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Precious Metals Update - 2/24/17

xau/yahoo advance/decline line precious metals a/d line

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#1 fib_1618

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Posted 26 February 2017 - 12:10 PM

Well, as many of you have probably guessed by now, this month's update of the XAU/Yahoo advance/decline line shows that a solid sell signal was generated on February 15th and its been downhill ever since. Meanwhile, the price of gold has continued to break above its "3 layers of resistance" as reviewed in the thread of February 4th ( http://tinyurl.com/jlpnn62 ) with the 200 day EMA containing the price structure since that time until this past Thursday's break to the upside. Unfortunately for the bulls, when taken together, gold and silver's recent run up is that of an exhaustion move, and a sharp decline (reset) to or towards the $1190 level in gold is likely to start as soon as next week.

 

For investors, the current Precious Metals McClellan Summation Index is at a +543, so a "last ditch effort" rally by the PM stocks is likely to be seen (though from lower levels) before we see the actual counter trend top. This will probably coordinate with the mid month FED statement where the debt market is suggesting that no change in rates will be the outcome from the 2 day meeting. This will likely provide the underlying excitement that the FED will remain accomodative for a while longer, and by extension, this would be good news for the metals as additional liquidity would be added to the system.

 

So the bottom line for the metals this month remains basically the same as it was on January 29th: "the road traveled for the bulls should continue to be a bumpy one short term, but the path of least resistance, on an intermediate term basis, should continue to be a friendly one going into the second quarter of 2017". After that, well, the second quarter is likely to have a bearish slant to it as we go into our next likely buying opportunity around August.

 

The next review will be the weekend of March 31st.

 

Good trading.

 

Fib

 

xauyahoo022417.png


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#2 fib_1618

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Posted 26 February 2017 - 12:32 PM

Oh, by the way, there's a new precious metals related ETF, GDLW, that measures the price of gold, in U.S Dollars, against a basket of six currencies..."If the dollar rises, the ETF's currency position helps offset any potential losses in gold that may result".

 

Fib

 

http://tinyurl.com/z3o32hk


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#3 senorBS

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Posted 26 February 2017 - 03:03 PM

Gracias Fib another bueno chart, looks like somethings gotta give soon (I feel the tension here!) with the miner A/D line falling fairly hard and gold and silver going to new highs into Friday's close. I can see it resolving either way which is why I am 95% cash as I think this is a high risk area, I'd rather wait for more info from eolving trading. I think Mon/Tues could be muy importante, we see

 

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#4 SemiBizz

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Posted 26 February 2017 - 03:51 PM

Oh, by the way, there's a new precious metals related ETF, GDLW, that measures the price of gold, in U.S Dollars, against a basket of six currencies..."If the dollar rises, the ETF's currency position helps offset any potential losses in gold that may result".

 

Fib

 

http://tinyurl.com/z3o32hk

So it is GLDW - not GDLW... and the problem is LIQUIDITY.... there is no volume in it.  Beware...

 


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#5 fib_1618

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Posted 26 February 2017 - 03:59 PM

 

Oh, by the way, there's a new precious metals related ETF, GDLW, that measures the price of gold, in U.S Dollars, against a basket of six currencies..."If the dollar rises, the ETF's currency position helps offset any potential losses in gold that may result".

 

Fib

 

http://tinyurl.com/z3o32hk

So it is GLDW - not GDLW... and the problem is LIQUIDITY.... there is no volume in it.  Beware...

 

Thanks for the correction Tom...and I have a personal rule to never trade anything that is less than a year old anyway, but thought the reader may find the product worth keeping an eye on.

 

Fib


Better to ignore me than abhor me.

“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin

 

"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw

 

Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.

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