47 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

Double Top In Progress

Carl Swenlin |  May 10, 2019 at 06:39 PM

 

https://stockcharts....n-progress.html

 

A few weeks ago, when the market began challenging the 2018 price highs, I pointed out that there was a potential for a double top. Since then, a second top has clearly formed, and the potential for more downside must be considered. The double top confirmation line is drawn across the low between the two tops, about -20% below the recent highs. If the confirmation line is violated, the double top pattern will 'execute' and infer another leg down of equal or greater magnitude, but that is way too far in the future to think about now. The potential for a continued decline from current levels is of more immediate interest.

Looking at the other broad market indexes, we see a similar setup.

The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds.

[dTraderB]

A bull market needs fuel to continue....NEW MONEY 

 

The Fed’s numbers indicate the S&P 500 may be topping

There’s less cash available to push the market much higher

 

https://www.marketwa...ping-2019-05-10

[dTraderB]

Just to keep everyone honest on this TRADE WAR:

- there was NO deal

- US raised tariffs

- there is no meeting scheduled

- China threatened retaliation so this is the major next move 

- and, most important, the US elections clock is ticking down to the real start of silly season while China has none of that and has all the time in the world:

https://thehill.com/...sident-for-life

 

Why are all of the above interpreted as bullish? 

 

Friday's relief rally originate from the blase overnight reaction to the US raising tariffs; yawn, back to bed, next morning Europe & Asia were green, US went down then joined the relief rally party.

 

That WAS then, the future is now over the weekend into Monday; another relief rally if no Chinese tariffs or peace breaks out between US & China on the trade front; another rally if meeting is scheduled; DOWN if China raises tariffs and more war talk from either side. 

 

https://www.marketwa...deal-2019-05-10

[dTraderB]

Three trade deal outcomes and what they could mean for the S&P 500: Bank of America

The bank’s strategist offer three trade-deal outcomes and what they could mean for the S&P 500: SPX, +0.37%

• Deal gets done — the S&P 500 rallies toward 3,000, with transportation stocks, semiconductor stocks, the German DAX, Korea’s KOSPI index and global banks among those poised to benefit most.
• Postponed deal—S&P 500 falls to 2,775, then rallies. Under this scenario, strategists advise selling exposure to a gauge of stock market volatility—the Cboe Volatility Index
• No deal—the Fed would be forced to cut interest rates (on the idea that a trade war would cause economic and market chaos) the S&P 500 falls to under 2,600, investors pull out of perceived riskier assets such as tech stocks, emerging-market debt and investment-grade corporate bonds

Read: Why stock-market investors fear another ‘VIX-driven air pocket’ as volatility spikes

B. of A. also is keeping a keen eye on Korea’s main stock index SEU, +0.29%  and say if it falls below December lows, it would “lead to contagion across high beta cyclical assets.” (See chart below).

https://www.marketwa...k-of-2019-05-10

[dTraderB]

This is what I alluded in a post above:

 

"It’s time for markets to end their illusions about a US-China trade deal

After talks ended on Friday without progress, Hu brought down the curtain on the week: “Based on what I know, Chinese side insists on a few core points: US side should remove all additional tariffs, amount of purchase the US requests should be in line with reality; the text of the agreement must respect sovereignty and dignity.”

https://www.cnbc.com...trade-deal.html

Edited by dTraderB, 11 May 2019 - 09:37 AM.

[dTraderB]

Not a fan of GAPS but many are:

 

Helene Meisler‏ @hmeisler

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SPX gap filled

7:27 AM - 11 May 2019

Will it hold or break support:

Helene Meisler‏ @hmeisler

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TRAN

7:17 AM - 11 May 2019

 

 

 

[dTraderB]

Breaking down in progress or already broken support; honestly, market could ignore any chart and do anything it wants.... but usually the probability is higher than 50/50 it will behave in sync with SOME charts, not all:

 

Helene Meisler‏ @hmeisler

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QQQ

2:09 PM - 10 May 2019

Naz

7:09 AM - 11 May 2019

DJIA

6:54 AM - 11 May 2019

Higher low for breadth this past week while SPX made a lower low

6:39 AM - 11 May 2019

[dTraderB]

Anyone follows COPPOCK CURVE??

 

Walter Murphy‏ @waltergmurphy

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The weekly Coppock Curve has a bearish bias for every one of the SP500's 11 economic sectors.

 

while Tom thinks it is a bottom;

 

Tom McClellan‏ @McClellanOsc

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A chart from my Daily Edition on Thursday, the 10-day Open Arms Index is down to an oversold level, which is an indication of a bottom for prices.

3:52 PM - 10 May 2019

[dTraderB]

SentimenTrader‏Verified account @sentimentrader

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A little over a month ago, pre-market futures traders were pumping up the market by an average of 0.4%. Now they're knocking it down by more than 0.8% per day, more early-morning jitters than during the December mini-panic.

5:54 AM - 10 May 2019

[dTraderB]

Below zero:

https://www.marketin...llan-oscillator

 

In FEAR zone but not extreme fear, as yet:

https://money.cnn.co...fear-and-greed/