are bottoming now in a wave2
#1
Posted 04 November 2015 - 10:30 AM
sentiment for the day before yesterday:
HGNSI fell 6.7 points yesterday to -6.7%.
MarketVane’s bullish consensus fell 2 points to 34% yesterday
and the DSI fell 4 points to 8%, which is its lowest level since hitting 5% back on the July low...
not usually a place where a leg down occurs. and if oscillators are any indication, we are oversold
the miners have remained firm during the whole decline. which is what bulls want to see. miners leading
as long as paper gold controls the market , then this wash/rinse/repeat cycle will be in play.
its why the building of new infrastructure is key for the gold market
2 chinese banks are now part of lbma fix
and the shanghai gold fix will be instituted before long
an indian has bought viacambi .
slowly slowly there is change in structure, it will take time
now hadik has been championed the 40yr cycle, gold last bottomed in august of 1976 , and yet he was looking for july 15 for the low
40 yrs is obviously a long time and the cycle has lee way on both sides.
we shall see
dharma
#2
Posted 04 November 2015 - 12:01 PM
hadik has been and is looking for a november low. the oscillators are oversold for gold and the miners remain firm. demand for silver in india is off the charts. i have read reports where jpm has bought and horded an outsized silver stockpile. ? i dont know , but its what i read. the bit coin https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin has gone parabolic, chinese gamblers have joined the fray as they will w/gold once the move gets underway , whenever that is. in the 4 stage model, i believe we are still in stage 1 lots of opinions either way , i dont have a strong opinion by my leaning is we are in wave 2 here.
sentiment for the day before yesterday:
HGNSI fell 6.7 points yesterday to -6.7%.
MarketVane’s bullish consensus fell 2 points to 34% yesterday
and the DSI fell 4 points to 8%, which is its lowest level since hitting 5% back on the July low...
not usually a place where a leg down occurs. and if oscillators are any indication, we are oversold
the miners have remained firm during the whole decline. which is what bulls want to see. miners leading
as long as paper gold controls the market , then this wash/rinse/repeat cycle will be in play.
its why the building of new infrastructure is key for the gold market
2 chinese banks are now part of lbma fix
and the shanghai gold fix will be instituted before long
an indian has bought viacambi .
slowly slowly there is change in structure, it will take time
now hadik has been championed the 40yr cycle, gold last bottomed in august of 1976 , and yet he was looking for july 15 for the low
40 yrs is obviously a long time and the cycle has lee way on both sides.
we shall see
dharma
Hola amigo, for me gold is the most difficult and convoluted count. Silver may have 5 up daily from just below 14 to the recent highs, a .618 retrace is near 14.88, I can count many individual miners and some indices/ETFs as 5 up from their respective lows - not as clean as I'd like but valid IMO. So far the miner relative strength looks bullish IMO. I have two counts in gold, one is we need a new decline low modestly below 1077 to complete a large diagonal triangle - the "tricky"count is that the most recent large leg up was a "b" wave from the daily secondary low near 1098 so we need to go just below 1098 to end C of an "abc" irregular flat. My two best guesses in gold at this time. I have been staying away from this sector totally, but it in not garnering my "interest" but not my buying yet. BTW the irregular count would allow the July gold low to hold and is essence give us a higher secondary low or retest into Hadik's cycle low. Lets see how it unfolds
BSing away
Senor
#3
Posted 04 November 2015 - 12:20 PM
Edited by dharma, 04 November 2015 - 12:22 PM.
#4
Posted 04 November 2015 - 12:22 PM
#5
Posted 04 November 2015 - 01:27 PM
#6
Posted 04 November 2015 - 03:33 PM
#7
Posted 04 November 2015 - 03:38 PM
johngeorge
#8
Posted 05 November 2015 - 12:13 AM
#9
Posted 05 November 2015 - 07:22 AM
Dharma wrote:hadik has been and is looking for a november low. the oscillators are oversold for gold and the miners remain firm
Hi Dharma.... does not look to me like the oscillators are oversold yet...
http://stockcharts.c...46726112793.png
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong
http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/
#10
Posted 05 November 2015 - 10:52 AM
8bar wilder rsi oversold
dsi down to 7 low was 5
this is and has been the pattern the week of the jobs report they slam gold and then the jobs report comes and gold blasts out of the hole.
wash, rinse , repeat
yesterday saw a .9 drawdown in gld. 1%or > has marked bottoms within 2-3 days , so we are close. the gap on the gdx is close to be being filled. and gdx appears to be making an inverse h&s pattern, but its still in the picasso stage
this one chart tells the story http://gracelandupda.../2015nov5mv.png velocity of money is @great depression #s its what 0 interest rates do, they also allow govt to expand which has happened
chinas demand for gold has increased 7.8 % indias gjf w/over 300000 members feels they can pressure jaitley to lower rates from 10%-2% jaitley has turned a deaf ear they think they can achieve this by dec-i am not holding my breath on this one. mobsters have alot of room o operate w/a 10% tariff+
in my opinion we are close here to ending this wave 2 we shall see.
tomorrows cots wont reveal much as they are inclusive of tuesday
yellen appears to still have everyones ears . for how much longer????
gannman- its what i see too. i want to also see more broad baed commodity participation
the bull move in stocks is very long in the tooth in the 10yr cycle yr 5 is usually bullish
dharma
oh yeah, and the miners remain firm. might they be sold out????????????????
Edited by dharma, 05 November 2015 - 10:57 AM.