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Monday Could Top and Drop

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#1 blustar

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Posted 12 October 2017 - 03:53 PM

The SPX made an xyz bull flag today suggesting higher prices into Monday, which should also be a low.  I expect 2560 by Monday then a quick test of 2536 the same day to cover the recent gap up.  Monday is TD 15 off of a 24 TD cycle low.  We had similar moves in early June and again in late July. 
 
All momentum indicators are rolling over suggesting after the next high after Monday we should see some downward selling. Friday could gap up.
 

GDX should see some selling early Friday followed by strength.
 


Blessings,

 

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#2 da_cheif

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Posted 12 October 2017 - 07:14 PM

 

The SPX made an xyz bull flag today suggesting higher prices into Monday, which should also be a low.  I expect 2560 by Monday then a quick test of 2536 the same day to cover the recent gap up.  Monday is TD 15 off of a 24 TD cycle low.  We had similar moves in early June and again in late July. 
 
All momentum indicators are rolling over suggesting after the next high after Monday we should see some downward selling. Friday could gap up.
 

GDX should see some selling early Friday followed by strength.>

>All momentum indicators are rolling over<    except 5 and 12 week rsi's....they arent even over bot yet.......12 hr rsi is closing in on an oversold condition......five and 12 day rsi.s were so overbot that any decline would break them..down......happens all the time.....the days leading up to opex can look great one day and ugly the next    ......traders have a history of being put thru the rings of fire  leading into opex



#3 cycletimer

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Posted 14 October 2017 - 09:57 AM

I sent this out last night, titled "Interesting action into the close..."

 

"I am in several $SPX call credit spreads, meaning I am in a directional short position as I’m net short call options on the $SPX.

All day the calls were up, meaning my positions were down all day. 
Aside from these I’m also long some $VIX calls I purchased yesterday.  

What did the market do today?

It was up. $DOW +33 $SPX +2.39. NAZ +14

The calls I am short should have remained down into the close, the short positions would be UP meaning I’m losing money being short. It’s like being short AMZN or TSLA when they’re UP, you lose $.

Well......

At today’s close all the calls I am short REVERSED! My positions were profitable and my $VIX calls which had been down all day turned UP yet the $VIX closed down 3%. WTF!

Someone knows something....or....the Astro’s are bearish...or....or.....or.....!!!"

 

< My take is we either topped on Friday or we will Monday (when I mean top I am not referring to the top of the bull market, simply an interim top prior to a mild 3-5% correction, maybe up to 7%, not to sound too ambiguous).  My target for a Cycle LOW is October 24th, FWIW......  >



#4 da_cheif

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Posted 14 October 2017 - 11:27 AM

I sent this out last night, titled "Interesting action into the close..."

 

"I am in several $SPX call credit spreads, meaning I am in a directional short position as I’m net short call options on the $SPX.

All day the calls were up, meaning my positions were down all day. 
Aside from these I’m also long some $VIX calls I purchased yesterday.  

What did the market do today?

It was up. $DOW +33 $SPX +2.39. NAZ +14

The calls I am short should have remained down into the close, the short positions would be UP meaning I’m losing money being short. It’s like being short AMZN or TSLA when they’re UP, you lose $.

Well......

At today’s close all the calls I am short REVERSED! My positions were profitable and my $VIX calls which had been down all day turned UP yet the $VIX closed down 3%. WTF!

Someone knows something....or....the Astro’s are bearish...or....or.....or.....!!!"

 

< My take is we either topped on Friday or we will Monday (when I mean top I am not referring to the top of the bull market, simply an interim top prior to a mild 3-5% correction, maybe up to 7%, not to sound too ambiguous).  My target for a Cycle LOW is October 24th, FWIW......  >

>Someone knows something.<....my hand in yours........watch the sky



#5 12SPX

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Posted 14 October 2017 - 12:30 PM

I sent this out last night, titled "Interesting action into the close..."

 

"I am in several $SPX call credit spreads, meaning I am in a directional short position as I’m net short call options on the $SPX.

All day the calls were up, meaning my positions were down all day. 
Aside from these I’m also long some $VIX calls I purchased yesterday.  

What did the market do today?

It was up. $DOW +33 $SPX +2.39. NAZ +14

The calls I am short should have remained down into the close, the short positions would be UP meaning I’m losing money being short. It’s like being short AMZN or TSLA when they’re UP, you lose $.

Well......

At today’s close all the calls I am short REVERSED! My positions were profitable and my $VIX calls which had been down all day turned UP yet the $VIX closed down 3%. WTF!

Someone knows something....or....the Astro’s are bearish...or....or.....or.....!!!"

 

< My take is we either topped on Friday or we will Monday (when I mean top I am not referring to the top of the bull market, simply an interim top prior to a mild 3-5% correction, maybe up to 7%, not to sound too ambiguous).  My target for a Cycle LOW is October 24th, FWIW......  >

The reason your short options went down is because even though the market was up today it wasn't by much and we now only have 4 trading days left for trading on the cash SPX options, 5 on the futures options.  Premium really starts to decay 10 days out, drops like a rock going into the last week!  Good job though, they are always a great income provider!    

 



#6 Bearingly

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Posted 16 October 2017 - 05:35 AM

From following this thread for many years, I would advise ya'll to take a large grain of salt, completely ignore or other wise run away from what Blustar says will happen. He is wrong 95% of the time with his public predictions. He likes throwing hail marys, throwing darts with a blindfold on, etc., if you know what I mean!







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