97 replies to this topic

[Russ]

Also Commercials are heavily short the US dollar which argues the gold bull case... http://cotbase.com/

Edited by Russ, 26 December 2016 - 07:07 PM.

[SemiBizz]

Well Folks, you just have to watch the US$, it tells the tale.  It's not going up for fundamentally good reasons concerning the US economy, regardless of the fact the overall equity market continues to rally in anticipation of "something" good happening - the truth there is that it is highly probable that we will have a recession (100% of all Republican Presidents have had one since WW2)... so, it's not about that at all... it's all about Europe, DB, Germany and the mountain of derivatives that are in the process of melting down... it's not about accounting entries, most of the underlying contracts in these "derivatives" are written in which currency?  US$$ - that's why dollars are in big demand and why all assets will melt down as the demand skyrockets over the next few years it will take to unwind this malinvestment....

 

For gold .the technical setup is this: 

 

A - 1920

****************** 875

B - 1045

 

C - 1380

****************** 875

D - Target  ~  $500   ($505)

[SemiBizz]

Listen Carefully, the conductor has stepped in front of the orchestra and the musicians are in the process of warming up....

 

http://www.forbes.co...mentally-sound/

 

Jens Weidmann, at the Bundesbank and thus the European Central Bank, has pointed out that Italy’s state aid to the failing Monte dei Paschi bank is only allowable if the bank itself is fundamentally sound. It’s also not possible for state aid to be given if such is to cover already extant losses–essentially he’s repeating the standard eurozone authorities line about failing banks. And in doing so he’s showing the weakness of that standard eurozone line. For banks are different than other economic organisations. Whether a bank is a viable operation or not depends too much on the vagaries of the fractional reserve system to be able to make these sorts of claims.

 

 

Our problem is a systemic one. Fractional reserve banking simply always means that if everyone turns up for their money at the same time then they cannot have it. Because those deposits are out there as loans to other people. This is the great weakness of the system, the liability to bank runs. And if a run on one bank just caused that bank to fail then that wouldn’t be all that much of a problem. So, a company goes bust, so what? But because of this inherent fragility even a sound bank can be crippled by a run on it. So, if one bank going over means that depositors start to demand their money bank from others then we find that we’ve contagion. And such financial contagion is associated with very deep recessions, almost depressions. As 2008, 2009, showed us and as various 19th century episodes did as well. Even the Great Depression was more caused by banking system collapses than anything else.

 

 

Those who fail to remember the past are doomed to repeat it...

Edited by SemiBizz, 26 December 2016 - 09:44 PM.

[senorBS]

Listen Carefully, the conductor has stepped in front of the orchestra and the musicians are in the process of warming up....

 

http://www.forbes.co...mentally-sound/

 

Jens Weidmann, at the Bundesbank and thus the European Central Bank, has pointed out that Italy’s state aid to the failing Monte dei Paschi bank is only allowable if the bank itself is fundamentally sound. It’s also not possible for state aid to be given if such is to cover already extant losses–essentially he’s repeating the standard eurozone authorities line about failing banks. And in doing so he’s showing the weakness of that standard eurozone line. For banks are different than other economic organisations. Whether a bank is a viable operation or not depends too much on the vagaries of the fractional reserve system to be able to make these sorts of claims.

 

 

Our problem is a systemic one. Fractional reserve banking simply always means that if everyone turns up for their money at the same time then they cannot have it. Because those deposits are out there as loans to other people. This is the great weakness of the system, the liability to bank runs. And if a run on one bank just caused that bank to fail then that wouldn’t be all that much of a problem. So, a company goes bust, so what? But because of this inherent fragility even a sound bank can be crippled by a run on it. So, if one bank going over means that depositors start to demand their money bank from others then we find that we’ve contagion. And such financial contagion is associated with very deep recessions, almost depressions. As 2008, 2009, showed us and as various 19th century episodes did as well. Even the Great Depression was more caused by banking system collapses than anything else.

 

 

Those who fail to remember the past are doomed to repeat it...

we'll see what "past" is "remembered", I know which way I am looking but as always am married to know possible outcome as we only deal in probabilities. At this time I like the upside risk/reward as I can place fairly reasonable stops. My best guess is we see a larger rally in 2017 then we saw in 2016, we will see

[dharma]

the astro is interesting and significant and it just so happens that jupiter opposes uranus tody it has a 12 day orb and according
to merriman it has the highest accuracy rating of all the powerful astro combinations. merriman wrote a report on this . i will
share it here http://files.constan...dd02f8210dc.pdf
essentially what is going up into this reverses we shall see.
500 gold is a good one semi. since you have been coming aroound you have been a bear. good luck w/that
dharma

[Russ]

What is needed for a great depression is a sovereign debt default which is what happened in the 1930's when Europe (except Britain which had a six month stop on bond payments), South America and Asia all defaulted on their government debts (bond markets where most of societies money resides)  Just a private bank default is not enough for a great depression.

 

European Central Bank (ECB) is insolvent based on their own rules they apply to private banks...

https://www.armstron...b-is-insolvent/

 

So we are on the edge of a full blown government debt default in Europe which will eventually spread to many other parts of the world and also finally the USA.  It will be the loss of confidence in government that finally drives Gold through the roof.

Edited by Russ, 27 December 2016 - 12:30 AM.

[senorBS]

What is needed for a great depression is a sovereign debt default which is what happened in the 1930's when Europe (except Britain which had a six month stop on bond payments), South America and Asia all defaulted on their government debts (bond markets where most of societies money resides)  Just a private bank default is not enough for a great depression.

 

European Central Bank (ECB) is insolvent based on their own rules they apply to private banks...

https://www.armstron...b-is-insolvent/

 

So we are on the edge of a full blown government debt default in Europe which will eventually spread to many other parts of the world and also finally the USA.  It will be the loss of confidence in government that finally drives Gold through the roof.

you are giving your view which is fundamental analysis to a chart/technical/Ewave based trader investor, that's sorta like oil and water and they don't mix well. I really don't care about all that stuff and you likely don't care about mine, so lets just agree to disagree and move on.

 

Senor

[senorBS]

Gold above 1140 this morning, good start to the week. Note that GLD has now been down 7 weeks in a row and I think it has only done that one other time in the past several years and it rallied. Technicals and Ewave patterns and sentiment very supportive IMO for a bueno bottom here, lets see if we can sustain and extend this move toward 1150.

 

Senor

[Russ]

 

What is needed for a great depression is a sovereign debt default which is what happened in the 1930's when Europe (except Britain which had a six month stop on bond payments), South America and Asia all defaulted on their government debts (bond markets where most of societies money resides)  Just a private bank default is not enough for a great depression.

 

European Central Bank (ECB) is insolvent based on their own rules they apply to private banks...

https://www.armstron...b-is-insolvent/

 

So we are on the edge of a full blown government debt default in Europe which will eventually spread to many other parts of the world and also finally the USA.  It will be the loss of confidence in government that finally drives Gold through the roof.

you are giving your view which is fundamental analysis to a chart/technical/Ewave based trader investor, that's sorta like oil and water and they don't mix well. I really don't care about all that stuff and you likely don't care about mine, so lets just agree to disagree and move on.

 

Senor

 

Sorry Senor, it was more of a response to Semibizz's post. I know you are a technical trader and so am I, but I like to understand the why of the market place too. I have posted many technical posts and predicted last summer gold would go down into this time area (went down a little longer than I thought - oscillator can be off by a few weeks sometimes, but my direction was totally correct) based on using charts. The GLD chart has a good trend on it now for a high into late January now if you didn't see my earlier post about it but your own work is the most important because you understand it better than anyone else will.

[senorBS]

 

 

What is needed for a great depression is a sovereign debt default which is what happened in the 1930's when Europe (except Britain which had a six month stop on bond payments), South America and Asia all defaulted on their government debts (bond markets where most of societies money resides)  Just a private bank default is not enough for a great depression.

 

European Central Bank (ECB) is insolvent based on their own rules they apply to private banks...

https://www.armstron...b-is-insolvent/

 

So we are on the edge of a full blown government debt default in Europe which will eventually spread to many other parts of the world and also finally the USA.  It will be the loss of confidence in government that finally drives Gold through the roof.

you are giving your view which is fundamental analysis to a chart/technical/Ewave based trader investor, that's sorta like oil and water and they don't mix well. I really don't care about all that stuff and you likely don't care about mine, so lets just agree to disagree and move on.

 

Senor

 

Sorry Senor, it was more of a response to Semibizz's post. I know you are a technical trader and so am I, but I like to understand the why of the market place too. I have posted many technical posts and predicted last summer gold would go down into this time area (went down a little longer than I thought - oscillator can be off by a few weeks sometimes, but my direction was totally correct) based on using charts. The GLD chart has a good trend on it now for a high into late January now if you didn't see my earlier post about it but your own work is the most important because you understand it better than anyone else will.

 

sorry Russ that was actually my bad, that post should have responded to Semi

 

Senor