195 replies to this topic

[dharma]

I'm in the "Intermediate Peak" camp at 1245. BUT, if gold can get above that by Monday or no later than Tuesday morning I would expect a raging 3rd wave run. The conservative path is shown by dharma, to lighten longs. Comments?

prudent, i peeled away margin, now no matter what happens there is no pressure.
dharma

[senorBS]

 

many looking for a top soon and then the biggest correction so far, maybe me too. However, there is a valid count that if gold goes to a new rally high wave iii of 3 or C could be underway, interesting juncture
 
Senor

Biggest correction since?

 

since the Dec. low, meaning we could correct the entire rally with a 38% or 50% retracement, that's a fairly decent possibility IMO

 

Senor

[senorBS]

so senor , you are looking at this as a C. it is a real possibility. not sure . for now i am working off margin, which i am now
off margin.
if anyone is interested here is the gann guy from yesterday http://www.ganngloba...1c2338bedf7c1a2
deliberating what to do from here
dharma

keep in mind if its "C" IMO it has to go above last years high - that is the "Ewave degree" I am talking about. So a large correction here IMO is either wave ii of a larger 3 or C that goes above last years high and probably at least gest gold up to 1400-1500.

 

Senor

[senorBS]

I'm in the "Intermediate Peak" camp at 1245. BUT, if gold can get above that by Monday or no later than Tuesday morning I would expect a raging 3rd wave run. The conservative path is shown by dharma, to lighten longs. Comments?

would agree, but is has to get "decisively" above 1245-1250 and really be motoring and close well. That option remains viable but I think its odds are fading

 

Senor

[dougie]

Thanks

many looking for a top soon and then the biggest correction so far, maybe me too. However, there is a valid count that if gold goes to a new rally high wave iii of 3 or C could be underway, interesting juncture
 
Senor

Biggest correction since?

since the Dec. low, meaning we could correct the entire rally with a 38% or 50% retracement, that's a fairly decent possibility IMO
 
Senor

[dharma]

cots http://news.goldseek.../1487363564.php
i know folks are out there touting silver, silver will run no doubt. but it seems to me money velocity has to reverse from down to
up before that happens. ie we need to be in a different environment. notice the commercials increased their silver shorts by almost
the identical amount the large specs increased their longs. the commercials are still very short the dollar . and the cot for gold
looks constructive.
there are alot of possibilities here. i am comfortable where i am. if we continue to correct , i will bring my account down to a
position where if we do correct the move from the december lows. i can take advantage of that. i think the 2nd 1/2 of 17 will be
strong for the sector.
what do i know.
seasonal chart
http://seasonalchart...ssics_gold.htmlmarch is not kind to old yeller
dharma

Edited by dharma, 18 February 2017 - 11:29 AM.

[johngeorge]

dharma

 

Money velocity is all important, as I see it, for gold to really move up.  This chart dated Jan 27, 2017 still shows money velocity moving lower, but, the cost for the things and services we purchase continues to rise.  March has been indicated as a time to look for a low in the XAU by some folks on the board.  For me I am respecting that outlook and have stopped buying.  In watchful waiting mode to sell into strength and wait for a pullback to buy.  Buy low and sell high.  Easy to say, but, not easy to do. 

 

I do think, as you,  2017 could be a banner year for gold, silver, and the mining shares.  Good luck to all in their trading. 

[dougie]

 

I'm in the "Intermediate Peak" camp at 1245. BUT, if gold can get above that by Monday or no later than Tuesday morning I would expect a raging 3rd wave run. The conservative path is shown by dharma, to lighten longs. Comments?

would agree, but is has to get "decisively" above 1245-1250 and really be motoring and close well. That option remains viable but I think its odds are fading

 

Senor

 

 

 

 

many looking for a top soon and then the biggest correction so far, maybe me too. However, there is a valid count that if gold goes to a new rally high wave iii of 3 or C could be underway, interesting juncture
 
Senor

Biggest correction since?

 

since the Dec. low, meaning we could correct the entire rally with a 38% or 50% retracement, that's a fairly decent possibility IMO

 

Senor

 

Like this?

[senorBS]

 

 

I'm in the "Intermediate Peak" camp at 1245. BUT, if gold can get above that by Monday or no later than Tuesday morning I would expect a raging 3rd wave run. The conservative path is shown by dharma, to lighten longs. Comments?

would agree, but is has to get "decisively" above 1245-1250 and really be motoring and close well. That option remains viable but I think its odds are fading

 

Senor

 

 

 

 

many looking for a top soon and then the biggest correction so far, maybe me too. However, there is a valid count that if gold goes to a new rally high wave iii of 3 or C could be underway, interesting juncture
 
Senor

Biggest correction since?

 

since the Dec. low, meaning we could correct the entire rally with a 38% or 50% retracement, that's a fairly decent possibility IMO

 

Senor

 

Like this?

 

si amigo

[dharma]

comfortable where i am position wise right now. i will peel away more as march approaches. off margin. about 10% in cash
i do think march will be interesting , debt ceiling up march 15 , same day as fed meets. could produce alot of volatility. i look
for march to be down. alan greenspan was interviewed by the world gold council. now , he remembers his ayn rand roots
http://www.usagold.c...dvocacy-part-1/
http://www.24hgold.c...hael J. Kosares
these charts are something i watch http://www.graceland...21negrates1.png
my thinking since sometime early in this bull was welcome back to the 70s stagflation. and i still watch the fractal of the 70s as
it is providing the road map. later this year and next year the bull will assert itself in a much more sustained way. traders will
be left behind or be forced to pay more for things they sold
if you look at the abx chart you can see the evolution of abx, but of the entire mining sector. by that i mean early in the bull
companies were fat and wasting resources. now they are lean and looking to take advantage of any price gains in the metal. abx is
becoming a poster child.
dharma