475 replies to this topic

[gismeu]

fwiw, my weekly cycle bottomed this week. However, the daily topped today, so I expect a few days of sideways to down,

before the weekly uptrend exerts itself again. As long as we stay above 1206 to 1208 on a daily closing basis, I am bullish.

 

not trading advice, gis

[Smithy]

Thanks; g'luck...

[jabat]

 

Armstrong says that the week of July 24th is the next turning point for Gold.

_____________________

We have not yet broken gold for all the people writing in. So far we have elected three Weekly Bearish Reversals from the July 2016 high in gold and three Monthly Bearish Reversals. We have elected two Weekly Bearish Reversals from the high in June and fallen into the target week of July 10th and last week was the Panic Cycle. We now look to the week of July 24th for the next turning point.

 

https://www.armstron...ls/gold/gold-7/

[gannman]

i am watching the dollar here with fascination. if it cannot stage some kind of a rally here 

 

we are going to see some kind of a large decline in it.  i dont know if we are going to rally 

 

here or not. what i do know is the good jobs report did not trigger a rally . interesting

[gismeu]

i am watching the dollar here with fascination. if it cannot stage some kind of a rally here 

 

we are going to see some kind of a large decline in it.  i dont know if we are going to rally 

 

here or not. what i do know is the good jobs report did not trigger a rally . interesting

I think it is to do with Inflation not getting going. Look at today's CPI numbers. Instead of +0.1 it was -0.1. Not looking like Inflation is going to come anytime soon.

 

fwiw, gis

[gannman]

makes sense i would not be surprised to see some kind of waterfall drop

[dharma]

hey stubaby good to see you, maybe now we will hear from you more often. must be hot in your neck of the woods. hopefully the monsoon has started here. got 3 hours of rain yesterday, cooled it down

the thing is

for one its inflation, and the metrics there are always changing to suit the views of the present administration. you have to love figures that take food and energy out of the #s  . give me a break . food and energy are essential

then for me its money velocity  now alot of folks are talking about that. and that in essence is when the money velocity topped in 96 it was a 20year bear market vs gold for miners. when that # turns its game on for the sector

i firmly believe that we are rapidly approaching the gold bull era w/price appreciation. the infrastructure world wide has been put in place the center of gold trading will shift from lbma and comex to shanghai, dubai, and of course india.  as will the economic power.  i dont know how this end bit plays out here. but i think this chop will end w/in the next 6 months.   i dont want to speculate how it ends, i want to prepared to act when i think it does.  

my contention is the 70s bull is the model for this bulls fractal. we are in stagflation. i dont need stats to tell me that , every thing is more expensive today.  in 78 the low was made in sept  the bulls loaded up , then in november there was a lower low  causing the bulls to stop out  and trapping the bears. then the big rally got underway leading eventually to the parabolic.   well here  we had the may lows,  which the bulls bought and were now stopped out and terrified by the lower lows in july. also the gdx gdxj  did not confirm the lower lows here in july.  i want to see evidence of a good bottom.   1229 breaks into the next higher price cycle. i want to see a couple of closes over that # to give me confidence. today being friday , would be strong to see a close above 1229. 

every one has theories how this will end.   what i do know is the bull will take as few riders as possible and that 10dsi on monday is an indication of that  hulbert wants negative #s on his hgnsi # . we all have different ideas of what is needed.   i believe the market could be saying something here. gotta get quiet to hear it cut out all the chatter

dharma

[jabat]

Gold and silver 16 years support in play

 

[dharma]

 this is another very encouraging cot report for the bulls . the bait, large specs, continue to reduce longs and add hefty short positions. the commercials have accommodated them by increasing longs and reducing shorts. the commercials also reduced silver shorts by 10k. the commercials are now more balanced on the dollar http://news.goldseek.../1500060658.php overall this lends support to a bottoming process theory the last 3 weeks have seen a significant reduction in commercial shorts in the gold market

 

dharma. 

[dharma]

the cots are back at levels seen in dec 16

the dollar vs rupee https://gracelandupd...17jul15usd1.png

1229 then 1245 are resistance i use these #s on a closing basis

the dollar during republican presidencies  goes to lower levels

dharma

grains looking good now we need the queen to take center stage