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#1 Stickan

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Posted 30 October 2003 - 04:51 AM

I have been out f town for a couple of days and not able to comment on comments on my previous posts. The topics are now a little old, so I have compiled a few questions for Blu instead. I hope you will take the time to answer a few of them.

What do we need, for you to admitt that the correction you are talking about, will not happen?

How do you know that the cycles you are talking about have not inversed. I.E are pointing UP no DOWN?

What are the bearish implications of XAU gapping UP into new HIGH yesterday?

What are the bearish implications of the Bullish engulfing pattern in Dec gold yesterday?

How far DOWN do you recon these stocks are heading for?
Why should they correct?

Posted Image

They say a picture is worth a thousand words. We have your words, how about a chart?

As I write this, gold jumped another + 3.50 in London, Is that a sell signal?

I found this ewave count on the web, as per yesterday, and I find it relevant and a correct count.
I have now showed you mine.
Will you show me yours?
regards
Stig
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#2 rono

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Posted 30 October 2003 - 08:32 AM

Great stuff stickan, I'm fairly new in these parts, but it's the same thing over at fundalarm - there exist those people who do not believe that pm's can make a run or are a decent investment or even a speculation. Several of us have been touting them for well over a year and making money and kicking butt - but the disbelievers still don't believe . . . and probably never will. Geez, we had folks that thought the market was overbought in 95, 96, 97, 98, etc., and missed the greatest bull market in history. I know folks that are still waiting to get back in today. Hell, I was back in this past spring and have been winning ever since. In my case, I don't even consider myself a gold bug. I'm just a momentum investor that tries to identify trends that I can invest in and ride. And while we must have an exit strategy, and I do, THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND. And that is what applies to precious metals - now class, repeat after me, 'THE TREND IS MY FRIEND, THE TREND IS MY FRIEND, THE TREND IS MY FRIEND'. again, thanks for the great charts - nothing quite beats a pretty picture, best, rono

#3 blustar

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Posted 30 October 2003 - 12:56 PM

I don't have time to post charts. Look at the ADX daily on gold: it is falling. There are many indicators failing here such as the A/D in gold stocks, MACD and the commercial shorts are way to high. What you are looking at is the HUI. It is about the only index making higher highs here. While that is bullish longer term, I view it as the market is getting thin here. Also the dollar is turning up, and that is bad for gold. Another thing is gold and stocks have been trading almost in tandem because of liquidity. That liquidity is about dried up and margin debt is way too high here. Watch the savvy traders shake out both the stock market and gold market into Nov 20th for the stock market and around Nov 25 for the gold market. On a % basis, I think the gold longs will get hit worse than stocks. That is where all the money has been made this year. On an e-wave basis, I see this current move up as a "b" wave of a declining C Wave. It also looks like it tracing out an a-b-c upmove of itself. Charters call this a classic "double top" and that portends a "double top reversal". I've seen them before and they can be mean. I believe the only game in town will be bonds short term. I'm sorry. I won't comment anymore on this issue. blessings, blustar

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blu

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#4 teki

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Posted 30 October 2003 - 01:39 PM

I believe the only game in town will be bonds short term


Blu,

I take it you mean long the long bond price, correct. Do you have a wave count you are working with here. I see the potential for a wave 3 down, or maybe in the very short term, a C of 2 up from the 105.69 low of mid-October up to around 114 or so, and then the wave 3 down. (In terms of $USB)

I am sitting on the sidelines for now on the long bond, as both scenarios seem to be vying for attention.

#5 calb

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Posted 30 October 2003 - 01:42 PM

my timer guy got me in metals april of 2001. Thought he was nuts but it's been the easest play out there. trends all come to an end and good timer can see these as he has several times by taking proftis at or near interum tops many times. the trend is your friend until it ends, rants on message boars about trends are a big joke

#6 blustar

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Posted 30 October 2003 - 02:02 PM

We could see a couple more days to the upside and even hit $400+ and I would still say "bale into strength"! As far as the e-wave analysis on bonds, I don't really look at the microscopic waves there as I do in the stock market. I believe we are in an a-b-c upmove that will take us to about 115 on the long bond sometime around early/mid Dec. We are in c of that wave. The trend is your friend and that is to be long bonds and getting ready to short stocks and gold. blustar

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blu

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#7 Guest_rleslie66_*

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Posted 30 October 2003 - 04:39 PM

Well Blu, I am certainly impressed that you answered my "is gold manipulated" question with a bearish prediction, and gold dropped $7! However I will say that I believe the 1st tier mining stocks to be steadily going into stronger hands. I can remember only a few months ago when NEM would have been dropped more than 50c on a $7 drop in POG. IMO the fundamentals are good, as long as the dollar continues to weaken, and with our existing trade and federal deficits, it will. GOLD is money, paper currency is just fiat money.

#8 blustar

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Posted 31 October 2003 - 01:13 PM

The coming top in gold reminds me of the June 4, 2002 top, when the XAU took out some 37% in 7-8 weeks and some of the juniors got taken out and shot being down some 60-70%. I believe both stock market and gold ares coming down hard (as they did from June-July 2002) as the dollar rallies back to late March top near 102. I see a liquidity crises developing as banks are selling their T-bills like there is no tomorrow and money supply growth has all but halted to about 1% from the teens. Take your gold stocks all the way back to the bottom in March 2003 and that is where I believe we are going by late year or early in the new year. BGO could go back to $1.25 (minimum $2) when the dust clears. blustar

Blessings,

 

blu

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