678 replies to this topic

[Smithy]

3/20/20

Freebie from EWI / Prechter - they say we have started a multi year stock bear mkt.

 

[Smithy]

Reading between the lines it would appear Precher's stock market wave count is calling for the next great depression.

Comments welcome.

[Smithy]

“Most of the largest gold refineries and mints in the world have closed their refining and minting operations for the next two weeks, and this suspension in production may become longer which ...will badly impact supply,” GoldCore said.

 

Published: March 23, 2020 at 4:57 p.m. ET

 

https://www.marketwa...oof2&yptr=yahoo

[Smithy]

3/24/20

 

CME pushed to change gold delivery rules amid coronavirus lockdown

 

https://www.nasdaq.c...impression=true

[dougie]

is gold double topping?

[Smithy]

Coronavirus pandemic has delivered the fastest, deepest economic shock in history Nouriel Roubini

 

 

https://www.theguard...hock-in-history

[Smithy]

Re this week's COT:

1) the hedge funds net long position is at record levels. They are usually wrong.

2) silver small specs interest in being long has disappeared - only 67% net long, a low number for them.

 

- both fairly strong bearish signs, although they can be wrong from time to time.

[Smithy]

John Maudlin

 

Federal Reserve and other bank regulators have relaxed some rules so lenders can be more patient with people who fall behind on their loan payments. It’s called “forbearance.” I think we all agree that’s necessary under the circumstances.

 

The problem is they didn’t grant forbearance to mortgage servicers, the companies who collect payments, handle tax escrows, etc. They also take risk as mortgages wind through the system from origination to the investors who actually own them. The servicer must make payments to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and especially Ginnie Mae, even if the mortgage is delinquent. Normally the risk is small. Suddenly it is not.

 

The problem is that the mortgage service providers are the fan belt of the economic engine. It is a $3 part (or was when I was a kid and installed them myself) but the entire engine freezes up if it breaks.

 

The mortgage belt has snapped and we are weeks away from the entire housing engine collapsing. This morning we learned that Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is aware of this “minor issue” and is trying to decide what to do. He needs to decide quickly

[Russ]

Seems to me this forum went from raging bullishness to raging bearishness.

Are we good or what

I posted that my SPX chart was indicating a low in early April, that signal is still there and it appeared last December, although the huge volatility has violated it somewhat but we will see if the final low will happen this coming week or possibly April 6th the following monday. Dharma of course warned that gold stocks could be sucked down in a general market sell off too. 

[Smithy]

Gold has split into two markets: paper gold and physical gold.

 

Is this a temporary response to the virus crisis, or a permanent transition to gold being perceived differently?