144 replies to this topic

[dharma]

hadik has been and is looking for a november low. the oscillators are oversold for gold and the miners remain firm. demand for silver in india is off the charts. i have read reports where jpm has bought and horded an outsized silver stockpile. ? i dont know , but its what i read. the bit coin https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin has gone parabolic, chinese gamblers have joined the fray as they will w/gold once the move gets underway , whenever that is. in the 4 stage model, i believe we are still in stage 1 lots of opinions either way , i dont have a strong opinion by my leaning is we are in wave 2 here.
sentiment for the day before yesterday:
HGNSI fell 6.7 points yesterday to -6.7%.
MarketVane’s bullish consensus fell 2 points to 34% yesterday
and the DSI fell 4 points to 8%, which is its lowest level since hitting 5% back on the July low...
not usually a place where a leg down occurs. and if oscillators are any indication, we are oversold
the miners have remained firm during the whole decline. which is what bulls want to see. miners leading
as long as paper gold controls the market , then this wash/rinse/repeat cycle will be in play.
its why the building of new infrastructure is key for the gold market
2 chinese banks are now part of lbma fix
and the shanghai gold fix will be instituted before long
an indian has bought viacambi .
slowly slowly there is change in structure, it will take time
now hadik has been championed the 40yr cycle, gold last bottomed in august of 1976 , and yet he was looking for july 15 for the low
40 yrs is obviously a long time and the cycle has lee way on both sides.
we shall see
dharma

[senorBS]

hadik has been and is looking for a november low. the oscillators are oversold for gold and the miners remain firm. demand for silver in india is off the charts. i have read reports where jpm has bought and horded an outsized silver stockpile. ? i dont know , but its what i read. the bit coin https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin has gone parabolic, chinese gamblers have joined the fray as they will w/gold once the move gets underway , whenever that is. in the 4 stage model, i believe we are still in stage 1 lots of opinions either way , i dont have a strong opinion by my leaning is we are in wave 2 here.
sentiment for the day before yesterday:
HGNSI fell 6.7 points yesterday to -6.7%.
MarketVane’s bullish consensus fell 2 points to 34% yesterday
and the DSI fell 4 points to 8%, which is its lowest level since hitting 5% back on the July low...
not usually a place where a leg down occurs. and if oscillators are any indication, we are oversold
the miners have remained firm during the whole decline. which is what bulls want to see. miners leading
as long as paper gold controls the market , then this wash/rinse/repeat cycle will be in play.
its why the building of new infrastructure is key for the gold market
2 chinese banks are now part of lbma fix
and the shanghai gold fix will be instituted before long
an indian has bought viacambi .
slowly slowly there is change in structure, it will take time
now hadik has been championed the 40yr cycle, gold last bottomed in august of 1976 , and yet he was looking for july 15 for the low
40 yrs is obviously a long time and the cycle has lee way on both sides.
we shall see
dharma

Hola amigo, for me gold is the most difficult and convoluted count. Silver may have 5 up daily from just below 14 to the recent highs, a .618 retrace is near 14.88, I can count many individual miners and some indices/ETFs as 5 up from their respective lows - not as clean as I'd like but valid IMO. So far the miner relative strength looks bullish IMO. I have two counts in gold, one is we need a new decline low modestly below 1077 to complete a large diagonal triangle - the "tricky"count is that the most recent large leg up was a "b" wave from the daily secondary low near 1098 so we need to go just below 1098 to end C of an "abc" irregular flat. My two best guesses in gold at this time. I have been staying away from this sector totally, but it in not garnering my "interest" but not my buying yet. BTW the irregular count would allow the July gold low to hold and is essence give us a higher secondary low or retest into Hadik's cycle low. Lets see how it unfolds

BSing away

Senor

[dharma]

senor thanks for your well thought out post i am watching 1108 , that # begins the price cycle and should provide very good support and a low, if it breaks then 1093 comes into play w/1079 being the death zone for that price cycle i dont see a way out of this debt cycle spiral, no cb is talking about cutting deficits, yes they want the greeks , spanish, portugese etc to cut but not the eu, fed, or boj. the mountain of debt is a drag on the economy. thus 0 rates , which are causing a multitude of other problems. i pick off miners when they are oversold and in support , i will be patient, if it looks like the market is swooning, then i hedge. the game is changing , slowly. i am patient and not playing w/large % @ this point. the miners remaining firm on this decline, for me is a sign, they are under accumulation. they may be sold out. i also believe w/all the talk of rate hikes over many months. this has been discounted in the gold price. and i dont know who is perpetrating the talk rate hikes are bearish for gold, history does not bear that out. dharma

Edited by dharma, 04 November 2015 - 12:22 PM.

[dougie]

Hadik is hedging bets and says new lows might well be in store now

[senorBS]

I often buy too early so this time I am going to watch my key price levels and await at least a decisive short term move off a potential low if that happens, no falling knives for me. I have no positions in the metals at this time so it's popcorn and watch the action time what I think are bullish counts in silver-platinum-palladium IMO support the case for a gold low somewhere in the 1090-1415 area, but again that's just a key area for me to WATCH, not act, give me a nice short term reversal off a low in that area and that is when action may be warranted BSing away Senor

[dharma]

this is the pattern every month going into the jobs # . yes, when watching gold its good to keep an eye on all the commodities. gold gets its base from other commodities. yellen out saying december is on the table. how long will they continue this game? how long will people keep listening. the economy is weak the broad market levitates . the next move by the fed is a stimulus. draghi will do more qe abe/economics is doing more qe . dharma

[johngeorge]

For now I am probably at the lowest % of assets invested in mining stocks in a long time. My mining stock investments include 1 major with the balance being explorers and juniors. I did place a small hedge bet yesterday buying DUST. In watchful waiting looking for some buying perhaps towards the end of the year and/or first part of next year. Will see.

[gannman]

like senor says i see 5 up in some of the miners, aem, nem , gold and fnv i think this is a wave ii finishing in the miners as you say and the final low in gld gold releases earning 2 am tonight so lets see how the stock acts tomorrow

[Russ]

Dharma wrote:hadik has been and is looking for a november low. the oscillators are oversold for gold and the miners remain firm

Hi Dharma.... does not look to me like the oscillators are oversold yet...


http://stockcharts.c...46726112793.png

[dharma]

hi russ, 14,3,3 stochs oversold
8bar wilder rsi oversold
dsi down to 7 low was 5
this is and has been the pattern the week of the jobs report they slam gold and then the jobs report comes and gold blasts out of the hole.
wash, rinse , repeat
yesterday saw a .9 drawdown in gld. 1%or > has marked bottoms within 2-3 days , so we are close. the gap on the gdx is close to be being filled. and gdx appears to be making an inverse h&s pattern, but its still in the picasso stage
this one chart tells the story http://gracelandupda.../2015nov5mv.png velocity of money is @great depression #s its what 0 interest rates do, they also allow govt to expand which has happened
chinas demand for gold has increased 7.8 % indias gjf w/over 300000 members feels they can pressure jaitley to lower rates from 10%-2% jaitley has turned a deaf ear they think they can achieve this by dec-i am not holding my breath on this one. mobsters have alot of room o operate w/a 10% tariff+
in my opinion we are close here to ending this wave 2 we shall see.
tomorrows cots wont reveal much as they are inclusive of tuesday
yellen appears to still have everyones ears . for how much longer????
gannman- its what i see too. i want to also see more broad baed commodity participation
the bull move in stocks is very long in the tooth in the 10yr cycle yr 5 is usually bullish
dharma
oh yeah, and the miners remain firm. might they be sold out????????????????

Edited by dharma, 05 November 2015 - 10:57 AM.