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Long Term Thought


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#1 StockOperator 2005

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Posted 24 June 2004 - 09:59 PM

Could go below 7000 from this level just like Japan in the 1990's. On the other hand, this could be a longer term inverted S-H-S formation and that is where my money is:

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:ph34r:

#2 stockbucks_coffee

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Posted 24 June 2004 - 10:33 PM

In the major secular bear markets I know of...all or most found an major/important bottom within 3 or 4 years then 'muddled' around in a trending or nontrending trading range for a long period. Then some resolution will appear. Dow topped in 1929, crashed into 1932, rallied back up from the bottom, upward trading range until start of secular bull market in the 1940s. Dow topped in early 1973, crashed into late 1974, rallied back up from the bottom, trading range until start of seular bull market in late 1982. Nikkei topped in 1989, crashed into 1992, rallied back up from the bottom, trading range and everyone said "Oh, it'll be like the Dow in their last two secular bear markets. Don't worry it go back up in less than a decade." The bottom fell out instead as the Nikkei broke even lower in 2001 and crashed again into the 2003 bottom. Nasdaq topped in 2000, crashed into 2003, rallied back up from the bottom,... storyline will likely be the same as the others but the plot will likely be different. SBC.

#3 stockbucks_coffee

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Posted 24 June 2004 - 10:43 PM

Nasdaq topped in 2000, crashed into 2003, rallied back up from the bottom,...

should be

Nasdaq topped in 2000, crashed into 2002 (not 2003), rallied back up from the bottom,...