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Intermediate Trend commentary


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#21 EntropyModel

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Posted 19 December 2018 - 03:39 PM

Shd be down into close to targets here ...then we'll see..but I see very high risk of waterfall to 2300 area as I mentioned, if signals

don't line up at targets (2450-2480) and right now, they are NOT .


Edited by Entropy3.0, 19 December 2018 - 03:39 PM.

Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#22 EntropyModel

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Posted 19 December 2018 - 04:14 PM

Bearish continuation pattern into close - bulls last hope here is we tag 2480 tomorrow AM and put in a reversal.

If we lose 2480 my system goes into 'waterfall' mode..and 2300 is not out the question quickly.

A bounce isn't good either - more 'slope of hope'.

 

The biggest problem remains the tape as i've discussed - endless 'backsweeps' clearing shorts.. no fear then on each drop off the sweep like today,

look at VIX today! crazy!! ...ISEE!! ... these are not typical of a market breaking massive technically important zones.

 

I remain bearish the IT until I see panic, and or a clear price reversal.

 

OF course the aim is also to catch bounces ..but really haven't been any worth the risk here recently.


Edited by Entropy3.0, 19 December 2018 - 04:17 PM.

Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#23 EntropyModel

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Posted 19 December 2018 - 04:32 PM

 

Bottom line - I'm bearish the IT still here, and see high odds a move down to 2530-2550, but, also high odds a move to 2480 or even 2450 in panic move intraday ( not closing low). We can always bounce, but, I expect any bounce to be short lived, and limited to fib (50% max) retracements of proceeding drops. 
 
 

 

FYI  the targets post in top of thread were met today - though as said I still dont' see the IT low YET.


Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#24 EntropyModel

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Posted 20 December 2018 - 12:00 PM

Bearish continuation pattern into close - bulls last hope here is we tag 2480 tomorrow AM and put in a reversal.

If we lose 2480 my system goes into 'waterfall' mode..and 2300 is not out the question quickly.

A bounce isn't good either - more 'slope of hope'.

 

The biggest problem remains the tape as i've discussed - endless 'backsweeps' clearing shorts.. no fear then on each drop off the sweep like today,

look at VIX today! crazy!! ...ISEE!! ... these are not typical of a market breaking massive technically important zones.

 

I remain bearish the IT until I see panic, and or a clear price reversal.

 

OF course the aim is also to catch bounces ..but really haven't been any worth the risk here recently.

 

yep :-)

 

Also  'risk on, risk off' signal is signalling 'waterfall' here ...until it gets off that signal,  its doesn't matter what sentiment, internals etc say - its

a LIQUIDITY EVENT  ...without enough $ to run the bots to keep market at artificial pricing , gravity simply causes REPRICE quickly down to

non artificial pricing.

 

We could bounce around a little bit here 2450-2500 ..after that, I see us going straight down, few bounces to 23XX in next 3-5 trading sessions.


Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#25 MDurkin

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Posted 20 December 2018 - 12:11 PM

 

Bearish continuation pattern into close - bulls last hope here is we tag 2480 tomorrow AM and put in a reversal.

If we lose 2480 my system goes into 'waterfall' mode..and 2300 is not out the question quickly.

A bounce isn't good either - more 'slope of hope'.

 

The biggest problem remains the tape as i've discussed - endless 'backsweeps' clearing shorts.. no fear then on each drop off the sweep like today,

look at VIX today! crazy!! ...ISEE!! ... these are not typical of a market breaking massive technically important zones.

 

I remain bearish the IT until I see panic, and or a clear price reversal.

 

OF course the aim is also to catch bounces ..but really haven't been any worth the risk here recently.

 

yep :-)

 

Also  'risk on, risk off' signal is signalling 'waterfall' here ...until it gets off that signal,  its doesn't matter what sentiment, internals etc say - its

a LIQUIDITY EVENT  ...without enough $ to run the bots to keep market at artificial pricing , gravity simply causes REPRICE quickly down to

non artificial pricing.

 

We could bounce around a little bit here 2450-2500 ..after that, I see us going straight down, few bounces to 23XX in next 3-5 trading sessions.

 

Thanks for sharing...



#26 EntropyModel

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Posted 20 December 2018 - 03:08 PM

 

Thanks for sharing...

 

 

Ur Welcome MDurkin ..thanks for taking time to give feedback, I appreciate it!


Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#27 kaiser soze

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Posted 20 December 2018 - 04:48 PM

Very perceptive observations - thanks.  I mostly concur.  Before the resumption of the waterfall decline, there might be an OPEX bounce tomorrow to 2532 to relieve some oscillators from "Deeply Oversold" to "Oversold". And for market makers to pocket VIX-30 put premium by options expiration.   



#28 EntropyModel

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Posted 20 December 2018 - 07:11 PM

Very perceptive observations - thanks.  I mostly concur.  Before the resumption of the waterfall decline, there might be an OPEX bounce tomorrow to 2532 to relieve some oscillators from "Deeply Oversold" to "Oversold". And for market makers to pocket VIX-30 put premium by options expiration.   

 

Thx Kaiser -  cd be bounce, hard to predict the overnight games ..but this looks like all the other weak corrective bounce to me, the lack of LQ is preventing alot of the normal

games that are played - this is not a 'normal market'  due to 'bot LQ cascade failure ...the 'vicious' opposite of the 'virtuous'  'bots that run the market to the sky on pixie dust.

Without the infinite LQ, those 'bots are now selling it down in reverse fashion...and they don't care about Thx giving, or Xmas, or OPEX or the FED or anything else.

 

I've also got various road maps - similar setups ...saying its unlikely we get above 2500 again here before heading to 23XX.


Edited by Entropy3.0, 20 December 2018 - 07:12 PM.

Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#29 EntropyModel

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Posted 21 December 2018 - 11:05 AM

Held 2500 on the bounce as per waterfall setup -  waterfall road maps call for drop to 2400'ish today next BUT bots might 'park it' for xmas now - market is 'slowing down' which

hints at that ...e.g. 2440-2500 through monday xmas half session - then resume the decline wed-fri next week.

 

If someone asked me 'Define a corrective bounce' I wd point them at this bounce :-)


Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#30 EntropyModel

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Posted 21 December 2018 - 12:11 PM

- 'bots need to give market a 'xmas miracle' here ...or we drop to tgts above....if we 'magically'  hold the low @ 2440 then

high odds its park in range 2440-2500 into xmas now. ..but its lower odds than new lows here today because the 'bots don't celebrate the holidays :-)


Edited by Entropy3.0, 21 December 2018 - 12:14 PM.

Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB