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AAII 67% out of the mkt


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#11 da_cheif

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Posted 26 April 2019 - 08:28 PM

Chief,

Bears got to me today finally. Yes, I see the long term is up, but you are probably shorting the small contract on every new swing high. I don't have the capital to buy and hold ES, so I am forced next best and 3-9 months out of the money SPX and leap puts on bear funds. Time is not on my side, but so far I am up about 10 % and looking to 10x at 3300. There are a lot of scalpers out there that do ok long and short, but have no idea what they are doing long term, yes the 2000,2007 and 2018 are keeping them bearish, probably looking at 15k SPX over the next 10 years.

>but you are probably shorting the small contract on every new swing high.<.......oh really?   geeziz in your dreams



#12 CLK

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Posted 29 April 2019 - 12:20 PM

Ok,but you said in the past that's what you do, maybe not now or often.
One day, hopefully soon I make back all the money I lost picking tops. You have the long term figured out, like you said, most don't, just haven't seen enough bull/bear cycles even though the historical charts are right on front of them, I admit I get too bearish in crashes but bull cycle staying long until A/D line starts a divergence.

#13 da_cheif

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Posted 29 April 2019 - 02:35 PM

people who dont understand the language of market.....mostly dont understand a word of russian......yet those than dont understand the russian languare would never in a million years attempt to travel accross russia without a russian guide.....get my drift?

 

wolanchuk.com



#14 CLK

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Posted 29 April 2019 - 04:55 PM

people who dont understand the language of market.....mostly dont understand a word of russian......yet those than dont understand the russian languare would never in a million years attempt to travel accross russia without a russian guide.....get my drift?

 

wolanchuk.com

 

 

Good point.    

 

All I ever hear is this is a bubble, price to GDP at historical highs not seen since year 2000 top, crash imminent, can't go up much more,

2300 just around the corner after a nominal new high, on and on and all kinds of economic reasons stocks are overpriced.

 

The market is flat for the last two years, need to go on up to 3500 this year to make long term gains more reasonable.