67 replies to this topic

[Rich C]

I bought a big piece of SPY, smaller pieces of XLF, JPM, LMT, RTN, shortly after Feb. 6.  All are up nicely.  I got about half invested, have just watched since then.  I sold a few things Thursday last week.  I find it hard to believe this 10% correction is over in 2 weeks.  I expect a test of the recent high at 2875, but I suspect it will fail, then we'll drop and test the recent low and the correction will last a few more weeks.  I expect to do some selling if we fail to go to new highs, and hope to buy back in on weakness.  Earnings season will start around April 10th, the first earnings reports under the new corporate tax cuts.  I expect we'll see some profits that are strikingly higher than recent history, and I expect that will juice the market up.  Many times, the market does not do what I expect, so I keep watching.

[Rich C]

Selling today.

[Rich C]

Moderate buyer today.  Will cautiously add if rally continues.

[Rich C]

Sold out Wed. and Thur.  Took a hit.

[Rich C]

I've been out for a couple of weeks, just looked at a couple of individual stocks.  Today I'm glad I stayed out.  I hope to find a tradeable bottom to get ready for earnings season around April 10th.

[Rich C]

I started buying today, XLF, XLK.

[Rich C]

No real change in my outlook on the market.  I have held what I bought, and bought more.  Looks to me like we're in a trading range, and I am encouraged that the bottom of the range (around 2575) has held up under onslaughts.  I am holding for good earnings next week and hopefully a bounce upward.  As one pundit said yesterday, the only thing that bothers him is EVERYONE has the same plan, hold for earnings season and expect a bounce.  When everyone has the same expectation, the market tries to prove them wrong.  It is a little spooky, but I don't have a better plan right now. 

[Rich C]

I had a significant position in XLF that I've held for a few weeks, and I sold it today.  The big banks reported early and then got a pop from rising rates.  I doubt long bonds run up much from here in the short term, they've already made their move, so I don't see much upside for the banks.  I still hold XLK as big tech reports this week, and I've got some SPY.  In the poll, I dropped to partially long.

[Rich C]

Sold out today, in the poll I'm flat now.  If the market can't rise on these earnings, I didn't want to be in it.  If you read my last post on my blog (link in my signature), you'll see what I was thinking Saturday, so I just had to execute this week.

[Rich C]

I bought in a little bit yesterday.  The market moved up over the downtrend line that goes back to the late January high.  RSI was still in neutral territory, maybe has a bit further to run up.  If it can decisively stay above the downtrend, it could run to the top of the trading range up at 2800 on SPX.

 

Edited by Rich C, 11 May 2018 - 11:08 AM.