127 replies to this topic

[EntropyModel]

I was putting these in an old thread, probably should start a new one -  I was putting them there for relevance to IT call there, as these things tend to get forgotten.

But anyway,  since this is so ST  I'll put it here, and any future ones here.

 

Updated ST road map chart:

 

https://www.screenca...om/t/aPIHitzw8P

 

* also, this chart will make more sense if you read post I made sunday, and previous ones in thread.

http://www.traders-t...trend/?p=782104

Edited by Entropy3.0, 30 April 2018 - 12:57 PM.

[EntropyModel]

Target circle area hit - 2652  ..we have now entered that next decision circle. 

As said, I don't have strong ST signal either way here, and will wait for the open tomorrow for next setup.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 30 April 2018 - 02:41 PM.

[EntropyModel]

We took the black dotted decision path - gap down/run under 2640 which is bearish for swing/IT.

 

I've update the ST setups road maps now I can identify the targets.

 

I am close to ST buy signals - but the circled area 2610-2620 act like 'price magnets' ..so, even with ST buy pending, its high odds we take one more drop to that zone.

However, as shown, I still favor one more bounce from that area, or 2590 before odds favor a bigger drop as shown.

( note in this case, two 'highest odds' paths - because they are equally likely but depend on REAL TIME SIGNALS that cannot be determine before the actual price move)

 

https://www.screenca.../t/z91260rQZVqQ

 

KEY - This ST decision ( break of 2640) filters up to the SWING/IT decision point ..hence now, those higher targets are removed, and now lower targets for bounces.

btm line there is we are entering deicison circle for swing/IT and down resolution looks close here.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 01 May 2018 - 10:44 AM.

[EntropyModel]

This afternoon - very high odds that 2640 overhead resistance holds, and we drop to 2620 this afternoon, and high odds 2610 or even 2590.

 

I will not front run a bounce here - i'm waiting for clear turn and ST buy signals, which I expect off one of those targets.

 

For those that speak waves - high odds this is minor iv, with v down to come this afternoon.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 01 May 2018 - 11:49 AM.

[EntropyModel]

Dropped to 2625...cd be it ..if we now take out 2640  to upside and hold fro 30 min...but I don't have great signal setup or price setup so I am not a buyer here,

the risk/reward is not good enough either.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 01 May 2018 - 12:53 PM.

[EntropyModel]

Dropped to 2625...cd be it ..if we now take out 2640  to upside and hold fro 30 min...but I don't have great signal setup or price setup so I am not a buyer here,

the risk/reward is not good enough either.

 

It was ( the bounce ), it did (take out 2640, hold for 30min) ..but I still don't like the setup :-) 

High odds we are entering a narrowing range, with fast V reverses within 2620-2680 range. 

Edited by Entropy3.0, 01 May 2018 - 03:19 PM.

[EntropyModel]

FED decision today - I don't expect any material 'news' ..if there is, it will be negative..as expectation is neutral.

 

ST - today, I expect choppy stuff in range, typical wd be drop down to test 2640 area again, ramp up again, drop again etc

 

I am going out for the day mountain biking, I try to avoid trading FED days, (or OPEX )... as usually exercise in frustration.

 

Will see lay of the land later for new setup.

[EntropyModel]

FED decision today - I don't expect any material 'news' ..if there is, it will be negative..as expectation is neutral.

 

ST - today, I expect choppy stuff in range, typical wd be drop down to test 2640 area again, ramp up again, drop again etc

 

I am going out for the day mountain biking, I try to avoid trading FED days, (or OPEX )... as usually exercise in frustration.

 

Will see lay of the land later for new setup.

 

I just got back from my ride to see that worked out perfectly LOL - drop to 2640 yep, ramp back up yep, drop again yep 

[EntropyModel]

OK entering next decision circle, haven't had to update this yet - so big decsion coming here, bounce @ 2590-2610 back up to next circle,

or total failure? 

 

https://www.screenca...om/t/mhTT6gSdUN

 

Right now Signals are sell, and not close to buy ..so TIME is on bears side to try to break us down next hour or more.

[EntropyModel]

 Testing that key 2590.

 

IF 2590 fails, and there is still time because ST signal still not configured for buy, so a bounce holding is low odds ...then the

next circle (not market)  is 2570-2575 ... THAT one, i am looking at as high to very high odds bounce area, for a sizable ramp of 30-60pts up

but it will depend on signals which must goto buy.

 

FYI : ST Signal -  is actually a few signals that generally agree at ST turns.

They first must TRIGGER - before they turn from sell to buy, or buy to sell - currently, some are still not triggered, and that

is why a bounce holding is low odds...not impossible just lower odds.

Note. a trigger can occur through TIME as well as PRICE .so its possible we just churn here now and turn to buy around 2590-2600.

 

btm line - I am still looking for more down pressure to test 2590 next hour or more, until buy signal trigger I expect bounces to fail, but I expect

either 2590 or 2575 area to hold for another 30-60 pt bounce.   I will post real time if I get buy signal.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 03 May 2018 - 10:22 AM.