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A no-burger nothing day: ST FLAT, IT SHORT


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 07:31 PM

NO! Every day is important! 

Today's sideways day tells us the market is indecisive, waiting on a catalyst to go either up or down, but basically resting after a volatile 2-month period. 

 

ST FLAT, IT Short, daily 200ma & 50ma above the market, much work needed to move above those levels. 

 

This is a longer term view, the SPX weekly

 

4129_15499276331.png

 

and daily

4129_15499276467.png

 

https://breakpointtrades.com


Edited by dTraderB, 11 February 2019 - 07:32 PM.


#2 dTraderB

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 07:36 PM

OddStats @OddStats
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$SPX has just done something fairly rare: ▻ 3 straight closes within 0.14% of each other ▻ All under the 200d moving avg It had only happened twice in the last decade. Here are the forward returns after every event since electronic trading began in 1983 (overlaps excluded).

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1:50 PM - 11 Feb 2019


#3 dTraderB

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 07:39 PM

Barely moved

 

McClellanOsc_476.gif

 

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/

 

Greed 

 

https://money.cnn.co...fear-and-greed/



#4 dTraderB

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 07:45 PM

cpPsHIB6_bigger.jpegUrban Carmel @ukarlewitz
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Breadth momentum $NYSI will cross over +900 in the next 2 days. Notes on chart. Be alert to a DD but the low retest not likely $spx

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9:25 AM - 6 Feb 2019


#5 dTraderB

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 07:47 PM

SentimenTraderVerified account @sentimentrader
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12:40 PM - 11 Feb 2019


#6 dTraderB

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 07:53 PM

Stock market may be in for a rude awakening as profits dry up, warns strategist

Morgan Stanley cuts 2019 S&P 500 EPS growth target to 1%

 

Mike Wilson, chief equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, on Monday downgraded S&P 500’s earnings-per-share growth target for the year to 1% from 4.3% and warned of a looming earnings recession.

“Our earnings recession call is playing out even faster than we expected,” said Wilson in a report. “When we made our call for a greater than 50% chance of an earnings recession this year, we thought it might take a bit longer for the evidence to build.”

The strategist, whose views on the stock market are among the more subdued in the industry, believes the odds of a contraction in corporation’s bottom line are rising with the possibility of flat earnings in the first half and a “hockey stick” for the second half.

 

https://www.marketwa...gist-2019-02-11



#7 dTraderB

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 07:55 PM

Disagree with this; a deal will send SPX up by at least 5%, but ultimately earnings & GDP rule the market

 

Why the U.S.-China trade deal won’t help stocks

https://www.marketwa...-why-2019-02-11



#8 dTraderB

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 07:57 PM

We are listening, let's see if you are right.

 


U.S. stock market is set to fall this week, according to Elliott Wave theory

Elliott Wave analysis subdivides this corrective rally I have been expecting (which is labeled as a b-wave) with an [a]-[b]-[c] sub-structure. While I had placed my target for the [a] wave on our chart even before we bottomed, the market rallied 50 points higher than my ideal target region for this initial rally off the lows. But, as I also noted during the rally, the higher this [a] wave takes us, the higher we will likely rally into our upper target region for the b-wave.

At this point, it seems likely that the market has topped in the [a] wave, and we are now within the throes of the [b] wave pullback. And I generally expect that [b] wave to subdivide as I have outlined on the attached five-minute chart.

The question with which we will grapple in the coming months is how high this b-wave rally will travel. The answer will depend on two things. First, we need to confirm where the bottom of the [b] wave pullback will form. My minimum target for that is in the 2,600 region at this time, with the potential to drop as deep as the 2,500 region, as you can see based on my target box on the 60-minute chart. And, since the b-wave target often displays a relationship of [a]=[c] within its sub-structure, a [b] wave bottom within 2,500-2,600 points to a target in the 2,900-3,000 region.

Moreover, since the [c] wave is comprised of a standard five-wave Elliott Wave structure, and they tend to target the 2.00 extension of waves 1 and 2 within that five-wave structure, we will be looking for a target that provides confluence between the extensions of waves one and two in the [c] wave, and the relationship between the [a] and [c] waves. So, if the [a]=[c] target coincides with the 2.00 extension of waves one and two of the [c], we have a high probability target for a top to the market in the coming months. But, right now, it is too premature to make such determinations since we have not completed the [b] wave yet.

So as long as the S&P 500 remains below the 2,725 region, I am looking for further downside in the coming week as we form more of the [b] wave pullback structure. Alternatively, if the market is able to rally impulsively through this past week’s high, then it opens the door to the potential that the [b] wave has already been completed and we are already in the [c] wave rally, pointing us directly to the 2,940 region. This I have labeled as the “FOMO count,” presented in purple.

 

 

https://www.marketwa...eory-2019-02-11



#9 dTraderB

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 07:58 PM

chart for above post

 

MW-HD716_avi11_20190211103301_NS.png?uui



#10 dTraderB

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 08:01 PM

Vanguard dramatically cuts its expected rate of return for the stock market over the next decade
  • The stock market won't keep returning the kinds of yearly gains investors have gotten used to, according to Vanguard's Greg Davis.
  • "Our expectations around U.S. equity markets is for about a 5 percent median, annualized return," says the fund group's CIO.

"If we look forward for the next 10 years, our expectations around U.S. equity markets is for about a 5 percent median annualized return," he told CNBC on Monday. "Five years ago, we'd have been somewhere in around 8 percent."

"Our expectations have clearly come down," Davis added. The historical average annualized return for the stock market, accounting for inflation, is about 7 percent.

 

The S&P 500 — which has soared about 15 percent since its Christmas Eve closing low, after three months of turmoil — is at the "high end of fair value," Davis said on "Squawk Box" from the Inside ETFs Conference in Hollywood, Florida.

 

 
 

https://www.cnbc.com...ext-decade.html