711 replies to this topic

[lawdog]

I am pretty well determined to cut my overnite short position in half from here. I don't trust this decline to hold. Having second thoughts about adding back the part of the position I sold a few minutes ago.

[lawdog]

Looking at the minute by minute chart of the spx, it is showing a continuous trend down; it may not go down a lot more, but there is a good chance that trend down continues into the close, so I likely will hold my remaining shorts to the close unless that clean downtrend gets broken.

[lawdog]

bounce is faltering at spx 2263; be patient, it could bounce more. If it fails here, I think I will buy back that 30% of my position. I did; looks like it doesn't have the legs to regain the lost ground. Back to 43% short, but I still have 20% long, so net 23% short.

[lawdog]

Going to sell 1/2 of my short position by the close; market is firming here with 20 minutes to go; do I sell now or see if it can drop a little more? Holding for now. Dropped below 2263. Keep going down. Sold 1/2 on spx under 2263. So now I have a short position equal to my long. It's been a decent day's work, so I can't complain, but don't know what to do for tomorrow, with the inauguration and OPEX.

[lawdog]

I don't think we have seen the end of the selling. I am looking for a little bit of stability tomorrow morning, perhaps some positive vibes for the inauguration, but then reality sets it and we have a market that needs to correct a bit more. I still don't think that this will yet be the start of a 3-5% type of decline, and that a modest retreat of 1-2% might be enough to bring the buyers back in to push us to 2300 on the spx and possibly 20k DJIA. But in the meantime, I will be trying to manage the decline and make some money and more important, avoid losing money. My next post should be in the morning before trading begins, following tonight's review and analysis and a view of the likely opening. If it opens more than 5 pts up, I will expect a market moving higher from there, at least for an hour or so. If the market opens down more than 5 points, it could turn into a rout.

[lawdog]

opinion has not changed since prior post. decent bounce in spx futures overnite. as i wrote, an opening upward gap of more than 5 points suggests more strength in the day. but once the market turns down i see at least one really hard decline, starting either Friday afternoon or Monday morning, but that one hard down day should be the end of the selling for at least 2-4 days of recovery. don't wait for adv/decline to go negative; breadth will likely follow price. i am 20% long and 20% short, planning on getting 40% short by Friday's close and 60% short (net 40%) by sometime early on Monday. I expect friday's highest point to be reached by noon es time. my guess is we get close to 2275 on spx, have some weakness after the first two hours, then recover to close up but off the highs. so i hope to increase my short position around 2275, then see a drop that gives most of it back, then further afternoon strength, with an underwhelming close. then see a 20-point spx "plunge" most likely from there to the close on Monday. expect to close out 2/3 of short by monday's close look for an opening bounce tuesday am, short again on the opening bounce, then see another drop into negative territory, at which point i should be looking for signals to get long, perhaps even a reversal to the upside by tuesday's close. will keep posting here further thoughts and changes in my positions. if the plunge i am looking for goes much more than 20 spx points, i.e. below 2245, then i think spx 2300 and DJIA 20,000 will be unreachable for months.

 

my greatest fear is that we open down and then i need to pay up to add shorts, which at this point i am not inclined to do. it would be very easy to miss this market on opening weakness. as of now, 2 am est, the futures suggest +5 spx opening. hope it holds and adds to opening gap.

[lawdog]

I will start nibbling at adding shorts from the open. the opening five minutes could have the high of the day , but I doubt it. I will buy some sds, 2x short the spx, in a small amount, just to take advantage of the gap, then watch for a while.

[lawdog]

bot sds at 14.68; gives me 33% short, 20% long.

[lawdog]

added 10% more at 14.67

[lawdog]

if spx is still at or near 2275 at 10:30 est, I may sell all that I bot of sds on the gap opening. so far the market is not doing anything wrong for the bulls.