3 replies to this topic

[CRUISENAL]

Again we end the month of June with the price getting close to the 10 SMA but no close below it like I expected. However, June's candle was typical of the type of candle I saw at the tops of 2000 & 2007 and the next months candle, or July's closing candle, could be a possible Short signal long term. What has to happen is we get a candle on July 31 that closes below the Monthly 10 SMA. So two scenarios pop out at me. For this to happen I think we need to see the SPX selloff more and recover into July 31 but close below the 10 SMA. The second possibility is that we are going to bounce here in July much like August 2000. Either can happen but the key will be to either scenario is which was we go from here. If we start dropping below the daily 200 to like 2020 or 2000 or even 1977, then we know the first idea is in play. If we start heading up and the 200 was support, then #2 is in play. In either case, the odds at this point in time and IMHO, are that we have maybe 6-8 weeks before the real move down starts to take place. It could be early August or September but no way to tell until it sets up.

[redfoliage2]

Today market operators tried to prop up the market with a fake story about the Greece issue. However, SPX has developed a head and shoulders top on the daily, so does DJI. There may be a bounce for tomorrow but selling bounces should work well ......

Edited by redfoliage2, 01 July 2015 - 03:12 PM.

[CRUISENAL]

Red, I agree. Looks like on 60 min chart a ABC off the low yesterday. Just started C and I think 2090-2095 area it will turn down. But that may not get going until Monday. I think a good bet is to be Short the close tomorrow or intra day if those levels are met and reverses intraday. My gut says it closes on a daily high, then down Monday.

[dougie]

seems like both of your scenarios will in some fashion come true;drop below 200 day hard then recover into Sept