202 replies to this topic

[Russ]

i remember when so called analysts were saying 1500s was a floor for gold . well then india instituted the 80/20 rule and slapped a 10%tax on gold. the trap door was opened and gold fell below 1200
it seems to me one has to be alert and on guard in this market. anything is possible. i have not changed my thinking or my stance, i am a long term gold bull. i do think much higher prices will be seen @some point. right now, the market is oversold and sentiment is @extremes seen @lows.
that doesnt imply the market cant go lower, although the odds are against it right here.
a long time ago , i thought @ some point in the process of fiats being seen for what they are, i thought the dollar would be king for a period. w/japan and the euro as basket cases we are in that time right here right now. how long it lasts is a guess. but when it ends , i think gold will be ready for prime time

china has recently pledged 400billion to india to help build infrastructure. this is significant. imo india is and will be the leader in the gold market. gold is a part of hinduism. india also has refineries and an exchange planned. india, china, and dubai will form the center of the gold market. shanghai market which literally just opened is primarily a physical market
for those who want to hear gatas view on gold market manipulation , chris powell gives his presentation on the larry parks show http://www.gata.org/node/14469
i have my doubts , strong doubts , that this madness lasts until september of 15 , but these are desperate times and that calls for desperate measures.
we are either @or very close to being @ a bottom for gold
dharma

Lots of good stuff you listed amigo. The past few days I have asked myself if anyone, anyone at all is buying or already long and bullish. The answer I seem to come to from reading several forums and commentaries is basically NO ONE. And many are looking for much, much lower prices. Reminds me of 2000/2001, 2008, and last December. A question I ask is who is left to sell? and all the sentiment measurements we use to gauge these things are at major bottom extremes. When seemingly no one is left to sell how low can/will it go? I have a very light 5-10% position, nothing else. Waiting for some near term bullish evidence, nothing yet.

Senor

Perhaps the question to ask is... Who is left to buy the dollar? If the dollar keeps going up then Gold will go down since its priced in US dollars.

Since I have a free trial to Avi Gilburt's site, I thought I would share what he sees with you all...

[img]https://ci5.googleusercontent.com/proxy/c8DEBjR0ktkCqFx96fv3_VT_oMd4ztNBTYdNmrPhShdv7jHZax0waLJgF-1X84zYKXz3mopevGjc2_ASvwl1Ta4bTnXBM90YuYLssbmpG9WmHFo0xGJLJZQvYTRQl0nVhfrbIM5iaY-5290Cb_fFHWdfAVW1tm215xrVXtU=s0-d-e1-ft#http://www.elliottwavetrader.net/images/charts/201409/full-7ae7712a98896e46fe2bee1cc374ec5f8e654db6.jpg[/img]

Edited by Russ, 24 September 2014 - 12:41 PM.

[Russ]

Eric Hadik just sent an update in which he said the Expected Sept. 24th Low Taking Hold, he thinks the 1180 low of last winter will be broken but not until after 2014 so perhaps a rally is due first.


Silver looks to be developing a nice rounding bottom on the 5 hour chart and has not taken out the earlier low on the candlestick chart at this time... http://www.investing...modities/silver

Edited by Russ, 25 September 2014 - 04:57 AM.

[senorBS]

bot a small trading position into the early new decline lows, bottom fishing but to me it looks like and hourly and dail 4/5 subdivision in the miners BSing away Senor

[senorBS]

If they want to get tricky here a case can be made that the gold decline to a new low near 1206 was a B wave and C of a flat takes you up to 1234-1236 then we come down one more time. So far miner response to gold rally is very muted, would prefer to see miners leading here, so for now that FLAT count is on my mind. Senor

[dharma]

bot a small trading position into the early new decline lows, bottom fishing but to me it looks like and hourly and dail 4/5 subdivision in the miners

BSing away

Senor

i am also looking for a low in this time frame. the hourly reversal in the metals , w/new lows for the move, has become a hammer.
w/the sentiment conditions as they are, and w/the sharks working out of their short positions. (tomorrows cot ,ends as of tuesday so it never really reflects thier latest holdings)
i suspect the banksters have worked to a long position , while the large specs have continued to work on getting short.
i am looking for a multi week rally to work off this lopsided condition . every time, in the past, the sentiment got lopsided(and this is a very extreme situation this time) gold had a rally. maybe this time will be different??????
i have this as a finishing wave right here.
i read marty every day, i find his comments unique and provocative. but i take his trading w/a grain of salt. no one is always right. he got into trouble w/his trading back when
as i said before i dont see new lows in 14 and they may not come in 15 either. the wheeler cycle starts ramping up in 15
but lets see how this rally , if it comes develops. then 15 will come into focus
i do think the dollar will get to an unreasonable price(creating trade deficits and other problems). do you think the bombing of isis in syria has folks sitting easy. interesting we attacked syria 1st! and the saudis and uae joined the fray. syria has stood in the way of constructing a pipe connecting saudi arabia to europe thus providing competition for the russians! @ one point it was said that isis was funded by the usa and saudis! hmmmm

as for the broad market.w/all the stock buy backs, there is less supply. it also affords the large holders to get out of a stock , w/o pushing the price down. i do think the broads go higher, but i think october brings a larger correction.
tomorrow is expiration. so the games may not be over
caution is warranted.
dharma

[senorBS]

bot a small trading position into the early new decline lows, bottom fishing but to me it looks like and hourly and dail 4/5 subdivision in the miners

BSing away

Senor

i am also looking for a low in this time frame. the hourly reversal in the metals , w/new lows for the move, has become a hammer.
w/the sentiment conditions as they are, and w/the sharks working out of their short positions. (tomorrows cot ,ends as of tuesday so it never really reflects thier latest holdings)
i suspect the banksters have worked to a long position , while the large specs have continued to work on getting short.
i am looking for a multi week rally to work off this lopsided condition . every time, in the past, the sentiment got lopsided(and this is a very extreme situation this time) gold had a rally. maybe this time will be different??????
i have this as a finishing wave right here.
i read marty every day, i find his comments unique and provocative. but i take his trading w/a grain of salt. no one is always right. he got into trouble w/his trading back when
as i said before i dont see new lows in 14 and they may not come in 15 either. the wheeler cycle starts ramping up in 15
but lets see how this rally , if it comes develops. then 15 will come into focus
i do think the dollar will get to an unreasonable price(creating trade deficits and other problems). do you think the bombing of isis in syria has folks sitting easy. interesting we attacked syria 1st! and the saudis and uae joined the fray. syria has stood in the way of constructing a pipe connecting saudi arabia to europe thus providing competition for the russians! @ one point it was said that isis was funded by the usa and saudis! hmmmm

as for the broad market.w/all the stock buy backs, there is less supply. it also affords the large holders to get out of a stock , w/o pushing the price down. i do think the broads go higher, but i think october brings a larger correction.
tomorrow is expiration. so the games may not be over
caution is warranted.
dharma

Dharma I agree with everything except "maybe" and I stress "maybe" the stock market, as that last high looked awful technically and could have been at least a medium term completion pattern. The Dow/S&P is now at a critical juncture as there are no excuses for bearish case, they should be in a large third wave down after yesterdays wave 2 or B corrective rally. If it's a wave 3 a lot lower to go, if a wave C it could bottom fairly soon. I vote for a 3 but this stock market has been s resilient it is tough to have any real bearish confidence.

Senor

[dharma]

bot a small trading position into the early new decline lows, bottom fishing but to me it looks like and hourly and dail 4/5 subdivision in the miners

BSing away

Senor

i am also looking for a low in this time frame. the hourly reversal in the metals , w/new lows for the move, has become a hammer.
w/the sentiment conditions as they are, and w/the sharks working out of their short positions. (tomorrows cot ,ends as of tuesday so it never really reflects thier latest holdings)
i suspect the banksters have worked to a long position , while the large specs have continued to work on getting short.
i am looking for a multi week rally to work off this lopsided condition . every time, in the past, the sentiment got lopsided(and this is a very extreme situation this time) gold had a rally. maybe this time will be different??????
i have this as a finishing wave right here.
i read marty every day, i find his comments unique and provocative. but i take his trading w/a grain of salt. no one is always right. he got into trouble w/his trading back when
as i said before i dont see new lows in 14 and they may not come in 15 either. the wheeler cycle starts ramping up in 15
but lets see how this rally , if it comes develops. then 15 will come into focus
i do think the dollar will get to an unreasonable price(creating trade deficits and other problems). do you think the bombing of isis in syria has folks sitting easy. interesting we attacked syria 1st! and the saudis and uae joined the fray. syria has stood in the way of constructing a pipe connecting saudi arabia to europe thus providing competition for the russians! @ one point it was said that isis was funded by the usa and saudis! hmmmm

as for the broad market.w/all the stock buy backs, there is less supply. it also affords the large holders to get out of a stock , w/o pushing the price down. i do think the broads go higher, but i think october brings a larger correction.
tomorrow is expiration. so the games may not be over
caution is warranted.
dharma

Dharma I agree with everything except "maybe" and I stress "maybe" the stock market, as that last high looked awful technically and could have been at least a medium term completion pattern. The Dow/S&P is now at a critical juncture as there are no excuses for bearish case, they should be in a large third wave down after yesterdays wave 2 or B corrective rally. If it's a wave 3 a lot lower to go, if a wave C it could bottom fairly soon. I vote for a 3 but this stock market has been s resilient it is tough to have any real bearish confidence.

Senor

senor not that i disagree w/you . the last up leg looks very extended , and i am referring to the 09 lows. this top reminds me more and more like 87, i bet the ranceh then i am contemplating a large position. however, i think money is on the move worldwide. hollande has instituted such high taxes in france that money has no choice but to flee. europe as a whole is talking about a 10% tax on bank accounts. the money is being forced into the dollar and the major averages. so i am thinking it may only be 10% , but who knows. i do see margin debt had a big spurt recently. sure seems ripe to me
the cost of production zone for miners- http://www.reuters.c...N0HK0CR20140925 this is the reality. mining is a biz . while shuttering a mine is expensive , it may be the only choice some miners have. i do think there will be less supply and the ceo of goldcorp says we are @peak gold
dharma

[Russ]

Eddie's chart with some additions, notice how the previous big low with cmf saw the cycle invert as now. Also if you draw a line off the two tops and now probably two bottoms - you have a channel , gold could go back to the top of the channel

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&i=p08671132502&a=312479314&r=1411660921228.png

Edited by Russ, 25 September 2014 - 11:09 AM.

[dougie]

juniors diverge with seniors and gold

[dharma]

broad market on the skids this rally will be revealing. the sentiment is just so bearish, hard not to imagine a decent move dharma