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#1 Chris G

Chris G

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Posted 11 February 2014 - 10:46 PM

LEIBOVIT FILES
Tuesday February 11th, 2014
by Mark Leibovit


It's Showtime for Janet Bernanke!

Two upcoming webinars:
Metastock: Today at 7 pm EST:

http://tinyurl.com/lg32bwn

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Festival of Traders: Wednesday at 6:15 pm EST:

http://www.sharktige....htm?src=leib02
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Do you subscribe to the Leibovit VR Gold Letter?

I've posted my AFM for gold right on the front cover. You don't want to miss that!

The February 7 newsletter is now available and can be purchased at www.vrgoldletter.com. The Leibovit VR Gold Letter tracks precious metals, guns, and energy.
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MENTORING - ONE ON ONE:
Would you be interested in personal stock market trading mentoring services personally with internationally recognized market guru, Mark Leibovit? The answer is personal mentoring services and they are coming soon! Learn the secrets of the Leibovit Volume Reversal (VR) - learn techniques never before published or revealed for the past 40 years! Learn how to interpret and profit from the use of the Leibovit VR 'Add-on' indicator whether you are a Metastock user or an ESignal user! Details forthcoming. Please email us to get on the waiting list at mark.vrtrader@gmail.com.
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What is a Leibovit Volume Reversal (VR)? You can learn how to use this positive indicator and begin picking your own trades!

A Leibovit Volume Reversal ™ is a change from a Rally day to a Reaction day accompanied by a increase of volume or a change from a Reaction day to Rally day accompanied by an increase in volume.

Leibovit Volume Reversals ™ coming off intermediate lows or highs have greater significance in helping to define those lows or highs and important pivot points in the marketplace.

VR signals are currently available through Metastock and a launch on ESignal is scheduled in March.

Use the following link to sign up for Metastock:

http://www.vrplug-in.com/

The Volume Reversal ™ is a registered trademark and can only be used or quoted after receiving express written permission from VRTrader.com and Mark Leibovit.
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STOCK MARKET - ACTION ALERT - SELL - It's 'Turnaround Tuesday' and the most powerful governmental official in the world, Janet Yellen, today testifies before Congress. Tomorrow is a possible 'Weird Wollie Wednesday' and a week from Friday is Options Expiration. Rules are often broken and patterns don't always repeat when they should, but normally I would be looking for a pullback here and then a resumption of the rally during Options Expiration week. That said, technical parameters for the S&P 500 are: over SPX 1814 uptrend probably underway, below 1779 pivot range downtrend resumes. While I am in the bear camp this year due to both my technical work and the infamous 'January Barometer', as you can see there is plenty of action in both directions. On the upside we are watching Tesla, FireEye, Green Mountain Coffee, Neflix and several marijuana stocks surging to new highs (not to mention the current rally in gold and the gold shares in which we are participating), so it's difficult to condemn the entire market even though cautious signals have already been flashed. Seasonally, we may have formed my expected low due sometime late January into mid-February which I felt could set the stage for a bounce into the 'Sell May (or April)' top.

That said, I feel the we may have entered a one or two year bear market (along with the usual contra-rallies). In the SPX, downside potential is first 1680, 1627 and possibly 1480. Recall I've been writing about this for over a year now that 2013 or early 2014 could end the bull market.
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Don't hesitate! Sign up today for the 2014 AFM Model!
The 2014 AFM will be published by mid-February.

SIGN UP TODAY!

http://tinyurl.com/mbkg53n
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MARKET ACTION:
The stock market began the new trading week on a subdued note. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 posted gains between 0.1% and 0.5% with the Nasdaq Composite ending in the lead.

Overall, the session had a 'wait-and-see' feel as many participants stuck to the sidelines ahead of today's Humphrey-Hawkins testimony on monetary policy. Although Janet Yellen is expected to strike a similar tone to the latest FOMC policy statement, the testimony will be the first public appearance for the new Fed Chair. Janet Yellen's prepared remarks will be released at 8:30 ET while the Q&A before the House Financial Services Committee is scheduled to begin at 10:00 ET.

Today, the wholesale inventories report for December will be released at 10:00 ET.
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The DJ was up 7.71 at 15801.79. The record high posted on December 31 at 16588.25 and we traded down to 15340.69 on February 5 for a total of 1247.56 points. Downside potential is 14720 when the correction resumes.
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The S&P 500 was up 2.82 at 1799.84. The bull market high was at 1850.84 from January 15 and we traded down to 1737.92 on February 5 for a total of 112.92 points. Downside potential is 1627 and then 1480.
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The leading Dow Transports were down 70.86 at 7171.47. The record high was posted on January 23 at 7591.43 and the recent low was posted on February 5 at 7009.98. Big support is way down at 6600.00.
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The Russell 2000 was up 2.18 at 1118.73. The record high was posted intraday at 1182.04 on January 22 and the recent February 5 low was 7009.98. Next downside target is 1075.00.
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The Nasdaq Composite was up 22.31 at 4148.17. The recent low of 3958.19 was posted on February 5. The bull market high was posted on January 22 at 4246.55 and the lowest low to date was yesterday at 3958.19. Ultimately, we will trade back up to its record high of 5132.52 from 13 years ago. I believe the date was March 12, 2000!
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The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which measures the cost of using options as insurance against declines in the S&P 500 (i.e., the higher the number, the more fear in the marketplace) was down .03 at 15.26. We touched 21.48 on February 4. Previously, the recent highs are 21.34 on October 9 and 21.91 on June 24 -the highest highs since the March 15 low of 11.21 - the lowest level since February 2007. The higher we go in the VIX, the more likely a bear cycle is upon us with the opposite being true for a bull cycle.
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Six of the nine major market sectors were higher on Monday:

XLB +0.49% Materials
XLE -0.49% Energy
XLF +0.09% Financial
XLI -0.63% Industrial
XLK +0.20% Technology
XLP +0.39% Consumer Staples
XLU +0.75% Utilities
XLV +0.83% Health Care
XLY -0.06% Consumer Discretionary
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NYSE Advance/Decline 1816/1286.
NASDAQ Advance/Decline 1508/1042.
NYSE UP volume to DOWN volume was 15 to 17.
NASDAQ UP volume to DOWN volume was 12 to 5.
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ECONOMIC CALENDAR
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Courtesy of equityclock.com:

December Wholesale Inventories to be released at 10:00 AM EST on Tuesday is expected to increase 0.6% versus a gain of 0.5% in November.

Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen appears before a Congressional Committee at 10:00 AM EST to review U.S. monetary policy
Canadian Federal Budget is to be released at 4:00 PM EST on Tuesday.

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday are expected to increase to 335,000 versus a gain of 331,000 last week.

January Retail Sales to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday are expected to be unchanged from December versus a previous gain of 0.2%. Excluding auto sales, January Retail Sales are expected to increase 0.1% versus a gain of 0.7% in December.

December Business Inventories to be released at 10:00 AM EST on Thursday are expected to increase 0.4% versus a gain of 0.4% in November.

January Industrial Production to be released at 9:15 AM EST on Friday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.3% in December. January Capacity Utilization is expected to increase to 79.4% from 79.2% in December.

February Michigan Sentiment to be released at 9:55 AM EST on Friday is expected to slip to 80.2 from 81.2 in January.
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Earnings News:

Tuesday: CAE, Ingersoll-Rand, Mosaic, Sprint.

Wednesday: Agnico-Eagle, Applied Materials, Cisco, Cott Beverages, Deere, Kinross Gold, Met Life, NVIDIA, Talisman, Thomson Reuters, Whole Foods.

Thursday: Apache, AIG, Avon Products, Barrick Gold, Cenovus, Encana, Goldcorp, Great West Lifeco, Kraft, Manulife, Molson Coors, Pepsico, Precision Drilling, Rio Tint, Telus, West Fraser Timber.

Friday: Campbell Soup, Enbridge
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METALS - ACTION ALERT FOR THE METALS - BUY - Gold broke out on volume above 1272.22 touching 1277.35. Slowly but surely the tortoise is winning the race and VRtrader Platinum subscribers know we've been long . A possible move into the 1300s, if not 1400, could be underway. Next resistance levels in spot gold include: 1292, 1330, 1362, 1378, 1433 and 1500. Support is at 1219, 1186, 1080 and 922.
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Spot Gold was up 6.66 at 1275.17. We cleared resistance at the January 27 peak of 1272.33.

In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 33 participants, 23 responded last week. Sixteen see prices up, while four see prices down and three see prices trading sideways or are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.
Gold prices rose this week, making a series of higher lows on daily technical charts, but the metal found stiff resistance again at the mid-$1,270s area.

Despite gold's lackluster response to the jobs market, several market analysts said they think the yellow metal could continue its gains this week.

Your #1 recourse against any grabby government is to hold a substantial portion of your savings in physical precious metals. Though the past two years have been a rough ride, history unequivocally shows that gold is unrivaled in its ability to hold value over the long term. And what's more, evidence is mounting that gold's decline is coming to an end-for both the metal and the miners.
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Spot Silver was up .04 at 20.06 touching 20.29. We need to at least see 20.57 exceeded to reinstate an uptrend. Then, big resistance is at 24.00. Under the June 27 low of 18.31 downside potential points to the 13.00-15.00 range.
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Platinum was up 2.00 at 1386.00 touching 1394.00. It traded as high as 1550.50 on August 27. That's where we need to get through to get the fire going in this market. Under the June 28th low of 1303.00, look for a 1250.00 next target. The big, big low was at 731 on October 27, 2008 and the big, big record high of 2308.80 that preceded it was back on March 4, 2008.
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Palladium was up 5.00 at 717.50 touching 723.50. On June 10, 2013, we touched a new recovery high of 775.00 before we nosedived to 633 (the June 26 low). That pretty much defines the current near-term trading range. Under 633, downside potential is next to 526. Above 775, look towards the 825-875 range and possibly 1000+. The big, big low was posted back on November 28, 2008 at 154 and hit an all-time high of 968.00 back in December, 2000.
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The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index - the XAU (for shares) - was up 2.83 at 95.05. On January 27 the XAU traded at 95.23 intraday, both new 'bounce' highs as compared to the 79.73 intraday low on December 19 which was the lowest low since the recent peak of 115.21 posted on August 27. Should we clear 115.21, look for 116.20 and 127.00. Under 79.73 (the December 19 low), downside potential (risk) is next to 65.00. The 'big picture' high was 232.72 in December, 2010.
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Copper was up .0010 at 3.2680. Resistance is way above the market at 3.48, 3.5605, 3.5905, 3.7935 and the 3.8520 high from September 14, 2012. Under 3.0065, next support (a possible target) is 2.85. The record high of 4.6495 was posted on February 15, 2011. Recall, Copper had hit a bear market low of 1.2710 back on December 26, 2008.
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BONDS - ACTION ALERT - NEUTRAL - Thirty year bonds were down 1/32 at 133 9/32. Treasuries settled modestly higher with the 10-yr yield off one basis point at 2.67%.
The July 27, 2012 peak was at 153 11/32. The recent low was 127 23/32 on December 31.
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CRUDE OIL - SUMMARY
Crude was up .18 at 100.06 touching 100.55. On January 9, Crude touched 91.24, the lowest low since Crude traded at the 112.24 high on August 28. We are now trading in that range.
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NATURAL GAS - SUMMARY
Natural gas was down .196 at 4.579. Natural gas hit a 10-year low of 1.902 on April 20, 2012. The recent high was 5.747 on February 5. I am looking for more of a pullback.
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US DOLLAR AND OTHER CURRENCIES - SUMMARY
The U.S. Dollar Index closed down .049 at 80.642. The Dollar touched 78.998 on October 25 down from the recent July 9 peak of 84.753. This now defines the near-term trading range. The 81.48 high of November 8 is the next resistance level. Above that high there is potential to 86.00, 88.80 and later into the 90s. Below that low we could see 76.00 and possibly 70.00. In my view the big bear market in the U.S. Dollar is still the primary trend, but the U.S. Dollar tends to fair better during U.S. Democratic Administrations. Its recent low was posted on September 14, 2012 at 78.601.
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URANIUM - SUMMARY
Spot Uranium's posted on www.uxc.com was unchanged at 35.50 at the February 3rd posting. Please note that this is only an estimate of the cash market. Uranium has swung from the June 13, 2007 high of 154.95 down to present.
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The Canadian Dollar (using FXC as our surrogate) was down .15 at 89.97. The lowest was 88.70 on January 31, since the September 14, 2012 high at 102.96. If you draw a downtrend line from the September 14, 2012 peak at 102.96, you can see a breakout would occur above 97.46 and that's a long ways away:

http://tinyurl.com/lybc9wm

As reported, downside risk was first to the 93.00 zone (achieved) and then possibly to 87.00. We're awfully close! Upside potential is the 100-101 range if and when we clear 99.23. Above there, look for the 105.59 peak from July, 2011 and the 113.02 peak from November, 2007. Support numbers are 93.78, 93.20, 92.50 91.82, 91.00, 89.75, 87.50 and 85.18. Resistance is 97.50, 99.24. 101.74, 102.07, 103.08, 105.59, 108.00, 110.00, 113.00. We need a rally above 101.29 to re-establish the uptrend.
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TSX - ACTION ALERT - BULL:
The TSX was up 7.68 at 13794.18. The recent high was 14002.39 on January 23. That may have been close enough to my published 'next' upside target of 14150.00. Wetouched 13450.31 on February 3.
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ACTION ALERT - BULL:
The TSX Venture was up 10.30 at 952.80. If we get going again, the next resistance is 1017.59. VRtrader Platinum are long the TSX Venture via an ETF. Recent support is the double-bottom formed comparing the 859.31 low from June 27 to the July 9 low of 873.05. Under those lows, look for support at 830.00 and 780.00 on the way down.
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CANADIAN SECTORS:

Energy
271.18 -1.70 (-0.62%)
Financials
225.13 -0.26 (-0.12%)
Health Care
97.89 0.59 (0.61%)
Industrials
164.30 -0.40 (-0.24%)
Info Tech
37.74 -0.04 (-0.11%)
Metals & Mining
832.23 1.35 (0.16%)
Telecom
117.12 -0.01 (-0.01%)
Utilities
213.07 -0.43 (-0.20%)

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IN THE NEWS:
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Venezuela has its gold, if not toilet paper, but what about Germany?

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Responding to suggestions last week from Germany's Bundesbank that it must repatriate its gold slowly from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York for security reasons, possibly at a rate of no more than 1 tonne per week over six years --

http://www.gata.org/node/13606

-- GATA's friend and consultant R.M. recalls how fast Venezuela managed to repatriate its gold from the Bank of England and other banks over the same expanse of ocean in 2012.
The Bloomberg News story appended here reports on the arrival in Caracas on January 30, 2012, of the final shipment of Venezuela's gold, 14 tonnes carried on a single flight. Bloomberg quotes the president of Venezuela's central bank, Nelson Merentes, as saying: "In two months we've brought 160 tons of gold valued at around $9 billion back to Venezuela."
By contrast, the Bundesbank first planned to take seven years to recover 300 tonnes from the New York Fed. If Venezuela's pace had been adopted, the Bundesbank could have recovered those 300 tonnes in four months, and, if it has been so inclined, could have recovered its remaining 1,200 tonnes at the New York Fed in another 15 months or so.

R.M. calculates that Venezuela's final 14 tonnes were valued at the time at about $774 million, more eggs than most people would want to put in a single basket. But cargo planes, civilian and military, fly over the oceans every day, and civilian and military ships sail them every day with a safety record even better than that of cargo aircraft.

So one must suspect that security really isn't the reason for the slow pace of the Bundesbank's gold repatriation from the New York Fed -- that the reason is that, as fund manager, geopolitical strategist, and author James G. Rickards has speculated, the Bundesbank really doesn't want its gold back from the New York Fed and that the nominal repatriation is meant only to ease political clamor in Germany. Or one must suspect that, as many supposedly paranoid gold bugs believe, the German gold is no longer available, having been overcommitted in the fractional-reserve gold banking system of the Western central bank gold price suppression scheme.

Of course the latter explanation also could be why the Bundesbank might not really want its gold back any time soon. What an embarrassment, scandal, and financial loss the truth might be.

In any case, when it comes to gold repatriation, Venezuela, whose collapsing command economy lately has forced people to rush over to Columbia in search of basic foodstuffs and consumer items, mocks the famous German efficiency. Venezuela may not have toilet paper but it has its gold -- at least until it tries to raise money for toilet paper by leasing its gold to some agent of Western gold price suppression. Are Germany's gold certificates from the New York Fed worth more than toilet paper?
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Fed's Yellen Set to Take Center Stage

Janet Yellen's first test as chair of the Federal Reserve comes on Tuesday when she faces U.S. lawmakers, some hostile to the central bank, who will want to know how committed she is to winding down the Fed's support for the economy.

With the world's financial markets watching, Yellen, who succeeded Ben Bernanke last week, will have a chance to set a mostly upbeat tone and point to signs of steady economic progress, despite some recent bumps in the road.

The Fed has embarked on perhaps its most difficult policy shift after five years of ultra-easy money. It has begun scaling back its bond-buying stimulus, but at a measured pace that could frustrate some Republicans who think the program is reckless.

Those concerns will be aired on Tuesday, when Yellen appears before the Republican-controlled House Financial Services Committee to testify on the Fed's semiannual monetary policy report. Her testimony will be released at 8:30 a.m. Washington time, although the hearing does not begin until 10 a.m. She testifies to the Democrat-controlled Senate Banking Committee on Thursday.

The Fed has trimmed its asset purchases twice since December, encouraged by momentum in the economy late last year. But two months of weak U.S. jobs growth, a slump in manufacturing and a recent selloff in emerging markets now complicate things for the new Fed chief.

Yellen, the former Fed vice chair who is the first woman to run the central bank in its 100-year history, is expected to calmly point to a longer-term trend toward improvement in the labor market and to low but stable inflation as reasons for cautious optimism and for steady reductions in the stimulus.

Long concerned with the pain the 2007-2009 recession caused for American workers, she will also probably stress that near-zero interest rates will not be raised any time soon.

"I don't think there's anything she's not going to be ready for," said Paul Ashworth, chief North American economist at research firm Capital Economics. "These are sometimes political theater," he added. "It's a mid-term election year ... so you are going to get some grandstanding from both sides."

REPUBLICANS VS FED

Underlining Republican unease with the Fed's aggressive response to the financial crisis and recession, the House panel invited witnesses to react to Yellen's testimony immediately afterward. Three of the four are critics of the bond-buying program, including Stanford University's John Taylor.

Conservatives worry the years of near-zero interest rates and trillions of dollars in money-printing risk weakening the U.S. dollar, while setting the stage for asset price bubbles and an explosion in inflation.

Jeb Hensarling, chairman of the House committee, has been holding hearings on the asset purchases, which are currently running at $65 billion per month.

In the Senate, fellow Republican Rand Paul wants to establish audits of the Fed's policy deliberations - a notion Bernanke and others have slammed as a threat to central bank independence from politics. Committee Republicans said they want Yellen to give details on how she will balance the Fed's responsibilities to keep inflation in check while pushing for full employment.

"I'm sure she'll be hearing questions on the lack of effective monetary policy and the impact going forward," said Rep. Scott Garrett, the Republican chairman of the Financial Services' capital markets subcommittee.

Another Republican panel member, Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, said Yellen must do more to help senior citizens build safe investment returns. "No one can create any wealth with interest rates squashed as they are," she said.

PARSING HER WORDS

For all the criticism, most economists blame Congress for slowing the U.S. recovery from recession with cuts to government spending, tax increases and a series of budget battles that tested investors' confidence in the United States.

Frustrated with the recovery, the Fed has launched three rounds of asset purchases, swelling its balance sheet to more than $4 trillion. If the labor market doesn't stumble badly and inflation doesn't weaken, the Fed aims to shelve the purchases by year end and will likely raise rates sometime next year.

The trick for Yellen will be clearly articulating this on live television in a pressure-filled question-and-answer session that is likely to cover anything from Wall Street regulation to fiscal policy and the gold standard.

Markets will be keenly attuned after a few weeks of high volatility sparked by drops in emerging-market currencies, and after a decidedly mixed batch of U.S. data that has raised questions over the economy's strength.

"We'll all be trying to get a sense of how the Fed is reading recent developments," said Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist at Chicago-based Northern Trust. "We have had some news that while it is almost certainly affected by the weather, it has not been robust."

While it is her first public appearance since a Senate nomination hearing in November, Yellen's style is well known on Wall Street after more than three years as the central bank's No. 2 official and six years running the San Francisco Fed. In November, she made plain that aggressive efforts to spur growth and hiring remained important.

This week, she will probably try to again stick to the script ahead of chairing her first Fed policy-setting meeting on March 18-19. Capito said that while she would like Yellen to give more specific answers to questions than her predecessor did, the new chair will likely be spared the contentious jabs Bernanke took from committee Republicans.

"She will be treated respectfully," Capito said. "I don't think there will be a lot of fireworks."
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>From Yale Hirsch:

My 1987 Stock Trader's Almanac was dedicated to THE NEW PROGNOSTICATORS. Mark Leibovit was one of them. I evidently had insight as Timer Digest named Mark the "Number One Market Timer for the 10-year period ending in 2007." For the 10 years ending 2009, he was #2 intermediate Market Timer. He is also their #1 Gold Market Timer for 2011. This book should be REQUIRED READING for anyone who trades.
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Writing a book is an adventure. To begin with it is a toy, an amusement; then it is a mistress, and then a master, and then a tyrant."
-Winston Churchill (British statesman, 1874-1965)

My book,"The Trader's Book of Volume"
(published by McGraw-Hill) is now available
both in English and now CHINESE!

Here is the link to Traders Press:

http://www.invest-store.com/vrtrader/

Here is the link to Amazon.com:

http://tinyurl.com/3wms9q2
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Check out the Debt Clock. It is ticking against all of us:

http://www.usdebtclock.org/index.html
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The 2013 Annual Forecast Model is now on-line. SUBSCRIBE NOW! It is a premium report.
If you call my office by Thursday of this week and leave your name and number, you will be entitled to receive a 50% discount on this valuable report. If you wish to order from the Internet and pay full price, here is the link:

https://www.vrtrader...cribe/index.asp

Here is the 2013 Model:

http://tinyurl.com/mbkg53n

The Annual Forecast Model (The VR Forecaster Report) is published each and every year in early February and comprises Mark Leibovit's proprietary cyclical forecast for the Dow Industrials and Gold. Don't miss the opportunity to see this Report that projects market direction and/or important cyclical change points months in advance. We have called it our 'Blueprint to the Future'. Unique to Mark Leibovit it has been published since the mid 1980s. Access to the report is provided via the website using the username and password provided to you.
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Email her at sandy@sandystranscripts.com and visit www.sandystranscripts.com to learn more.
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The lodge's beautiful red rock setting, with its natural surroundings, pool enclosure and abundant accommodations, offers a secluded resort-like setting many people pay much, much more for at area resorts, but offers that all so important private place to rest and relax away from the crowds, those resorts cannot.

This uniquely built 2 1/4 acre Sedona vacation home is nestled in the northwestern corner of West Sedona not far from Lizard Head Rock and Thunder Mountain. The main house is a spacious 3700 square feet, and along with the additional 1000 square foot guesthouse. The lodge will accommodate up to twelve people very comfortably.
A beautiful Sedona vacation getaway, with wonderful views of the western horizon and the Boynton Canyon area, it is just up the street from trails to Vultee Arch and Devils Bridge and just a few minutes drive from local amenities.

The pool enclosure, with a full size pool, 12' by 12' hot tub and two beehive gas fireplaces, add to the ambiance of this fabulous vacation getaway. The perfect place to relax, the pool area also offers a very private place to enjoy a outdoor massage by one of Sedona's many wonderful massage therapists.

The grounds at the lodge, with its plentiful green grass, native trees and cactus, provide lots of quiet spaces to sit and enjoy your time away from it all and maybe by chance observe a local bird or two. Flagstone walkways meander between the pool and shady mesquite trees to the guesthouse and back, making for a very park-like atmosphere.

Interested? Email me at:

mark.vrtrader@gmail.com.
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