254 replies to this topic

[beta]

Looks like we'll get the higher bounce to SP 2600.   I still view this as a technical bounce only.

[EntropyModel]

Yeah we got a small corrective bounce - same old back sweep pattern with gap up.

 

I don't have bottom signals yet, but getting close on some - but this is where some really big down move can come, flash type moves.

 

I still see as posted 2480 as minimum, possibe 2450 in a intraday move...but, if tape doesn't change...we won't get the IT buy signals I need

and then were in real trouble since big magnet to 2300 area here.

 

LAst hour today will be good read - do 'they' save it again @ 2530? if not..then I see the panic flush coming now...not waiting for FED tomorrow.

Difficult to say, but the LQ says very difficult to hold 2530 this time.

[EntropyModel]

They did -  manage to save it again.  Clearly they do NOT want 'market panic' headlines into the already politicized FED 'decision' tomorrow,

once that's done - its OPEX friday ..so lots of 'games' afoot here.

[EntropyModel]

I spoke too soon - that drop into close, and now futures ..back to 2530'ish...

 

so it might just have been alot of 'short covering' near close ahead of the FED, and not a 'save' as such.

 

Have to watch the overnight futures ..and see if  2530 magically holds ...or we finally 'let go' with big

gap down and run.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 18 December 2018 - 04:23 PM.

[EntropyModel]

so yep - the magic held 

 

Now we enter X-gamers paradise - the FED, and OPEX Fri.

 

I can't believe they won't flush stops below 2530 before an IT low, and also that they won't flush shorts at some point 2pm today into fri

or before a real failure of 2500.

 

NOW - HEADS UP 

My Daily swing AND hourly Swing signals are now finally 'triggered for buy'. So the easy part of calling the decline is over.

Now have to earn every call, and given this x-gamer zone ..its going to be extra difficult.

 

Comments on those signals from my blog:

https://www.screencast.com/t/ei6V6FXXn

[EntropyModel]

I often say in x-gamer zone - 'think like the criminals' ..that is, what price action will screw the most short term traders?

 

This is more guestimate than science but my best guestimate - 

 - park SPX in 2550's into 2pm  ..that will give the most options for spikes up/down causing ST stop outs.

 

Then either big spike down below 2530 that reverse up into 'barn burner bounce'  ..80-100pt in short order.

Or 

Spike it up 50-60pts straight up  into close...then down tomorrow.

 

The x-game options are endless tbh here - I doubt we get either an IT low, or a real break of 2500 here just yet, but, as said its

a question now of using price as the most important signal.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 19 December 2018 - 10:56 AM.

[EntropyModel]

OK so no spike up first - just straight down to flush the stops under 2530 looks high odds.

 

As said, i'm wary here of intraday drop under 2530 being reversed ..will be on look out for VST buy, or 

any such setup.

 

for now - VSt is sell ..lets see if bear can do any damage with the ball.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 19 December 2018 - 02:14 PM.

[EntropyModel]

FUGLY corrective bounce there for nth time off* 2530 

 

This looks alot more bearish now on my stuff - last hour will be the tell.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 19 December 2018 - 02:46 PM.

[EntropyModel]

All can do is follow the signal here - bearish for now, see update

https://www.screenca...om/t/h0sdLHD1wr

 

but watch each price 'bounce' for reversal potential - so far, no dice.

 

As said, more likely off 2500, or 2480'ish.

 

* I shd add, this does look like final wave 'v' to me down ..but, it can extended ALOT as Imentioned 

The VXN is too low, as is trin for low yet...but we're getting there - once they hit ST buy...the reversal up chances increase.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 19 December 2018 - 03:03 PM.

[EntropyModel]

Corrective bounce again here - I expect a tag of that 2480 target ...possibly even 2460 here because VST still sell.

 

Today is good case in point of not needing to 'predict' - just wait for setup/signal in real time.

 

* wow, I just checked the ISEE, CBOE, vix ...what the heck is it going to take to get real panic? lks like we

will find out shortly !

Edited by Entropy3.0, 19 December 2018 - 03:29 PM.