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the present situation


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#131 dharma

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Posted 03 June 2013 - 09:36 AM

the economic world is changing , no doubt about it. the big money, and i am talking about the really big money, is gyrating the market. on the one hand sending it to and fro. even while the cost of mining gold is not that profitable , at these gold prices, for many of the majors. the truth of the matter is, no one knows how this is going to play out. is this the bottom or is there another shoe to fall. will qe world wide continue to prop stock prices causing a temporary state of nirvana? which we are seeing in the usa. the nikkei on the other side , hit the skids. so , the dollar getting the safe haven status has things propped up. which of course makes little sense. around here, restaurant biz is down 50% and this is a maor usa tourist town and destination. i do think some kind of rally is in the cards. and i do think whenever and from whatever price this correction ends, the bull will return. how long and from what price is the only question in my mind. the chart i posted of the bear of 75-76 is quite instructive. 20 months of bear and a 50% haircut. this bull is longer in duration, w/an unprecedented 12 years of higher highs. this correction is not 50% and 21 months in duration. sentiment is still @extremes. and the cots get more and more friendly. remember there were not hedge funds in the last bull. the big fish were the hunts. they got sent to the cleaners. this time its the hedgies net short, lets see what price forces them to cover. lets clean out both sides. as long as one thought this would all take, it seems its even going to take longer dharma

#132 johngeorge

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Posted 03 June 2013 - 09:55 AM

the economic world is changing , no doubt about it. the big money, and i am talking about the really big money, is gyrating the market. on the one hand sending it to and fro. even while the cost of mining gold is not that profitable , at these gold prices, for many of the majors. the truth of the matter is, no one knows how this is going to play out.
is this the bottom or is there another shoe to fall. will qe world wide continue to prop stock prices causing a temporary state of nirvana? which we are seeing in the usa. the nikkei on the other side , hit the skids. so , the dollar getting the safe haven status has things propped up. which of course makes little sense. around here, restaurant biz is down 50% and this is a maor usa tourist town and destination.
i do think some kind of rally is in the cards. and i do think whenever and from whatever price this correction ends, the bull will return. how long and from what price is the only question in my mind.
the chart i posted of the bear of 75-76 is quite instructive. 20 months of bear and a 50% haircut.
this bull is longer in duration, w/an unprecedented 12 years of higher highs. this correction is not 50% and 21 months in duration. sentiment is still @extremes. and the cots get more and more friendly. remember there were not hedge funds in the last bull. the big fish were the hunts. they got sent to the cleaners. this time its the hedgies net short, lets see what price forces them to cover. lets clean out both sides. as long as one thought this would all take, it seems its even going to take longer
dharma

As they say, dharma, patience is its own reward. :rolleyes: :D
Peace
johngeorge