475 replies to this topic

[dharma]

"Our long-term plan is to build Hong Kong into a commodities, currencies and risk management centre, and gold ticks all three of those boxes." -Chuck Li, Hong Kong Stock Exchange Chairman, July 10, 2017.

sentiment readings are at levels seen at bottoms . w/the dsi down to 10. the commercials have more longs now then they did at the bottom of dec 15. for the bottoming process to be complete in my opinion we need to create momentum divergences.  the market has shown that the miners lead, up and down. well as of now gold has made new lows. and the miners have yet to take out their last lows. this is a divergence.  however at big bottoms most of the time there are momentum divergences. and that is what i am waiting for. 

 

when we hit near 1300 the last time. india import banks left the market, and have been out for this 100dollar decline. this is significant one of the worlds significant players in the physical market is out of the market.  the banks are scheduled to reenter the fray this week.  diwali buying begins in august. thus the seasonal lows for gold .  the commercials as of last tuesday have significantly cut their short exposure. and by the way the commercial positions on platinum look very bullish. 

i am waiting on momentum divergences to occur. w/sentiment and commercials shifting their positions. as of last tuesday, we are getting good bottoming action, not indicative of further price erosion, however, a blast below 1200 would not surprise me. and serve to get the large specs short. 

dharma

[dougie]

Friday did not feel like the bottom though apparently it was a bottom

[Russ]

Friday did not feel like the bottom though apparently it was a bottom

NEM was one of the tells.

[dharma]

i dont see that for nem , it was a doji

today is a higher high and lower low than friday

outside day

so the theory goes whichever way it breaks above or below todays range sets the trend

that happens a rare %of the time. somewhere around 7%  

i am going to continue to give it some space and wait for more momentum divergences to take shape. that is my stance right now

V bottoms are also rare 

dharma

[Russ]

the proof is in the pudding dharma..... gdx, xau etc. made new lows while Nem the 800 pound gorilla did not, classic divergence of a blue chip gold stock, the doji is often seen on bottoms.

 

 

 

 

also note the divergence of cmf and the higher force index on each pullback over the past months...

 

Edited by Russ, 10 July 2017 - 03:11 PM.

[johngeorge]

I think that today could well have been a dead cat bounce.  Will see.

[fib_1618]

I think that today could well have been a dead cat bounce.  Will see.

 

Yes...more than likely a technical obligation to snapback to or toward the trigger line at $1216 before testing $1201.

 

Fib

[dharma]

still not convinced of anything. 14,7,7 stochs for gold scapping the bottom.   on hourly charts gld w/a new low will have hourly divergences. if that occurs and gdx/gdxj do not make new lows then we have something.  until then its just the commercials trying to position the large specs short. in the last cot the commercials went long 16k and closed 30k shorts.  

i believe this is in anticipation of india coming back to the market . so far this year,  india has officially imported 500tons and 200tons of black market (as an estimate) at the top near 1300gold india stopped importing waiting for gst.tax. now the indian import banks are getting ready to step back into the market. its not usa coin sales that move the market, the #s are too low to significantly influence the market.  its gold sales in india.  

i still think a blast below 1200 will be seen, it will demoralize the bulls.  get the hedgies short.   this is a bottoming process.  all the little pea shooters put together make an elephant gun.  

w/usa at full employment when will wage pressures come to the fore????   

the market is not yet running away. so patience is needed.  unless of course one is way underweight.  but leverage in here kills

dharma

[dharma]

i have been pointing out that this gold move is a fractal of the 70s gold move.  in sept 78 gold made a low , the bulls bet that was the low , then in november 78  gold made a lower low, much like the situation we have now , w/this last low in gold being lower than the previous low.  well that nov low in 78 was a bear trap, because that november low kicked off a giant leg up.  which is a possibility here., among other possibilities.   

sticking w/the 70s alan greenspan just came out saying this:   http://www.foxbusine...tagflation.html

he equates the world today as being similar to the 70s  which has been my contention all along. only this time pushing rates up to the sky will only bring down the house of cards.    

nibbling 

dharma

1229 breaks into the next higher price cycle . above 1245  places us on more firm footing. this is larger picture prices

[dougie]

 

Bullish look?