is a big gigantic crises. what if a major nation eg japan, britain, france has debt problems. what if a major bank becomes insolvent. this is not a game for the faint of heart. it is a crises and anything can happen. one has to be prepared to buy weakness, not freak out and sell paid for positions. if you need advice, read sinclair. he was a major player in the last bull. he knows what he is talking about. everyone else, may or may not be experienced or have understanding. above all do your own work. think for yourself . have a plan and stick to it. leave your emotions to life. not to trading. there will be a major event, which could spark the presses to top gear. dharma

[dharma]

some minor astro stuff tomorrow thursday is options expiration, i have nothing else this month the season pressure comes off nov 1 dharma

[tria]

FWIW I added another 1/3rd to my Gold and Silver trading position near the lows. -tria

[dharma]

we are in a crises situation world wide. in spite of the appearance of normalcy. the death zone for the decline on my work is 1659 . of course there are points of support before then. the 1697 to 1716 is one that we are in now. i am quite comfortable right now. having watched gold spin its wheels on the assault of 1800, for a couple of weeks. i felt they would try the downside and here we are. i am waiting for a buy signal. of course i understand the round # is support. i like to see loss of momo before i add back. the mining indexes , all of them are exhibiting powerful bullish patterns @this point. they are ready to lead. 1661 is the 50% retracement. so the decline has not taken that much back. patience in here is required dharma

[tria]

FWIW

I added another 1/3rd to my Gold and Silver trading position near the lows.

-tria

In the 2-hour time frame, positive divergences in Gold have been noticed in the rsi, mfi, mcd oscillators and in the accumulation/distribution line. Let us see if they hold or not.

-tria

[dharma]

agree there are houly divergences in gold, but none yet in the mining indexes, in no hurry here. today the fed makes a statement, and of course, although they have stated their intentions, the wording will be key thursday is options expiration HGNSI fell 11.8 points to 15.5% monday. MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus fell 2 points to 65% on tueday. so you can see the sentiment is quite skeptical. =bullish. as has been the case, the sector is not one of the favorites, to say the least. we are in a support zone w/fib support just below the market. there are 2 concerns that i have: 1- a change in the tax law. the repeal of the bush tax cuts, could cause a sell off in stocks. taking away tax benefits for investors is not a good idea 2-a sudden lehman type of event. some entity(a municipality, govt etc) declares bankruptcy either of these events will cause deflation. i do think the end result will be more printing, but in the meantime, it could cause the price of gold to get hit dharma