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The unfolding upmove in gold

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#481 Smithy

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Posted 21 April 2020 - 10:17 AM

Kyle Bass: On US and China Fallout and Recovery from COVID 19, and Hong Kong’s Looming Banking Crisis

By Jan Jekielek
: April 18, 2020

With countries around the world in quarantine or lockdown mode to deal with the Wuhan coronavirus or CCP virus pandemic, what can we expect in terms of economic fallout?

What evidence has emerged showing the Chinese Communist Party is culpable?

What will happen to the US, Chinese, and Hong Kong economies as the pandemic wanes?

And why is Hong Kong’s situation particularly perilous?

In this episode, we sit down with Kyle Bass, the founder and chief investment officer of Hayman Capital Management, a Dallas-based hedge fund. Bass is a founding member of the Committee on the Present Danger: China, and he is also Chairman of the Board of The Rule of Law Foundation.

This is American Thought Leaders, and I’m Jan Jekielek.

Jan Jekielek: Kyle Bass, such a pleasure to have you back on American Thought Leaders.

Kyle Bass: Thank you. Great to be here, Jan.

Mr. Jekielek: Kyle, you’ve been this fierce speaker on the Chinese Communist Party’s culpability behind this virus. We’re going to talk about all sorts of economy-related stuff because this is your wheelhouse and everyone wants to hear.

Mr. Bass: I just think it’s important for the press to really think about, and for the world to think about what really happened in a timeline, and not some conspiracy theory because China won’t allow us in, and won’t allow our scientists to try to find patient zero and origin of the virus. And in fact, you’ve probably seen recent communiques between the Chinese Communist Party and their labs that their lab output has to be censored by the CCP, or that has anything to do with the Wuhan virus, [has to be approved] before it goes to the rest of the world. So, they are very sensitive on this topic—number one.

And number two, if you look back to the timeline, and you understand what happened, China has an enormous culpability. They actually have a legal liability, and one that’s a financial liability. I don’t know if you’ve seen various interviews in the last few days of U.S. legislators but there is a growing tide, of not only resentment, but a growing tide of people in the legislative branch of the U.S. and the UK governments, and now it’s bleeding into Australia and Canada, where they’re starting to say that we need to use the rule of law, the U.S. rule of law, the British Common Law, to start talking about reparations and getting the Chinese government to pay for their malign actions.

 

And I think it’s important to note: on December 31, there were already 104 cases and 19 deaths in Wuhan. The Wuhan scientists, the heroes who first found this strange new pneumonia that was propagating itself so freely in Wuhan, not only were they arrested, and punished, and forced to retract statements that they had put on WeChat, but as you know, since then, one of the doctors who was 33 years old has died from the Wuhan virus.

Secondarily, that all happened in December. So by December 31, the government of Taiwan sent a white paper to the World Health Organization explaining that they had full evidence that there was human-to-human transmission, and that it was going to be a new global pandemic. And if you remember, on January 14, Tedros said to the world in a proclamation on a Tweet that this is not a global pandemic, and that he had just consulted with Xi Jinping and the Chinese, and that there is no evidence of human-to-human transmission—this is January 14. And then January 23, Xi Jinping closed down all air traffic from Wuhan to the rest of China. But he allowed Wuhan air traffic to travel to the rest of the world.

 

Essentially, Xi Jinping knowingly infected the rest of the world. … “If he’s going to go down, the world is going to go down with him,” essentially what he was saying. That is not a responsible actor. That is not a government who’s ideologically aligned with the rest of the West. This is a government that basically covered up the truth. And we all know that they covered up the truth, but now, it’s actually after Neil Ferguson’s Boston Globe article, and now you see that the Chinese Foreign Ministry said on February 2 that it is xenophobic to close anyone’s borders to the Chinese, and that travel restriction shouldn’t be made. Xi Jinping himself shut down Wuhan, January 23; this is February 2, they’re telling the world this.

They are the most lying, coercive, manipulative government in the world, and you and I both know, they are committing the largest crimes against humanity prior to this outbreak of the sinister virus that God knows where it really came from—somewhere between the Wuhan wet market, the Chinese Center for Disease Control, which is right across the street, or maybe 20 miles north, at the Biosafety Level 4 lab in China. But the bottom line is, this disease has been unleashed on the rest of the world, and it was knowingly done so. And that’s why I’m so visibly upset about this.

And I think that you probably saw the Jackson Foundation in the UK, the Harvard professors in the U.S., are starting to set forth a legal framework for which international laws (that) China has broken, and the fact that there is a financial liability. As you remember, Chinese [SMEs] (small-medium enterprises) have businesses, and properties, and stock issued in all the various markets in the West. There is a way that we can go after them and grab their assets.

 

And [Mitch McConnell] this morning in an interview on Maria Bartiromo’s show said that China also owns a trillion dollars of U.S. Treasury bills, and those are just book entry bills. We could actually grab and basically forgive that debt—basically cancel that debt. There are plenty of things the government can do here to make China pay for its actions. And the beauty of all that, Jan, is one thing we’ll never be able to do: the West will never stoop to China’s lows. We will never out-lie, we will never out-cheat, will never out-steal, the Chinese Communist Party—they’re the “best” in the world. But what we can do is we can use the foundational bedrock of our countries, the rule of law, and we can exercise and enforce our laws on them for their malfeasance. And that is the play, that is how we level the playing field, against such a tyrannical lying actor. theepochtimes.com



#482 dougie

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Posted 21 April 2020 - 08:25 PM

scary talk that



#483 Smithy

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Posted 24 April 2020 - 09:43 AM

Morningstar's analysis of the impact of the pandemic

 

https://www.mornings...-2008-recession



#484 Smithy

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Posted 27 April 2020 - 09:21 AM

Thoughts from Yours Truly. Comments welcome.

 

The Morningstar report's (https://www.mornings...-2008-recession) "historically large stimulus" is the largest ever in US history. From 2010 to 2018 quantity of money and nominal GDP were the same at 4%. By this time next year the quantity of money will have increased by 15 to 20% . That is near the peak rates of money expansion during and after WW1 and WW2 and well above the levels of the inflationary 1970s. Looks like we are headed into an inflationary boom.

 

We're in the end stages of the long term debt cycle that was launched at Bretton Woods in 1944 establishing USD hegemony. While America printing dollars is great for us as we exploit our reserve currency status, other countries that don't have US dollars will suffer as 70% of the world economy is in USD.  Another consequence of money printing is that US is headed into a debt blowout. At the same time State and Fed tax revenues are plunging. Inflation will help solve the debt problem but we can expect severe tax hikes as well as budget cuts and belt tightening.

 

Stock market should go up in the early stages of the inflationary boom, with weakness further in the cycle as the usual inflation assets take front stage.  The historical analog  is Roosevelt's New Deal in 1933, so the events that unfolded from there into WW2 should be a rerun, same stage of the debt cycle and similar mix of responses. China in the wings is the new Nazi Germany, the up-and-coming power driving to dislodge the incumbent US.

 

Take a look at this interview by Kyle Bass with China specialist General Spalding  - https://www.youtube....h?v=kl5279dWqGs



#485 Smithy

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Posted 27 April 2020 - 09:33 AM

Lifted from elsewhere... 

 

Sprott just bought into MAG, $60 million in private placement (common)



#486 Smithy

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Posted 01 May 2020 - 12:05 PM

Gold much stronger than silver this Friday morning.



#487 Smithy

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Posted 02 May 2020 - 08:19 AM

HUI and GLD compared at Friday's close

 

5-2-20-HUI.jpg



#488 Smithy

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Posted 05 May 2020 - 09:24 AM

Nice when a particular stock or ETF seems to clarify the count.

 

5-5-20.jpg



#489 Smithy

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Posted 06 May 2020 - 11:58 AM

Looking for a low today Weds in silver, with an outside chance it's tomorrow. Spot currently 14.94



#490 Smithy

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Posted 09 May 2020 - 08:13 AM

5-9-20-target-1965.jpg







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