1565 replies to this topic

[dharma]

following the 70s fractal , 2018 should begin the ascent of gold . many factors will come into play.  because of the 70s fractal i originally thought the 40yr cycle would top in 2020 . i am becoming more open to the idea that 2022 would see the top. we have plenty of time to think about that one.   

this area is the 1st area of real resistance. 1265-1270.  there are plenty of catalysts. here and now.   the hui is at levels seen when gold was in the 400-500 range. it has been sold hard.  after all deflation has been the order of the time. miners perform well in an inflationary environment up until now the opposite has been the order of the day. w/interest rates rising, that should change. we need to see money velocity start to turn up. 0rates give no motivation for folks to do anything, risk is the choice. 

it was time to take the question mark off of course its a theory until we make highs above say 1400

 which i think happens in 18 

dharma  its time to see if the market works higher.  of interest to me is modi barely took gujurat, his home state in the present election. so folks are not enamored w/his work to date

[gismeu]

Hi,

 

short term I agree with dharma. My daily cycle is topping and 1267 is the number to break through to enter the next higher octave.

However, I think we will stay here or retrace a little bit for a few days and then go higher.

 

gis

[gannman]

pretty much convinced the bottom is in as of dec 12. i like the look and the feel of the charts. 

[senorBS]

pretty much convinced the bottom is in as of dec 12. i like the look and the feel of the charts. 

yep, chances look good for that IMO

 

Senor

[dharma]

gdxj made new highs for the move today gdx has not made new highs yet. so the correction idea is alive.  that is a very short term view.  chinese new year is feb 16, 2018  so i believe the rally begins soon and ends near the chinese new years.  unless of course there are geopolitical concerns and economic surprises. But its quite reasonable to expect a 6 week or so rally.   i am bullish for 2018. i want to see gdx break out of this base , w/a rise over 24 and higher.  just sitting ,  looking at the crb chart i think commodities in general stage a good rally raising rates is conducive to that. obviously over the last 2 cot periods the commercials have closed lots of shorts and added to their longs.  =sentiment has given very bullish readings for the contrarians. 

dharma

[Smithy]

Dharma, what is it about Chinese New Year on Feb 16 that makes you think it will be a gold peak?

[dharma]

Dharma, what is it about Chinese New Year on Feb 16 that makes you think it will be a gold peak?

if anything a short term peak. well the chinese buy gold into the chinese new year. it is custom/tradition. indian speculators know this so they tend to buy in front of the chinese and along side of them.  its a seasonal tendency in the gold market http://www.seasonalcharts.com/classics_gold.html  i dont think that will be the high for the year. 

dharma

hope that clarifies my thinking . also w/india and china showing robust gdp growth, that puts more wealth in the hands of their citizens, which equates to more gold buying , for them gold is a store of value

on another note

i have read some folks who think the low is not in, they think there was not a low enough reading of the dsi =13 gold    11 silver at the lows, they think there needs to be a washout.   perhaps.  BUT i am not in that camp. the relentless selling seemed convincing to me and the cots supported that idea .

Edited by dharma, 19 December 2017 - 12:24 PM.

[Smithy]

Thanks.

[gannman]

fwiw i see gld going down for one more dip i could be wrong of course

[senorBS]

 

Dharma, what is it about Chinese New Year on Feb 16 that makes you think it will be a gold peak?

if anything a short term peak. well the chinese buy gold into the chinese new year. it is custom/tradition. indian speculators know this so they tend to buy in front of the chinese and along side of them.  its a seasonal tendency in the gold market http://www.seasonalcharts.com/classics_gold.html  i dont think that will be the high for the year. 

dharma

hope that clarifies my thinking . also w/india and china showing robust gdp growth, that puts more wealth in the hands of their citizens, which equates to more gold buying , for them gold is a store of value

on another note

i have read some folks who think the low is not in, they think there was not a low enough reading of the dsi =13 gold    11 silver at the lows, they think there needs to be a washout.   perhaps.  BUT i am not in that camp. the relentless selling seemed convincing to me and the cots supported that idea .

 

at some point, hopefully now, if doing a big 1-2, i-ii we should not IMO see quite as extreme sentiment that we saw at the final lows and higher secondary lows (that was HUI in Jan and Dec of 2016)

 

Senor