262 replies to this topic

[tradesurfer]

I might be a contrarian signal..

but this is what I think will happen to gold next 2 weeks




It would have been more bullish had we fully tested the 22.21 in GDX today and then closed back above it, but instead we are just above it and build a lot of steam and potential energy over the weekend into next week, which almost guaranteed will be an up week for stock market and capitulation down for gold sector ?

[senorBS]

taking a long stab on GDX on the down opening Senor

[senorBS]

have to wonder if we are seeing miner capitulation as they are down substantially and below June lows (HUI and GDX but not XAU yet) with silver and gold basically flat after making modest new lows overnight. By the way daily and weekly RSI are seeing big divergences so far. Senor

[dharma]

what i see is sentiment is way lopsided, but i dont see signs of a bottom yet. now if silver or gold were to make new lows, ie below the june 28th lows and the other did not . then i think there will be more to hang your hat on. the miners seem to have taken out their previous lows except for xau. it seems to me whoever is buying is buying @lower levels. its a slippery slope down here. w/o much footing for the market. its going to take patience. dharma

[dougie]

pure ugly anyone seeing any signs of a low needs new glasses imo

[senorBS]

pure ugly
anyone seeing any signs of a low needs new glasses imo

that is simply an asinine opinion in my "opinion"

Senor

[dougie]

you are right! a low it was. the low is a diffeernt matter.

[senorBS]

you are right!
a low it was. the low is a diffeernt matter.

who in the heck knows if it is THE low, don't really care, just trying to identify what looks to me the potential for a muy bueno trading bottom. Do note though that monthly-weekly-daily RSI so far all have diverged into this weeks new major decline lows and sentiment is extreme and these have a bueno chance to be fifth waves of at least intermediate term degree. These are classic ingredients for a low and your sarcastic posts yesterday may have been the last missing ingredient - gracias for being such a bueno contrary indicator

Senor

[dharma]

silver was falling in a wedge. it appears to have come out the top. oscillators are low,ie oversold and turning up gold is falling in a wedge, oscillators are low and turning up sentiment remains @suicidal levels could be some tax loss selling miners appear to have put in a double bottom, w/the 2nd bottom being on lighter volume. that will not be known until we cross 31 ish on the gdx. all the banks are bearish and as the cot shows they are covering shorts(smart money) while the large specs(dumb money) continues to build a short position if buying bottoms was easy every one could do it. not sure this is the bottom or the low, but the set up is extreme which is indicative of bottoms. alot of the pieces of the puzzle are in place. however, the cycles are calling for a low late december. my feeling is whenever and from wherever this turns it could be explosive. it feels to me like everyone is on the same side of the boat. just expressing myself outloud dharma

[Russ]

pure ugly
anyone seeing any signs of a low needs new glasses imo

It looks like a significant low in the miners to me and actually my glasses work fine.