134 replies to this topic

[cafeflorida]

Hey dharma -

 

 

[dharma]

we are in strong support here, if the market is unable to hold this support it will seek lower levels.   there are no daily divergences in gdx/gld/gdxj they do have hourly divergences.  and are oversold on a daily. as if the cbs have not screwed things up enough  if they raise interest rates , i think the fragile broad market/bond market will take it on the chin, and be in crash mode. if so, gold/miners will be in trouble.  how much trouble remains to be seen , but new lows will not be off the table

i still see the sept/oct period as a time for this to occur i am waiting to see if a rally develops  if so i will be raising cash into it.  

dharma

[dharma]

it is possible we get to the 1277 support , but lower than that and the market is in big trouble.  monday kuroda talks and that could be a tipping point. then there is the jobs report w/a rate hike if it is strong.  so, the games continue.  but the fact is we are oversold and from here at least a bounce or an impulse  up will occur.  stay tuned. friday morning will be wild . 

dharma

[dharma]

hgnsi =6.5 % if we can hold these levels , then i think we get another run to the upside. from here.   august jobs reports are not seasonally adjusted and are usually weak #s 

dharma

[dougie]

that B wave was supposed to materialize in here wasnt it? 

Wasnt it?

[dougie]

Check out weekly miners charts; even in the BULL markets weekly RSI almost always pushes below the 50 line. and that assumes we are in a bull.

so bottom line we have further work to do on the weekly.

[dougie]

another observation: only 4 times have we been this overbought on weeklies RSI.

In those 4 instances the corrections ranged from 24% to 38% 

 

We are now at 22% meaning we have a ways to go based on history only

[stubaby]

Check out weekly miners charts; even in the BULL markets weekly RSI almost always pushes below the 50 line. and that assumes we are in a bull.

so bottom line we have further work to do on the weekly.

Dougie:

 

The B Wave up will "set" the overall downside objective of the ensuing C Wave (basic assumption of A=C).  Looks like we are bottoming now in A - B Wave could be a dud (23.6% retrace) or a blowout (new highs). We shall see over the next several weeks.

Edited by stubaby, 31 August 2016 - 03:19 PM.

[dougie]

thanks Stu; in none of the prior 4 instances did B wave exceed highs but at least 50% retrace looks about right 

[dougie]

http://www.traders-t...by-avi-gilburt/

well here we are at his 25.50 area