143 replies to this topic

[dharma]

there is not much that is bullish out there. @this point there isnt supposed to be 2 things caught my eye yesterday there was a drawdown of 1.64% in gld holdings whenever there has been more than a 1% drawdown within 3 days there has @least been a boune the other thing is the pattern on the charts could be a diagonal triange which could be very close to ending dharma

[dharma]

HGNSI was unchanged on Thursday at -30% (but obviously fell Friday) MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus fell a point on Friday to 31% which is its lowest level since 30% was hit back in March the DSI fell 4 points to 10%. The DSI indicator typically hits single digits at important lows and has hit its record low of “3%” near the nadir for the Gold price after each new 52-week low in Gold that we’ve seen since the 2011 peak (Monday just might see that level!) not much that positive for gold 360x3=1080 so its important support 1033 is also very important dharma

[dharma]

sentiment
HGNSI unchanged on Friday at -30% MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus fell 2 points today to a new bear market low of 29%
DSI fell to 5% (almost to 3% but no cigar).
august gold contract exceeded 200k contracts in just one day. epic
miners are selling @the same price when gold was 300 oz way overdone. hated
http://www.graceland...015jul21mk1.png keep in mind this guy has written 3 books on techinical analysis

this from stewart thompson this am
The reason Martin Armstrong spent 7 years in the clink was that he didn't understand real risk and potential reward properly. It's the same reason that he bashes gold bugs for buying now, when there is 200 - $400 of real risk, versus $4000 of reward, basis his own scenario. Only an utter moron tries to use market timing in this situation to avoid $400 of risk but to capture $4000 of gain.
Let me repeat: If you want to understand why Armstrong is so negative on gold bugs, but has such a high upside target for gold, you need to look closely at why he took the huge regulatory risks he did managing money, risks that could have been easily avoided by operating as an analyst rather than as a fund manager. He claims he "bought accounts". That's a bunch of garbage. He needed proper licensing to manage the money he managed, and he didn't have it. He wasn't running a hedge fund. He acted like he was, but there was no fund. That's the sole reason he went to the clink. Yes, the banks used him as their fall guy, but that's separate from the risks he took to make himself their fall guy. He took massive risk that he didn't need to take. It's that simple, and he's telling gold bugs to do something similar now with the world's ultimate asset; avoid it until his "ultimate moment". Wrong. All wrong.

dharma

[dharma]

what is interesting to me is a one time deal on the sge of massive volume on a sunday night bombing run and no chinese official or anyone else is brought forward!
other bouts of corruption in china are met w/ more than a scolding or nominal fine.
venus goes retrograde on the 26th i think next week will mark the turn
will it be THE bottom?
damned if i know , but i do think this area will produce at least a good bounce.
the game , based on all the previous significant lows is not on, until the miners lead
are the commercials net long? this cot will give us a better idea. as of yesterdays close
gold market is still a falling knife. gotta be patient and not let the low #s be tempting
apparently miners have valueless moose pasture.
miners are still way out of favor.
this chart is different from the standard gold seasonal chart , note the august low
http://www.graceland...2015jul7gs1.png
soon festival buying begins in india.
dharma

[dharma]

if gld closes red today it will be 8 days in a row which will tie it for the longest streak ever dharma

[AChartist]

I still cannot buy coins, the lowest I remember was $98's per 5 oz silver, today high 97's. They might end up seeing a 62% premium if you wanted your fibanocci. That will be one idea I watch for a bottom. There is no way to make money on this. It may be to wait for bottom and short the 3x short funds, which of course I don't know where or when a paper low is but will start paying more attention to the idea of shorting the 3x short. It would take a lot of good evidence which we probably have some people here that will contribute.

[dharma]

i am looking for a bounce to begin next week, there could be more pressure today and tomorrow. but, after that i look for a bounce. yesterday tied a record for consecutive down days =8days in a row. today could beat that record. the selling is getting extreme is my point the market is oversold out to the monthly charts. the market is unable to generate any kind of bounce @this point it is a slippery slope the goldilocks economy chugs on , but the fantasies are becoming more transparent. we are in hadiks time frame . till the 31st of july w/july 17th optimum time for the low. me i am sitting on my hands watching looking for clues. the shorts have pressed the issue. now do they get fatter or do they get slaughtered , which is what usually happens. the commercials getting long is another clue dharma

[dharma]

today sets a new record 9 days straight of down closes on the gld
for many miners gold is now below the cost of production
we are experiencing capitulation.
http://dollarcollaps...y-capitulating/
if eric is correct then 31st is the end of his time frame
dhrma

[dharma]

thomson What is not ok with the gold community, with a few idiotic exceptions, is for Armstrong to claim that gold is not manipulated, and it's not falling because of manipulation. To ice the bank manipulation cake, to have a manipulator of client funds, convicted and jailed for securities fraud, claiming there's no serious manipulation in gold, is just way "over the top".
and for Martin Armstrong, who manipulated $700 million in investor money into his bank accounts, and ran a $3 billion Ponzi scheme by paying back investors with other investors' money, to predict that gold will decline is actually.... AOK.- and that is the reason they locked him up! not as he claims they wanted code
sentiment
HGNSI was unchanged yesterday at -30%
MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus was unchanged today at 28%
DSI was unchanged at 8%.
to me this has bearish implications. it says that despite declining prices the bugs did not give up!
then we have the charts oversold out to monthlies.
usually in a market , it gets way oversold , the bears press it. and then a rally ensues which forces the new bears to take cover
which is what i think happens next week
the indian festival season begins in september, and unless the banksters come up w/ a plan, the buying w/the lower prices
should be grand.
the buying begins sometime in august for now i have switched to the futures seasonal chart for gold http://www.graceland...2015jul7gs1.png
the seasonal chart for spot has its low in july .
dhamra

[dharma]

here are the cots
http://news.goldseek.../1437766313.php
as we suspected and keep in mind this doesnt include wednesday , thursday , and today
commercials could very well be long on next weeks cot
dharma