for six weeks there has been no money to make on trending moves because there has been no trend, at least speaking of spx. i still hold a 50% long position, was lucky enough to not get spooked on thursday's plunge, actually picked up a few dollars from it, but cut back from 80% long to 50% long on Friday's strength. but that was more luck and nerve than skill.
I still think we have a shot at spx 2300, but to get there, we need to get momentum started from a 1%-1.5% decline which holds to the end of the day and then has follow-thru the next morning. that will give traders confidence they aren't buying at the very top, and that will allow for the momentum to reach spx 2300, sucking in more late money that is afraid of missing the advance to spx 2500.
if we get that 1% downward day, i will try to reduce my long position to 20% during the drop, then get back in, in part at the close and then the rest on the day after the 1% declining day that has held the decline, picking up some profits by selling low and buying lower. if i do this, i will risk the market getting away from me, but a cleansing drop that holds to the close and has a little follow-thru is needed.
highly unlikely for me to get beyond 80% long here (180% w/leverage). the market needs a more thorough cleansing for me to believe it can sustain a trend for more than a few weeks. but a 3-5% decline somewhere might be all it needs.
if i don't get that decline, then i will likely stay content with my 50% long until a short opportunity shows up. but after the advance to 2300, whether from here at 2270 or from 2245, i don't see much chance of getting beyond spx 2300 without at least a 3% correction to set up another trending upward move. but that is way too far ahead to matter much for now.
if we happen to gap higher on tuesday, however, i will probably reduce my position even more and may even look for a small short position.
going long vix is probably too easy here, other than a quick one from a quick drop in the market.