12 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

This is the monthly SPX until end of 2018. 

Firstly, that was a massive December 2018 SPX monthly candle, 400 points, equivalent to more than 9 months of the bull market during the previous 2 years. It was indeed a record monthly candle, never has there been a larger one.

Good news for the bulls is the close on Dec 31st 2018 that was more than 6% from the monthly and yearly low.

 

But, that is not guarantee of a sustainable reversal. 2008 is one example of what appears to be a reversal candle but the decline continued after a brief respite. In 2011 and 2016, the markets recovered and the long-term bull was intact.....until NOW? 

 

Will 2019 be like 2008 (down) or like 2011 and 2016 (up)?

 

Or, will it be a choppy sideways market that finishes 2019 with about 2% up or down? 

[dTraderB]

This is a yearly BKX chart..... does not look good for the bullish case:

 

Sven Henrich‏Verified account @NorthmanTrader

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$BKX yearly outside reversal candles.

[dTraderB]

On the first day of December 2018, I asked:

 

Is the Great Bull Market over? Could be that today is the Turning point

Started by dTraderB, Dec 03 2018 02:49 PM

See link below

 

One month later, on January 1st 2019, I now ask :

is this a bear market rally (short, sharp, and a ST bear trap) that will resume in early January ?? 

 

Yes, I believe this is a bear market rally but it could be quite punishing for the bears. 

And, it will be very choppy for both bears & bulls. 

 

 

http://www.traders-t...-turning-point/

[dTraderB]

Charlie Bilello‏Verified account

 

 

@charliebilello

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Poll results: is this the big one (next 2000-02/2007-09) or just another large correction (2011/2015-16)?

9:14 AM - 28 Dec 2018

 

[dTraderB]

Holger Zschaepitz‏ @Schuldensuehner

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New year starts w/ #China doom: Caixin Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.7 in Dec, from Nov’s 50.2, below no-change consensus. New orders also fell, for first time since Jun2016. Suggests that activity unlikely to begin a recovery until H2, Pantheon Macro says.

11:47 PM - 1 Jan 2019

[dTraderB]

Carl Quintanilla‏Verified account @carlquintanilla

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Oppenheimer charts all bear cycles since 1932 and argues the stock market still needs “additional price consolidation” — either a double-bottom or a ‘V’ reversal off a failed breakdown. (via @pattidomm)

 

6:47 PM - 1 Jan 2019

[dTraderB]

I expect the S&P 500 to visit 2,000 sometime in 2019 and then bounce around that bottom for much of the year. This would represent a decrease in the S&P’s trailing PE multiple to around 15x which feels like a bottom to me given the recent history of the equity markets in the US:

 

Joe Weisenthal

‏ @TheStalwart

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"I expect the S&P 500 to visit 2,000 sometime in 2019" -- @avc https://avc.com/2019/01/what-is-going-to-happen-in-2019/ …

2:52 AM - 2 Jan 2019

[dTraderB]

Joe Weisenthal‏ @TheStalwart

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From Stephen Enlander, precursor surveys to the ISM showing one of their biggest plunges ever

5:12 AM - 2 Jan 2019

[12SPX]

Thanks db for all the information so great!!!  

[zoropb]

yup what 12 said.  Thanks for all your time and effort db.