I thought you might find the link below to Tomes article of interest, if you were not already aware of this work. Here's how I came across it.
I have recently been inspired by recent Sentient Trader webinars on You Tube to practice, perform, and refine a manual phasing Hurst analysis on all of the items I trade. Oil was the first given I was then short (I went short at the 9:00 am high bar of @ CL on 3/7 and closed the position with a TDSEQh13 sell signal in the inverse ETF SCO this PM) (closed just for a short bounce before heading lower IMHO) Sugar was next (it has kept me neutral until a wave v completes and it's due a long term 19 month low soon per my phasing analysis and Eric Haydik"s work-he also is calling for a 19 month low about now)
My Phasing analysis on a limited data set on crude oil strongly suggests that all other items I trade need their own custom workups.
My limited peak to peak (I chose peaks given that commodity peaks are pronounced) review of data back to just 2003 found a 34 month Peak to Peak cycle which just recently completed 12/16/16. 2x of that would be 68 months, which is close to Tomes average 5.54 year finding. (I couldn't pick that longer cycle up with data going back to just 2003). Adding a 34 month peak to Tomes projected 2008 peak hits the 2011 high and subsequent highs. That 34 month cycle ( and Tomes 5.54 year cycle?) peaked again recently ( 12/12/16).
Here is Ray Tomes 2005 article on review of 60 years of Oil cycles data. (starting at pg 6). Ray notes that
"Data used in this analysis obtained from the St.
Louis Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED),
which is located at http://research.stlouisfed.org/
fred2/, and referred to as OILPRICE.txt, “Spot
Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate”.
FRED may be a good source for long term data on other items when one wants to do a phasing analysis on other items too as well as the prior work of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles. (I'm going to study that site more in order to see what other commodities it has price histories for).
Just as Gold phasing may work better with a custom cycle model a la "the Silent One's" excellent work, oil and various other items may too. As far as I'm aware, Hurst only published a nominal model on stock prices, not other items, so it may be good practice to check whether to use Hurst's nominal model on other items by first doing their own phasing analysis. Indeed, it might be helpful to share these kind of work ups on this board.
ATB
Geomean
Here's the link.
http://foundationmem...8/cm_2008_1.pdf
Edited by Geomean, 17 March 2017 - 04:29 PM.
