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Posted 28 April 2019 - 11:27 AM
The BIG short: Hedge funds are betting big that market volatility won't return anytime soon. Speculators ramped up their shorts to about 178k VIX net short contracts, biggest such position on record, even bigger than before the XIV crash in Feb2018.
Another bear throws in the towel:
"The Bull Is Back... But Will It Stay?"
https://seekingalpha...back-will-stay?
Member
Posted 28 April 2019 - 11:34 AM
High, but could go up another few % points
Consensus Bulls 65%.
Member
Posted 28 April 2019 - 11:35 AM
NAAIM Exposure in rare air territory
This week’s NAAIM Exposure Index number is:
92.43
Last Quarter Average
74.21
http://www.naaim.org...exposure-index/
Member
Posted 28 April 2019 - 11:37 AM
Flattish
https://www.marketin...lume-oscillator
Still in GREED zone
https://money.cnn.co...fear-and-greed/
Member
Posted 28 April 2019 - 11:39 AM
Different interpretation
As @markets notes, "Hedge Funds Are Shorting the VIX at a Rate Never Seen Before", https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-26/hedge-funds-are-shorting-the-vix-at-a-rate-never-seen-before … by @SarahPonczek. But here's the problem: The implications are unreliable. Sometimes extremes like this mark price tops, sometimes bottoms, or surge higher points.
Member
Posted 28 April 2019 - 11:43 AM
WHY?
The curious case of the missing hedgies https://www.sentimentrader.com//blog/hedge-funds-just-wont-buy/ … via @sentimentrader
https://www.sentimen...-just-wont-buy/
Member
Posted 28 April 2019 - 11:48 AM
Want to see a few more headlines like this one....
S&P 500 Weekly Update: The Most Hated Bull Market Continues With New Highs
https://seekingalpha...inues-new-highs
Member
Posted 28 April 2019 - 11:50 AM
Rather lonely in this corner:
"The final phase of a bull cycle is the most deceiving. It is the time when things are at their best, optimism runs wild, equities can do no wrong and any warning signs are dismissed as equity price action valiantly defies the reality that is to come.
It is also a time when complacency makes a comeback as big rallies emerge following initial larger corrections. 2018 was a year of big corrections. 10% in February, 20% in Q4. Now a 25% rally. Not signs of a stable bull market. It is precisely the aggressive counter rallies near the end of cycles that can be the most awe-inspiring and reason defying, yet they can also be the most dangerous while being the best opportunities to sell at the same time.
Let’s get real: The liquidity machine can hide reality only for so long and that is: Things keep slowing down. Cycles don’t turn on a dime, they take time and that is what we are seeing unfold and the signs are plentiful. From Japanese industrial production going negative the past 3 months to home sales in the Hamptons slowing to the slowest level in 7 years. I’m using these couple rather random examples to illustrate a point: The slowdown is as broad as it global:"
https://northmantrad...04/28/get-real/
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Member
Posted 28 April 2019 - 11:55 AM
I think the FED announcement will be a non-event, but you never know:
From Carl:
Since the market gapped up on the first of April, it has been quietly moving higher, making marginal new, all-time highs. Volume has been a bit thin, particularly for SPY. I think that thin volume is a reflection of the low volatility, and of investors happy to sit quietly, not seeing any need to change their position. What's causing this? The only thing I can see is Easter week and the Fed meeting next week. The Fed announcement will be on Wednesday.
