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#61 Rich C

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Posted 20 November 2019 - 08:22 PM

I continued to sell into strength in Nov.  I sold all my SPY.  I had some individual stocks I had sold covered calls against, they all expired on 11/15.  I've sold some of those stocks, had a few called away.  I bought TLT last week.  When the stock market corrects, it seems people buy TLT and the price of TLT goes up.  The last 2 days were good for TLT, which I only view as a swing trade, not a long term call on interest rates.  I bought some utility stocks on the recent pullback.  If we go into a recession in the next year, the Fed will drop rates and I wanted some income producers.  I sold a Put on Exxon at $64 a month ago, collected that premium.  I am not interested in selling any puts right now, with the market at an all time high and a good possibility of a correction and lower prices, you don't know how low LOW will be, so I will wait and see.  If the odds are the market will have trouble pushing on to more new highs, now seems like a good time to sell covered calls, and the odds might favor keeping the stock if that is what you want to do.  My target for puts or calls is typically 30 days out.


Blogging at http://RichInvesting.wordpress.com

 

My swing trades typically last a couple of weeks to a couple of months. 


#62 Rich C

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Posted 11 March 2020 - 07:08 PM

I continued to raise cash until mid December, cashed in gains and had a decent 2019, but I underperformed the S&P.  I went into 2020 with 10% CD's (avg. 2 year), 10% dividend paying stocks and lots of cash.  I did not like the market going up in 2019 on flat earnings, with the trailing 12 month GAAP P/E at 24 (see my posts in the long term investing section).  That has served me pretty well.  I will look for a buying opportunity, but before that, I must answer the question, have we entered a primary bear market?  They are apt to start when nobody expects it.  The Fed has snuffed out any hint of a slowdown for over a decade, and this is built on massive govt. debt, and now the Fed is buying more debt.  How does that work, can you lend yourself money (I guess it also works if you have a money printing press)?  What happens if you lend yourself too much money?  Could the dollar fall and interest rates rise?  During a recession?  I'm still cautious.  I sold a Put on JNJ and will probably buy it at 140, decent dividend and it should not be shunned by the Corona crowd.

 

I may be different from many on this board, retired and living on my chips.  I need capital preservation and income, perhaps more than most.  That keeps me conservative.


Edited by Rich C, 11 March 2020 - 07:17 PM.

Blogging at http://RichInvesting.wordpress.com

 

My swing trades typically last a couple of weeks to a couple of months. 


#63 Rich C

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Posted 14 March 2020 - 07:09 AM

I did my first little buys on Friday morning, JPM, AMGN and INTC.  Solid companies with good dividend for a retiree.  They may go lower, but I can hold thru a recession if we go there.  I have some XOM that got killed last week, but one day Saudi and Russia will stop the oil production war that is not to the advantage of either, and XOM will come back.  That is my plan.  I raised money when the market was going up on "news" instead of earnings, now I can buy while prices are low, and I expect to buy over the next month.  The duration of my swing cycle looks like it is lengthening.  A ten year treasury at .8% does not do anything for me.

 

I am not using SPY at present because some sectors are dead, like the airlines, hotels, cruise lines, and oil.  I would rather a sector fund or individual stocks at present.  I look at JPM as a new "utility" stock.


Edited by Rich C, 14 March 2020 - 07:13 AM.

Blogging at http://RichInvesting.wordpress.com

 

My swing trades typically last a couple of weeks to a couple of months. 


#64 Rich C

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Posted 24 March 2020 - 11:23 PM

I did a fair amount of buying today, not for a swing trade, but structuring portfolio for the next few years.  Wife will retire in one year, neither of us has taken SS, I'm waiting till 70.  We will need income.  Bonds or CD's don't look like an option.  I'm looking for quality large caps with good dividend yield, planning to hold a lot for the long term.  I bought a little GOOG and AMZN, probably swing trade those eventually.  Bought some DUK, C, BAC.

 

I think the market was overbought and overvalued and needed a correction.  I don't view this as a normal recession/bear market.  I don't recall one driven by a virus or health concern like this, I wasn't around for the Spanish Flu.  Seems we might bounce back quicker than 2008 if we can get it under control, and we've got some smart folks working on it.

 

Safe-ish income ideas for the next 4 years will be appreciated! 


Blogging at http://RichInvesting.wordpress.com

 

My swing trades typically last a couple of weeks to a couple of months. 


#65 Rich C

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Posted 31 March 2020 - 07:47 PM

i think we're in a bear market.  I think we put in a temporary bottom a couple of weeks ago, so I did some buying.  Some of what I bought I plan to hold longer term.  I have done a little selling off the bottom, like KO, I thought it would bounce up, but with all the sports venues shut down and restaurants as well, I think in the intermediate term they run into trouble.  I think earnings will be poor starting tomorrow and for the next few weeks, except the grocers will be winners, and WMT, AMZN.  I raised some cash and put in some low ball buy orders, as I expect a retest of the lows.  I expect forward guidance to be a mess.

 

Volatility seems much more severe than a couple of decades ago.  I attribute that to the fact that we all have 401K's and are hooked up to the internet, so we can buy or sell quickly.  And program trading.  People don't talk anymore about the role of human "market makers" at the exchange vs. the electronic exchanges today.  I think the huge drops in the market are partially caused by the lack of humans in the system.


Blogging at http://RichInvesting.wordpress.com

 

My swing trades typically last a couple of weeks to a couple of months. 


#66 Rich C

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Posted 21 April 2020 - 11:11 PM

I started to sell into strength last week and kept selling Mon. and Tues.  Not everything, I have a few blue chips I bought near the March 23 low, good dividend payers, I can sell covered calls against them (WAY out of the money so they don't get called, or I will be VERY happy if they do).  I have some low ball buys out now, will see if I can catch a fish on this pullback.

 

I had a couple of things I bought at the March low, sold calls, the relief rally went higher than I anticipated, and they got called.  I wish I still had them, JNJ was one.  I will try to buy it back when I see a good price.


Blogging at http://RichInvesting.wordpress.com

 

My swing trades typically last a couple of weeks to a couple of months. 


#67 traderx

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Posted 22 April 2020 - 08:51 AM

I had a couple of things I bought at the March low, sold calls, the relief rally went higher than I anticipated, and they got called.  I wish I still had them, JNJ was one.  I will try to buy it back when I see a good price.

 

 

Many other the last 40  years got excited by the income of covered calls, later saw what you saw!



#68 Rich C

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Posted 13 May 2020 - 09:55 PM

As noted just above, I started selling into strength in late April.  I kept my dividend payers in my core account, and lightened up on my trading account.  Now I'll watch for a buying opportunity when this selling stops.  When I make a buy in my trading account, my timeframe is shorter than it was for the last 10 years.  If it is a bear market, and I think it is a bear market, rallies won't be very long lived.  The March 23 low to the rally high was about a month.  I think the optimists are giving the traders too much credit for "looking through the bad news of Q2" to the positive (potentially) Q3. 


Blogging at http://RichInvesting.wordpress.com

 

My swing trades typically last a couple of weeks to a couple of months.