8 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

Well, POWELL screwed up again: if he had not raised rates, GDP Q1 would have been 4% or higher

Great GDP number, no matter which way you look at it. 
Slow down? 

 

Stocks are flat as some weak earnings trump a better-than-expected GDP report

“The economic expansion will set new records for longevity in July and it looks like there is no stopping this economy,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG. “We had all but given up on the first quarter with the Federal government shutdown ending January 25, frigid winter weather conditions shutting down manufacturing production, and the fears of a world growth slowdown.”

“So far the fears are unfounded,” Rupkey said.

https://www.cnbc.com...all-street.html


 

[dTraderB]

Looking forward to at least two more 30-point plus NQ trades for the rest of the day. 

 

Lots of talk about volatility implosion and the coming explosive move up; I prefer VIX below 10 before predicting that.... it can happen now but so far it has been steadily down and not a rapid plunge signifying capitulation of VIX longs.

 

https://thereformedb...unami-imminent/

[dTraderB]

Another forecast: Not From Me (aka NFM, for future reference)

 

"Regardless of how, the gap has been closed, and the S&P 500 has now one less reason to continue higher without interruption (chart gaps act as magnets).

 

I wouldn’t be surprised to the see the S&P 500 grind a little higher, but then we should see whether the remainder of my S&P 500 projection - which is quite outrageous - will also prove correct.

 

Based on investor sentiment, a nasty decline is possible and becoming more likely, but based on liquidity any drop is probably only temporary. According to Elliott Wave Theory, an upcoming drop (once smaller waves 4 and 5 are complete) could be a steep wave C or wave 2, but as long as the S&P stays above 2,900, it can grind higher."

 https://www.ispyetf.com 

[dTraderB]

Sentiment is second to price action in trading, which is why I am not taking this NQ short unless it breaks below the previous swing high on the 5m chart.

 

NFM:  Not From Me

 

"Participation problems

The most important stock index in the world hit a new high on Tuesday, but relatively few of its stocks went along for the ride. A curiously low number of stocks in the index hit a 52-week high along with the index, and relatively few of them managed to even climb above their short-, medium-, and long-term moving averages.

That’s not a sell signal by any means, but future returns were much better after new highs with better participation, with future returns doubling - or more - those times when participation was less impressive like it is now."

https://www.sentimen...ipation-problem

[dTraderB]

Tim not super bullish

Of course< I was right about not taking that NQ short; could get an explosive blowout rally, but it's now late in the 9th inning for this great move up, no extra innings!

 

NFM - not from me

 

"Not expecting a runaway market here. SPX tested last September high today. Above is the “Total Put/Call Ratio” (CPC), which closed today at .79. We have marked the previous times when CPC reached .79 with red vertical lines. In all cases, the market either declined or flipped sideways. April is usually an up month in pre-election years, so the market may back and fill into next week. When the uptrend does top out, the first area of support comes in the gap level between March and April near the 2850 range. If the April gap is tested on higher volume, the market may head to the next support, the 2800 level, which marks the November-December 2018 highs."

https://stockcharts....il-23-2019.html

[dTraderB]

Helene Meisler‏ @hmeisler

FollowFollow @hmeisler

More

Helene Meisler Retweeted CNBC Now

LOL. He doesn't disappoint.

Helene Meisler added,

CNBC NowVerified account @CNBCnow

JUST IN: White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow says Fed should still cut rates despite 3.2% GDP growth https://cnb.cx/2GBxWye 

Show this thread

6:53 AM - 26 Apr 2019

 

[dTraderB]

Funny Friday!

Bullish giddiness leads to fun:

TESLA's MUSK replies to CRAMER:

 

lon Musk‏Verified account @elonmusk

FollowFollow @elonmusk

More

Replying to @TheStreet @jimcramer @realmoney

Cramer is a simulation. He’s not real.

12:25 AM - 26 Apr 2019

TheStreet‏Verified account @TheStreet 24h24 hours ago

More

Here's why @JimCramer is comparing @ElonMusk to P.T. Barnum.
For more analysis on Tesla $TSLA earnings, head over to @RealMoney: https://buff.ly/2vopGwc 

[dTraderB]

As I wrote earlier this week, I expect at least 2 to 3% rally above the previous historical SPX high. 

 

Still looking for a single-digit VIX. 

 

It is true that more "professionals" are in disbelief at the Goldilocks scenario of more rate cuts with record equity highs ad booming economy but there still isn't a capitulation by bears or a blowout by bulls. Not saying markets can't go down without one or both of those events but I prefer one or both. 

NFM (not from me):

 

Wu-Tang Financial  🥑‏ @Wu_Tang_Finance

FollowFollow @Wu_Tang_Finance

More

IM NOT A CHART TECHNICAL ANALYST BUT I SPOT A WU-TANG FORMATION

12:40 PM - 24 Apr 2019

 

[hhh]

I don't see how the first "bad time to buy" could have been determined until after the fact.