10 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

Reminds me of the dot com bubble when IPOs doubled on opening day but it still is not as frothy as that era and we may never get a repeat of that tech boom and bubble that imploded with disastrous effects for many.

But, when fake meat is worth more than the real stuff, then one must be alert.

 

This is from BARRON'S:

"Today, Beyond Meat, the maker of plant-based burgers, soared 163% on its first day of trading. That gives the company a market value of more than $4 billion. 

For those who lived through the dot-com bubble, a first-day doubling could still feel common for a newly issued stock. There were 117 IPOs that doubled on their first day of trading in 1999 and another 77 in 2000, according to IPO expert Jay Ritter. But since the Internet crash, the IPO double has actually become a rare event. In fact, there have been just 24 of them since 2000. Beyond Meat makes it 25.

It's too soon to say what Beyond Meat's first-day return means for the broader market, but the frothy response is worth watching, especially with Uber Technologies and Slack about to stage their own public debuts. 

Beyond Meat would seem to be an odd candidate for a huge IPO pop. After all, there's not much tech inside the company's pea-based meat. And the business remains rather niche. Beyond Meat had sales of $88 million last year, losing $30 million in the process. But Barron's Al Rootnotes that its losses are shrinking as the company's sales are exploding. They were up 170% in 2018. Investors are excited about the growth and Beyond Meat's ability to feed a growing demand for non-meat alternatives.   

This afternoon, Al went beyond the company's financials, too. His story immediately goes in my collection of favorite Barron's headlines: "Beyond Meat Is Now Worth More Than All the Peas in America."..."

 

 

 

[dTraderB]

Cracked Market thinks it's another dip to be bought:

 

"...While this pullback is small, 2019 has been a year of small pullbacks. The thing about trends is they are far more likely to continue than reverse. (they continue countless times, but reverse only once) As long as we keep holding above 2,900 support, I will keep giving the benefit of doubt to this rally. But if prices tumble under 2,900 Friday and finish near the day’s lows, that is a very bearish development and it means further selling is ahead of us.....I’d love to see this dip go further because that creates even more profit opportunity for swing-trade. Unfortunately, I don’t think I’ll be that lucky and this will bounce quickly like every other dip this year."

https://cracked.mark...ers-be-worried/

[dTraderB]

My views on the market closely match this guy, since last year, but he was bullish until late April while I went bearish in early April.

This is from his free newsletter:

 

Although at time of writing, the S&P 500 is down only 1.65% from its all-time high, the last 2 days erased 12 days worth of gains. 

 

      This means that either my projection shown here is playing out already, or it will be ripe after a down/up sequence to about 3,000.This projection is 1 of 4 possible scenarios (based on my multi-indicator forecasting approach), but 3 of those 4 scenarios project a S&P 500 drop of about 300 points over the summer. 

 

      Summary: The S&P 500 may still reach 3,000 (and aggressive investors wanting to milk the last rally leg are getting close to a 'last leg buying opportunity'), but the odds of a nasty summer correction are 75%. Any such correction, however, should only be temporary and lead to new bull market highs. Why I am longer-term bullish isdiscussed here. Fasten your seatbelt, it could be a bumpy ride!

https://www.ispyetf.com/index.htm

[dTraderB]

Maybe we get the BUFFET rally? 

He now says he has been buying AMAZON for some time now and FUTURES popped a point or two but some on twitter are excited and think this will be a nother catalyst for the rally to resume tomorrow.

 

Berkshire Hathaway has been buying shares of Amazon, Warren Buffett says

“One of the fellows in the office that manage money ... bought some Amazon so it will show up in the 13F” later this month, Warren Buffett told CNBC Thursday

 

“Yeah, I’ve been a fan, and I’ve been an idiot for not buying” Amazon shares, Buffett said. “But I want you to know it’s no personality changes taking place.”

https://www.cnbc.com...en-buffett.html

Edited by dTraderB, 02 May 2019 - 07:43 PM.

[dTraderB]

Did not catch this; Sentiment Trader did, thanks.

 

 

No oomph in Oscillator

The McClellan Oscillator hasn’t been able to get above zero even as the S&P 500 and other indexes tick to new highs on multiple days.

Over the past 57 years, this has been a negative sign of underlying weakness for stocks, though the sample is small, and the most recent signal was a failure.

https://www.sentimen...s-should-bounce

[dTraderB]

More great stuff from Sentiment Trader:

 

Nearing a record

Dumb Money Confidence moved up to 85% on Tuesday, nearing the record of 88%. According to the Backtest Engine, there have been 19 days with a reading as high as it is now, with only 6 of them leading to a gain in the S&P 500 over the next two weeks. Some higher-risk indexes like the Russell 2000 and emerging markets often fared worse. You can test them by changing the Index in the first box of the Backtest Engine.

Rolling over

The McClellan Summation Index for the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite have dropped below +500 after recently hitting +1,000. Both indexes have struggled to hold any gains over the next 1-3 months after similar conditions in the past 17 years.

https://www.sentimen...s-should-bounce

[dTraderB]

SPRING CRASH? 

I am looking for at least 10% down from record highs but no where near 20% during the next month or two... and possibly later in the year if earnings fall off the cliff in Q2 and beyond

 

 

A Real Chance Of A Spring Crash

May 2, 2019 11:45 AM ET 

 

Michael A. Gayed, CFA

Summary

The cyclical rally takes a bit of a break over the past week as traders make a minor rotation into more defensive areas of the market.

A healthy economy tends to result in increased optimism in the industrial sector but the group has been struggling to buy into this economy.

Weakness in lumber prices is perhaps the biggest red flag we’re seeing in the economy right now and should be considered a warning for potential Spring Crash.

https://seekingalpha...ce-spring-crash

[dTraderB]

Great rally off SPX 2900

 

About to enter the TOPPING zone from SPX 2950 to 2970

 

 

 

 

 

[12SPX]

I'm debating if we hold at the highs here right now going into the close.

[12SPX]

Anyone have any opinions on the Fed actually lowering rates now, find that just bizarre considering the strength being shown in the economy, wouldn't they want some leeway.