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the gold market has changed


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#1 dharma

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Posted 29 February 2016 - 10:40 AM

well the indian budget is out jaitley slapped a 1% tariff on gold jewelry and raised the tariff on dore bard from8% to 8.75%

so far corrections in the gdx have been 1 day.  

the pennant should it continue to take shape and get activated projects to over 1300 

i am not doing anything i sold a couple of things and then added to pvg

i have april/may as a correction so i will buy some things then , should the market accommodate me

silver is lagging and not very interesting. its time is later in the cycle. it will have its day. but apparently not yet

its the vehicle the banksters feast on . i have read several reports indicating jpm has a sizable position in silver

yes, i see the commercials are increasing their short positions in gold and it seems to me it will bring on a correction

but when? and how big will they stretch their shorts

for now shanghai is scheduled to open its gold exchange in april. and that will be a positive factor on the market

dharma



#2 dharma

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Posted 29 February 2016 - 03:55 PM

the ism manufacturing # comes out this week

i expect to show manufacturing below 50= contracting

friday is the jobs # which i also think reflects contracting= fed will put raising rates on hold

dharma

cautious, in here. the cots have me w/my hands in my pockets



#3 gannman

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Posted 29 February 2016 - 05:08 PM

i look at the cot and then every time they try to sell it it is very shallow

 

i think there is a chance i hope that we get a blow off day to the upside with huge volume

 

at which point i will be basically clean . been a great run for us


feeling mellow with the yellow metal


#4 dougie

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Posted 01 March 2016 - 01:31 AM

COTs dont ALWAYS work. mostly they do over time for sure



#5 dougie

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Posted 01 March 2016 - 01:46 AM

Best month ever?



#6 dharma

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Posted 01 March 2016 - 11:41 AM

in the past , whenever the miners make new highs gold follows.  that has yet to happen here

the sentiment #s are from past tops so the market is not overly bullish

 HGNSI was unchanged at 15.63% on Friday

 MarketVane’s bullish consensus fell one point to 47%

 DSI fell 6 points to 61%.

dougie, true, i stated a little while back that @ some point in this bull the commercials will get to 300k short

so, although folks have drawn a line that this is the shortest the commercials will get, i dont think it is so

 

there has been more cash coming into the sector this year then in past bear market years. w/negative rates in many countries gold offers a safe haven, and the argument of paying no interest is better than the banks charging you to store your money

any way , gold is in a potential pennant here , which projects over 1300 . seasonally march is not a good month. and now w/the 1% tax on indian jewelry, the tax soaked jewelers have called for a nationwide strike starting today, so , that removes the potential of a really big buyer.  if the market gains momentum it may encourage the chinese buyers, which also are in a lull period after chinese new years

dharma

yes, fundamentals are real

also the gld has 777 tons. which is >than it was in 15 . = higher prices should be a reality


Edited by dharma, 01 March 2016 - 11:44 AM.


#7 dougie

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Posted 01 March 2016 - 12:05 PM

looks like conditons are right for a nl pullback here.

also braod market topping action imo



#8 dharma

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Posted 01 March 2016 - 02:08 PM

pierre lasonde 

http://www.kitco.com...lds-Main-Driver

new higher price cycle starts 1229 that imo is an indicator 1213 ends the last price cycle

dharma


Edited by dharma, 01 March 2016 - 02:08 PM.


#9 dharma

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Posted 02 March 2016 - 10:09 AM

anyone else notice, the miners have had down days, but they have only lasted one day, then a rally after the down day

also , the gld keeps building its holdings. these are not signs of a bear market folks

w/the bank econs calling for an end to the commodity bear market before this year is through,  investors have stepped up to the plate

also, yesterday the ceo of glencore called the bottom of the commodity bear

in march it looks bleak for gold , through my eyes.  the indian jewelers went on strike yesterday protesting the tax on gold jewelry items, the chinese new year is just in the rear view mirror, and seasonally march is a weak month

yet @ this point the gld is building its gold reserves-another 7 tonnes yesterday

yes, there will be big corrections (wave 2) but the trend is up , and i expect @ some point the 1264 high will be taken out

a bull climbs a wall of worry

watch the dollar/yen trade for clues

dharma

the feds fisher was out yesterday talking up inflation and bashing the $$


Edited by dharma, 02 March 2016 - 10:11 AM.


#10 johngeorge

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Posted 02 March 2016 - 10:27 AM

dharma

 

"watch the dollar/yen trade for clues"

 

As if by magic the yen just turned higher against the $US. guru.gif  From my FWIW department today is a major Bradley turn date.  Thanks for the thread. smile.png

 

http://kirklindstrom...-Dates-2016.png

 

1006-2016-Bradley-Turn-Dates-2016.png


Peace
johngeorge