Strength of Trend
#1
Posted 04 August 2004 - 10:15 PM
U.F.O.
~Benjamin Franklin~
#2
Posted 04 August 2004 - 10:31 PM
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$oex,uu[w,a]waclyiay[dd][pc4!c8!c40!c10!c20!f][vc60][iut!ub14!la5,34,5!ld20!lg!lp14,3,3][j26990866,y]&r=7063.gif
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$xbd,uu[w,a]waclyiay[d20030701,20041231][pb200!b100!b50!d20,2!c40!f][vc60][iut!ub17!la5,34,5!ld20!lg!lp14,3,3][j28947893,y]&r=9559.gif
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$bkx,uu[w,a]waclyiay[d20030301,20041231][pd20,2!c40!c10!c20!f][vc60][iut!ub17!la5,34,5!ld20!lg!lp14,3,3][j33978581,y]&r=2813.gif
#3
Posted 04 August 2004 - 11:02 PM
#4
Posted 04 August 2004 - 11:10 PM
http://www.ttrader.c...20charts&id=982
#5
Posted 04 August 2004 - 11:35 PM
#6
Posted 04 August 2004 - 11:43 PM
#7
Posted 05 August 2004 - 02:10 AM
What is R-Squared measuring? Thanks, I am looking for confirmation of my own analysis. Thx, EJ
Goodness of fit... R^2 measures how well the regression equation fits the data in the look back window.
Regression analysis is a statistical method for fitting and equation to (typically) measured data. The most common equation being fit is a line y = mx + b athough it could be a polynomial, power function, sine wave etc. For a line, given a set of at least two (x,y) data points, using (typically) least squares regression you can find the two unknowns: m (slope) and b (intercept). "Least squares" implies choosing (calculating actually) m and b such that the sum of the squares of the deviations: (actual value (i.e. measured) minus equation predicted)^2 are minimized.
So whats R^2? is a measure of the "goodness of fit" for the solution found by the method of least squares. Its a number that ranges between 1 (a perfect fit... perfect correlation) and zero (a terrible fit no correlation). The other thing UFO is showing is the slope of the regression: m. If its positive, prices (in the window used to determine the equation) are trending up. It its negative, prices ( in the window used to determine the equation) are trending down.
Lest think about this for a minute... the results are highly dependent on what "look back" window is choosen. Lets say price was cycling in a perfect sine wave and you had your regression set to the exact number of bars in the cycle. What would happen? The slope (m) would stay constant ... zero and the correlation coefficient r^2 would stay the same something less than 1 meanwhile price would be swinging above and below the line defined by the regression equation. Potentially profitable trades would be missed.
Another statistical method I like better is Pearson's Rank Correlation. It makes for a very smooth yet responsive momentum measure. To each his/her own.
#8
Posted 05 August 2004 - 03:28 AM
Mark S Young
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#9
Posted 05 August 2004 - 07:53 AM
For those who don't have LR charting access, PC Quotes does have a linear regression channel setting. It is usefull for Fib levels, too. Otherwise, it's not in the same ballpark as StockCharts.
http://www.ttrader.c...20charts&id=982
#10
Posted 05 August 2004 - 09:48 AM
jmicou -Here's another view using a DecisionPoint chart. The 20/50 EMAs that are both curving up have, yet to make the bull cross, but bounced off of the 200 EMA. Nice, tight triangle, too.
http://www.ttrader.c...20charts&id=982
Interesting Chart!
Whut dost thou make of the MACD and CCI studies on the chart?