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Current ST road map


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#21 EntropyModel

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Posted 05 May 2018 - 11:56 AM

Still thinking 2680-2690 for Monday?  Get enough of a sell signal?

 

Hi Waver,

 

Good question. I'll do my best to answer clearly and take the opportunity to explain the signals, and trading system a little for future reference.

 

Yes, I got ST sell signals.  But the signal is currently an 'early warning' and not 'confirmed' sell, which i'll explain.

 

The ST sell signal has about 10 indicators, and they go through a 'lifecycle' as follows, we'll start from them being BUY going to 'sell' and how it relates to actually TRADING them:

 Step 1 - Confirmed BUY - Enter, with stop

 Step 2 - signals move to TRIGGERED for SELL -  this is the PROFIT EXIT ..where ur taking the maximum reward for least risk ( of giving some back).

 Step 3 - Early warning SELL  ( what we had late friday) -  now risk of drop is rising ( giving some back), as often a pullback will appear ( as it did on friday)

 Step 4 - Confirmed SELL  (we do NOT have) -  back to step 1 (except reverse for 'sell' instead of 'buy').

 

The reason I developed signals for those separately, is for me, I only want to trade Confirmed signals, and highest risk/reward trades, not try to catch every $.

 

>> So right here - the lowest risk part of the upmove is now over ( best risk/reward) according to the signals at least.

 

High odds, there is a MARGINAL New high:

i'll estimate 70% of time, we will now make another new high, but its small compared to previous move, we cd insert

Step 3.1 Pause/drop - either sideways chop, or pullback of 0.3 fib retrace roughly.

Step 3.2 make a marginal new high - usually about 0.3 max of the preceeding move ( in our case, say 2680-2690)

 

So summing that up -  as a Trader there are two key probabilities the signal help me identify 

1. The odds of a turn - 'buy' 'sell'

2. The risk/reward during the move from buy to sell, and sell to buy.

 

Right now - we are @ Early warning sell, and risk/reward is 'poor' for upside ..as the downside risk is large if we dont' get a secondary new high, which also isn't much higher

even though its odds on 70/30.

 

I hope that makes sense? let me know if it doesn't.

 

>>What would give a 'confirmed' sell is key -  answer is PRICE.<<

Some of the indicators ( about 10) in the ST signal are not price based, but PRICE is the most important for confirmation. 

 

Currently - confirmed sell is @ 2648

So a drop under that moves us to confirmed sell, that's a fair size drop from here due to the fast move we just had, usually its closer (if we get  secondary move up it will be).

 

I'm Simplifying a bit - there are:

 - other confirmations I use in real time, but price is the most important by far. 

 - i'm ignoring 'context' ..as a waver, you know about 'degree of trend', so my system has buy/sell signals for 3 key degree's of trend: ST, hourly swing, and IT.

Right now the hourly Swing is SELL ( as posted some time ago), and that influences reading of ST signal (next lowest degree) - how?  its means buy signal are more likely

to 'fail', and sells more likely to work out, or right here, it means the buy signal is less likely to crack overhead resistance.

 - calculation of where key pivots are ( the circles)

 

>>Important - Ideal trade occurs when we reach a Key pivot  and get a Signal.<<

The key pivots are type of support resistance but calculated in a unique way, the circle area's, there are actual exact numbers that change in real time.

 

Our current position: 

We crossed the first KP circle, and are below the 2nd (2680-2690), but with Early warning sell. What does this imply for monday?

 -  Highest odds:  around 70%, we will run to 2680-2690  where i'm expecting to get 'divergent secondary sell' ( another complication I left out:

Step 3.3 - signals will show 'divergent' sell, or 'run on buy' ..its possible we get there and signals aren't divergent, in which case my pink path down from 2680-2690 is now 'wrong' and

I have to update with new paths - )

 - Lower odds around 30% we fail to reach it, if that occurs, usually we get a steep fast pullback but then another runup attempt because we didn't 'complete the setup'.

 

This shows danger or FRONT RUNNING a signal WITHOUT A CONFIRMATION - which I won't do. Hence I said friday this is NOT a good sell setup, because

we don't have the ideal setup up -  reaching a decision point  ( the circles), AND a Signal which is confirmed. PATIENCE is the key here. That is a risk profile choice,

a trader willing to sit through big moves against them cd take the early warning signal here, I prefer not to, especially if positions have to be taken near cash close!

 

Bottom line - 

 - I see high odds about 70% a sideways move or drop monday to max 2648, then a secondary high 2680-2690 which i'm then seeing a very high odds ST sell.

 - if we break 2648 (with signal confirmations) - then I have confirmed sell, and not looking for thst move up yet, but can still come after a ST sell.

 

Stepping out one degree of trend - I was expecting this move up to lead to large move down, but, it's possible we  need to spend more time in a more complex pattern here,

I can't tell yet until seeing mondays pattern.


Edited by Entropy3.0, 05 May 2018 - 12:09 PM.

Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#22 EntropyModel

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Posted 07 May 2018 - 09:40 AM

yep - 2680 hit

 

Divergent ST sell signal ( see comments above)

 

So now we have better Sell setup.


Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#23 EntropyModel

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Posted 07 May 2018 - 10:16 AM

Risk reward now to downside at or above 2680 

 

We don't have sell confirmation yet - likely we get a long winded period of churning up here...but a move below 2672 wd

be first warning of sell confirmation ( can't calculate exact level until/if we drop later ...changes with real time).


Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#24 EntropyModel

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Posted 07 May 2018 - 01:02 PM

Risk reward now to downside at or above 2680 

 

We don't have sell confirmation yet - likely we get a long winded period of churning up here...but a move below 2672 wd

be first warning of sell confirmation ( can't calculate exact level until/if we drop later ...changes with real time).

 

FWIW  I can see this running all way into tomorrow, in the circle  ...I marked a similar type setup on the setup chart with Black box, April 18-20.

 

https://www.screencast.com/t/lAQm490i

 

I see very high odds a pullback from 2680-2690 decision zone, 2700 max maybe if the bots decided to flush some stops.

I expect at least a 30pt retrace, but ideally start of pink path down -  but each move into, or out of decision circles update the probabilities,

so will assess, if when that occurs.

 

A move above 2700, I don't have any ST setup and wd be low odds, I wd not be a buyer but don't have a good ST sell setup if that occurred.

.


Edited by Entropy3.0, 07 May 2018 - 01:12 PM.

Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#25 Waver

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Posted 07 May 2018 - 04:33 PM

Thank you for the updates

Think the down move started this afternoon?



#26 EntropyModel

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Posted 07 May 2018 - 05:25 PM

Thank you for the updates

Think the down move started this afternoon?

 

We broke the 1st Key Pivot (KP) 2670-2672, and continued down - in a ranging market, that high odds kicks off a decline.

So High odds, yes. I wd put it about 70%, versus 30% we get one more back test up into the decision circle tomorrow AM.

Sell confirmation is around 2658, ideally we drop below that tomorrow AM.

 

ST signals must be considered in CONTEXT of Swing/IT degree.

I believe we are still in a trading range, not a trending market - that is what my swing, IT signals are indicating.

If we are now trending up, which I put low odds, the first sign would be that this 'Divergent sell' ( see comments on sunday) does not lead to 

an immediate decline tue -thur, and instead we continue up. As said, I am using 2700 area as a 'mental stop' on that, as a warning.


Edited by Entropy3.0, 07 May 2018 - 05:28 PM.

Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#27 EntropyModel

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Posted 08 May 2018 - 11:05 AM

Update:

 

We did drop AM, but did NOT take out KP 2658 required for confirmed sell.

 

We are in a 'complex corrective' minor 'b' wave currently high odds, so I am still looking for a downward resolution below KP2658 but

we  cd chop around for some time before that occurs.

 

It is now LOWER odds that we take the pink path hard drop, I am now putting a longer Swing move up here as higher odds,

but will update if/when we get the drop - as that will add key information.

 

Target for drop - minimum 2650, high odds 2640 or wherever ST signal turns back to buy.


Edited by Entropy3.0, 08 May 2018 - 11:06 AM.

Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#28 EntropyModel

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Posted 08 May 2018 - 12:00 PM

FYI - to be clear, I am not ruling the pink path out - just, it is not as high odds as it was, but if/when we get drop it could change again - we're in a very dynamic environment 

here or 'bottom up' versus 'top down'.

 

What do I mean?

 - Good technicians recognize that CONTEXT is key, that when considering the ST signals, you must look at swing and IT trends effect on them.

 

But, also, I find the opposite is true in some cases, as now, which is the ST signals scale up to effect the Swing/IT. 

 

Infact, both are true here - because we are in a decision point for ST, Swing and IT here ....so all effect each other.

This tends to produce fast moves, whipsaw, confusion.

 

btm line - its best not to have a bias here, just follow price/signals and be REACTIVE ( on where we are NOW) and not too PREDICTIVE ( try to say where it will go too far out).

for now, ST - the only reactive path is down to 2650 ( well, that risk/reward is to downside above 2680 yesterday as I said), beyond that, its getting predictive given this environment.


Edited by Entropy3.0, 08 May 2018 - 12:06 PM.

Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#29 EntropyModel

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Posted 08 May 2018 - 02:04 PM

2655 hit - lowest risk portion of decline from 2680 decision zone is done.

 

Odds still favor further drop or at least no ST buy until the close, however, the risk/reward is more even here.

Action is EXTREMELY choppy.


Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#30 EntropyModel

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Posted 08 May 2018 - 02:41 PM

Some ST buy signals here near close -  I don't like the risk/reward for upside here:

  I wd call it 'neutral' for ST,  within a weak Swing up, IT decline high odds not over.

 

By tomorrow I will likely get new ST setup.


Edited by Entropy3.0, 08 May 2018 - 02:42 PM.

Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB