Jump to content



Photo

ST & IT Long, bulls power on, best January since 1987


  • Please log in to reply
21 replies to this topic

#1 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 4,895 posts

Posted 31 January 2019 - 07:29 PM

1987? 

Don't be superstitious, it's not a repeat of 1987, but it could be a mini version!

 

Good earnings provide more fuel for this great January rally the best in 32 years.

 

Trade negotiations progress - even minor - as well as spin, can take market to the SPX 200ma tomorrow 

 

If shutdown negotiations in Congress can be concluded successfully and there continues to be good earnings report then SPX 2800 can be reached in February.

 

But, I am looking for a pullback during the next 2 to 3 trading days. What happens after that will be very important: will it resume this strong rally or will it reverse down 5 to 10%

 

I am building a big QQQ JUNE Put position, at least 40 puts by the times SPX reaches SPX 2740. I expect SPX 2500 or lower by late February or early March.

 

Don't be fooled by a record January for the markets https://bloom.bg/2UwUp4K  via @bopinion

Market historians are likely to remember January 2019 for years to come. Not only did the S&P 500 Index turn in its best start to a year since 1987 by surging 7.87 percent, but global equities, bonds and commodities all generated positive returns in the same month for the first time since last January. But that’s where the similarities between the moves end, which is too bad.

The MSCI All-Country World Index of equities has jumped 7.80 percent, while the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index was up 0.92 percent through Wednesday and the Bloomberg Commodity Index has surged 5.23 percent. Those just returning from an Elon Musk-sponsored flight to Mars might look at the financial markets and conclude that all is right in the world. In reality, the gains are coming when global economic growth is rapidly decelerating to the point where central bankers are being forced to delay their plans to normalize monetary policies. That’s far different from this time last year, when the buzzwords were global synchronized economic recovery and tighter monetary policy. But as we know, 2018 turned out to be a terrible year for stocks, bonds and commodities, showing that good beginnings don’t always end well. (Everyone remembers what happened in 1987, right?) Will 2019 turn out different? Anything’s possible, but the odds are long given that the recent gains have more to do with relief that the Federal Reserve has had a change of heart and is less likely to cause a recession through excessive interest-rate hikes. But that still leaves a slowing economy no longer supported by either tax cuts or surging corporate profits, which doesn’t engender a lot of confidence

 



#2 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 4,895 posts

Posted 31 January 2019 - 07:38 PM

STOP IT! The guy did what he thought best....

 

This is the year when the Federal Reserve’s credibility finally died

https://www.marketwa...died-2019-01-31



#3 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 4,895 posts

Posted 31 January 2019 - 07:40 PM

Tom McClellan: As Goes January...? Really?
Tom McClellan |  January 31, 2019 at 04:16 PM

 

154897975584950213276.gif

The stock market’s relationship to its normal seasonality has gotten wacky lately. October to December is supposed to be an up period for stock prices, and instead we saw a very sharp correction. In recent years, January has typically seen a meaningful decline, but the stock market instead powered higher. In fact, the DJIA’s 7.2% gain in January 2019 was the strongest January since 1989.

This makes for a good time to bring up the old idea of the “January Barometer,” which is the belief that the stock market’s behavior in the month of January is determinative of what it will do for the whole year. It is not to be confused with the “January Effect,” which is the tendency for small cap stocks to outperform in January. 

The January Barometer was made famous by Yale Hirsch of the Stock Trader's Almanac. And there is some legitimacy to its billing as a harbinger of what is coming.  But there are also problems with that.

Using data since 1928, the January Barometer has correctly predicted the DJIA’s return for the whole year 75.28% of the time.  That sounds pretty good, until we realize that the DJIA has been up for the year 67% of the time over that period.  So one could have just guessed “up” exclusively and come pretty close to the track record of the January Barometer.

https://stockcharts....ary-really.html



#4 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 4,895 posts

Posted 31 January 2019 - 07:42 PM

where the air is rare....

 

McClellanOsc_469.gif

 

 

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/



#5 cycletimer

cycletimer

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 2,407 posts

Posted 31 January 2019 - 10:51 PM

The longer we stay up here and above 2600, the less and less likely the market touches/retests the Dec lows. I think a 2-3% pullback from here is all we get, some sideways action, followed by a rally to new all time highs at 3200 area. Thats my fearless forecast for the first 1/2 of 2019.

As for my positioning, I own a few stocks I purchased early this month, sold covered calls against them. Im not buying anymore stocks nor ETFs at present but I have selectively sold cash-covered puts on a dozen individual stocks (as a synthetic long position).

(I dont post often anymore as I havent felt compellled to and in a self-deprecating manner, dont feel my posts add much value to this board.). I dont trade as actively as I used to. Im mostly in CD ladders, municipal bonds and investment real estate. With the stable cash flow from these other asset classes Ive decided to de-stress my life by trading less and less and Im far happier. Regardless, I still enjoy reading the postings from many contributors on this board.

Edited by cycletimer, 31 January 2019 - 10:57 PM.


#6 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 4,895 posts

Posted 01 February 2019 - 06:26 AM

The longer we stay up here and above 2600, the less and less likely the market touches/retests the Dec lows. I think a 2-3% pullback from here is all we get, some sideways action, followed by a rally to new all time highs at 3200 area. Thats my fearless forecast for the first 1/2 of 2019.

As for my positioning, I own a few stocks I purchased early this month, sold covered calls against them. Im not buying anymore stocks nor ETFs at present but I have selectively sold cash-covered puts on a dozen individual stocks (as a synthetic long position).

(I dont post often anymore as I havent felt compellled to and in a self-deprecating manner, dont feel my posts add much value to this board.). I dont trade as actively as I used to. Im mostly in CD ladders, municipal bonds and investment real estate. With the stable cash flow from these other asset classes Ive decided to de-stress my life by trading less and less and Im far happier. Regardless, I still enjoy reading the postings from many contributors on this board.

 

Thanks for your opinion, you are welcome to post anytime. 

 

My high for the year is in the SPX 2800/2850 area.  I think the 2018 high will not be surpassed until AFTER the next recession.

 

My low for 2019 is in the 2150/2200 region.

 

All I want is VOLATILITY & BIG RANGE candles, in all timeframes 



#7 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 4,895 posts

Posted 01 February 2019 - 06:31 AM

Once CHINA stays afloat, global equities will rise or hold their gains

 

Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner
FollowFollow @Schuldensuehner
More

The Year of the Pig is shaping up to be a lot better than the Year of the Dog for #China stocks. Shanghai Comp keeps climbing as investors hope for Chinese authorities to unveil new rules & stimulus to support shares.

DyT5i1uW0AA4BjP.jpg
1:46 AM - 1 Feb 2019


#8 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 4,895 posts

Posted 01 February 2019 - 06:36 AM

VXXB below 33 will stir my interest in going LONG (short SPX); it is now trading with a 35 handle

 

Charlie Bilello

Verified account @charliebilello
FollowFollow @charliebilello
More

The Volatility Index closed just above its 200-day moving avg today, lowest level since Dec 3. Has not closed below 200-day since Oct 5. $VIX

DyST4oWW0AIRo0Z.jpg
6:23 PM - 31 Jan 2019


#9 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 4,895 posts

Posted 01 February 2019 - 06:40 AM

Bad start continues for China economy as private data shows manufacturing activity weakest since 2016
 
  • The Caixin Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 48.3 in January from 49.7 in December, the lowest since February 2016
  • On Thursday, the official PMI rose to 49.5 from 49.4 in December, but both indexes signal contraction in factory activity

 

https://www.scmp.com...vate-data-shows

 

 

Are CHINA equities bottoming? or still in crashing mode?

 

Keith McCulloughVerified account @KeithMcCullough
FollowFollow @KeithMcCullough
More

CHINA: after bouncing Chinese stocks to lower-highs at the start of OCT and DEC, now what? Still in crash mode -26.4% since JAN 18

DyUAVmTWkAA4REi.jpg
2:15 AM - 1 Feb 2019

Edited by dTraderB, 01 February 2019 - 06:45 AM.


#10 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 4,895 posts

Posted 01 February 2019 - 06:43 AM

Hearing a lot of this: the Dec low is the new floor for the market for a long long time!

 

Bill Petersen @WBPetersen
FollowFollow @WBPetersen
More

He's moved on: The Christmas Eve stock market low could be a generational bottom like in March 2009: Fundstrat's Tom Lee

2:39 AM - 1 Feb 2019
and many have made tons of $$ from the long Bond trade
Keith McCulloughVerified account @KeithMcCullough
FollowFollow @KeithMcCullough
More

LONG BOND: a much better preservation of wealth position than US stocks since they peaked back in SEP, 2.63% 10yr

DyUEMRUXgAERgDp.jpg
2:32 AM - 1 Feb 2019