104 replies to this topic

[tria]

Thank you JG.

[dharma]

gld build again yesterday

gold has now made a new yearly high, pulled up by the miners, who are leading

it seems to me there are alot of factors that indicate a change in trend

and as i have said , the commercials will be  carrying 300k  shorts during the bull

they will be overwhelmed by indian jewelers/chinese investors and gamblers, and dubai middle east investors

hadik has said saudi arabia/syria will see problems  in 16, its not a stretch to see that. saudis are already fighting the yemens

i sold some things this morning and i bought some things. net sold more than i bought.

this price cycle ends 1341 . now i am not saying this is the target necessarily, but it could be 

1277,1293,1309(this one is a target)  we are running out of time on this cycle . 

in elliott terms is this 5of 3 of 1 ? or is this 5? 

for now i am wearing the bull hat, but i do see a correction and  a low in mid april and then again in july.

well its official canada sold all its gold https://www.goldbrok...ld-reserves-921

 Goldcorp Reset Suggests Opportunity for Explorers

Goldcorp put out 2015 results, updated its reserve count, and provided new guidance for 2016. All were terrible.
The company recorded a full year loss of US$4.1 million, mostly because it recorded a US$4.9 billion impairment in the fourth quarter. It wasn’t one failed project. Half the impairment stemmed from reduced reserves after altering their long-term price to US$1,100 from US$1,300 per oz. The rest came from joint ventures, exploration efforts, and goodwill all worth less now than they were a year ago.
The change to Goldcorp’s reserve is significant, for the company and for what it says about the sector. Based on that lower gold price, Goldcorp’s proven and probable reserves dropped 18% or 8.3 million oz. to 40.7 million oz. The average reserve grade climbed 13% to 1.06 g/t gold.
The Los Filos mine is a good example of what lower gold prices do to the economics of a deposit. Reserves at Los Filos evaporated, shrinking almost 80% because a gold price of US$1,100 per oz. renders the planned open pit laybacks uneconomic. The gold those laybacks was going to access is still there, but unless gold prices rise significantly and soon it will stay there, possibly forever, because mining it doesn’t make sense.
Goldcorp’s reserve recalculation is the most dramatic of late, but reserves have been falling for years. Every time a miner cuts the gold price used to calculate its reserve, ounces disappear. Every dollar cut from exploration and development budgets eats into reserve counts, because discoveries are needed to replace mined-out ounces.
In a recent interview Randgold CEO Mark Bristow noted that, as reserve counts fall, the average number of reserve ounces backing each share among major miners has fallen by half in the last ten years.
By half. Wow.
He went on to say that the gold industry “can’t got out of this predicament without exploring its way out” – and that is music to investors’ ears.
Most majors are still too indebted to spend much exploring. As such the task – or opportunity – falls to juniors. Those that can access cash and make a discovery will have an asset in demand on their hands in a few years, when a few years of stronger gold prices have healed majors’ balance sheets and they find themselves desperate for new ounces.

dharma

[dougie]

Ckg alive at last?

[johngeorge]

I also sold a couple positions this am, however, not buying today.  In watchful waiting.  Can't help but wonder what Canadian authority  is thinking with the sale of all their gold. 

[dharma]

its staring to look to me that we finished a 5 wave up move in gold! it could extend, but not a good bet.of course my view my differ from the markets view, which is the ultimate say

of course we could have a blowoff in gold , which today was set up for, only to have the market ending near flat. this will keep the bulls on edge and the shorts sitting in the pot of boiling water not feeling the heat........ yet.   caution is the word

we are in the time band for a top, we shall see it still has more time.  as i said i sold some this morning and bought 1 issue in a small starter way

i will be back w/the cots.  which i think will show an expansion in commercial shorts

mid april is my time frame for a bottom

dharma

Edited by dharma, 04 March 2016 - 03:26 PM.

[dharma]

cots http://news.goldseek.../1457123713.php

the commercials took on a few shorts which the large specs are on the other side

but not much in this report

dharma

[dharma]

commercial short positions are worrisome,  no doubt.  i do think during this bull  we see the commercials go 300k net short @ some point

what i liked about fridays action is we corrected intra day. bringing the short term oscillators down. keep in mind that since january we have 1 day corrections, nothing longer. this tells me there is good buying pressure as exemplified by the steady build in gld inventories. alot of the high 5ing cheer leading gold gurus have missed the move.  i am thinking that they will chase, which is what i think is coming. i am looking for a move over 1309

we will correct @ some point and it will be  a solid retracement but it seems the market is well bid.  

as for oscillators , the parameters change in a bull market, they can remain over bought for long stretches of  time. 

dharma

negative rates are not only an invitation to governments to expand and get deeper in debt, but its 

also an invitation to investors to carry gold . as 08 proved banks are not all that safe.  and bail in laws have been passed

these next years are going to be very interesting.

[dharma]

indian jewelers are on strike. which takes a big buyer out of the market.  

gernerally speaking the last move is a big move. the miners are still under value

relative to the gold price.  when gold topped in january 80 the miners topped in sept/oct 

of that year tacking on another 30-40%  so i am in wait and see mode. as i do think alot of gold gurus 

like marty missed this entire move.  the one more down crowd and then the rise also missed the move. 

and are eager to buy.  gold is yet to convince them to jump in , and that may be what is coming

gold is the ultimate asset .  silver not so much , it will have its day when all the investors jump on board, and then

in the greater fool theory they will sell to someone else @a higher price. i have seen this in action 2x now 80 and 11

in 80due to exchange manipulations and the fleecing of the big boyz the hunts. they changed the rules. 

i know i beat this horse to death, but alot of folks werent around in 80 and the silver gurus sprott etc come out w/magical ratios that 

silver should be trading @ and they may very well trade @ those ratios, but like gold/oil in depressions that gets blown out of whack

miners so far are stellar today. 

dharma

jg any ideas why pglc , cant get any traction.  i may take a stab there

Edited by dharma, 07 March 2016 - 10:54 AM.

[johngeorge]

"jg any ideas why pglc , cant get any traction.  i may take a stab there"

 

dharma

 

I have been wondering the same thing.  Perhaps because it is a relatively newer issue and folks are disappointed in its latest price action...that's just a guess.  I bought it @ $3.70 and will hang on for awhile to see if it can shake out of its slump.  The very positive insider trading and CEO still has me intrigued with the stock as well as management claiming to have a good chance of entering production by the end of this year..  My position is not large so I can go either way with it.  In watchful waiting.

 

My best to you.

[johngeorge]

I did sell a couple positions this am, but, at some time will probably buy them back.  I still have plenty of skin in the game and am practicing  patience.    Gold 1300 - 1320 still looks to me like it is possible this rally.