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Market must rally now or SPX 2650 next major low


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 15 May 2019 - 07:05 AM

Good rally from extreme negative sentiment levels but it did not close at the highs and seem to find few believers that it can be sustained. 

But, the great bull market soared and prospered on a wall of worry and doubt so let's see if this is a real rally or merely a relief bounce.

 

Will the dip buyers continue to add more money or will the bears launch another attack?

 

SPX must regain that 50 ma level and push up or else the next major low objective of SPX 2650 will be achieved by end of May. 

 

I think there will be frenetic and furious attempts by the powers to keep this rally going and they may succeed in taking it back to SPX 2900 but..... there will be lower lows during the nextt 2 to 3 months. 

 

More Chinese veiled threats:

 

Hu Xijin 胡锡进 @HuXijin_GT
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The US side released some signals to ease the situation these days. It dare not play rough to the end. What it's doing is threatening China while propping up US stock markets, keeping up the hope there will be a deal finally. The Chinese have seen this through.

10:30 PM - 14 May 2019

 

 



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 15 May 2019 - 07:12 AM

zerohedge @zerohedge
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Markets Slide Despite Stimulus Hopes After Dire Chinese Data; Yields Plunge

The global equity bounce following what many misinterpreted as softer rhetoric by President Donald Trump on the trade dispute with China, fizzled on Wednesday despite dismal Chinese data, while fresh Italian debt woes kept BTFDers on the sidelines.

https://www.zerohedg...a-yields-plunge



#3 dTraderB

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Posted 15 May 2019 - 07:15 AM

Helene Meisler @hmeisler
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Investors Intelligence bulls down to 51.4%, lowest since mid February.

Naz 5 straight days with more new lows than highs. Most days since December

 



#4 dTraderB

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Posted 15 May 2019 - 07:17 AM

Douglas KassVerified account @DougKass
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Ignore the message of the bond market at your own risk. The ten year US note is down by four bps this morning. Yielding 2.37% Investors should be fearful of rising evidence of slowing global economic growth (likely to be exacerbated by an extended trade war with China).

5:14 AM - 15 May 2019
* (SPY) short - with a $283.50 trigger. * (QQQ) short - with a $180.50 trigger. P.S. These short sell stops were triggered yesterday. @jimcramer @tomkeene @SquawkCNBC
2:48 AM - 15 May 2019


#5 dTraderB

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Posted 15 May 2019 - 07:20 AM

I think the miss on this specific China data item is more worrying for the bulls than anything else

 

Daniel LacalleVerified account @dlacalle_IA
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Daniel Lacalle Retweeted Real Vision Research

China Industrial Production a big miss after march beat. +5.4% prior +8.5%

Real Vision Research @RVAnalysis
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China Industrial Production a big miss after march beat. +5.4% prior +8.5% A notable drop in Cement & manufacturing and cement. As a worlds largest cement user the % drop has a meaningful impact of global output. Steel output rose sharply +12.7% #ThinkTank



#6 dTraderB

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Posted 15 May 2019 - 07:22 AM

but bullish news from Germany:

 

Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner
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Return of the living dead: #Germany’s GDP grew 0.4% in Q1 in line w/ Eurozone’s, first expansion since Q2 2018. Strong growth suggests that any panic about the state of German economy was overdone. But any complacency misplaced! https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article193521209/BIP-Zahlen-their-kranke-Mann-Deutschland-lebt-noch.html?wtmc=socialmedia.twitter.shared.web  via @welt

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1:06 AM - 15 May 2019
 

Trade war may spur #China to sell Treasuries as Yuan tumbles. Beijing could tap reserves to buoy yuan, avert capital flight. Treasury yields remain low as investors seek haven from tumult. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-14/trade-war-may-yet-spur-china-to-sell-treasuries-as-yuan-sinks 

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9:58 PM - 14 May 2019

 

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Mad world: German 10y yields drop to -0.08% after decent Q1 growth numbers.

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11:56 PM - 14 May 2019


#7 dTraderB

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Posted 15 May 2019 - 09:25 AM

TRUMP PUT: delay auto tariffs by 6 months, good for at least 15 SPX points, so far

 

Pavlovian Trade War tactics by Europe, China et al: exert pain, get trade war concession

 

 

ALWAYS, always, be careful of getting bearishly or bullishly complacent



#8 dTraderB

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Posted 15 May 2019 - 09:47 AM

ha ha

 

Douglas KassVerified account @DougKass
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So UBS has two strategists - what on the investment side and one on the banking side. One has S&P target of 2550, the other at 2950! So UBS, heads you win, tails you win? @carlquintanilla @zerohedge Such B.S. Same old Wall Street I suppose. @sareisen

7:08 AM - 15 May 2019

 



#9 dTraderB

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Posted 15 May 2019 - 09:47 AM

Holding my nose and taking NQ LONG trades..... 



#10 dTraderB

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Posted 15 May 2019 - 11:56 AM

Following LESS TA or FA or economic news etc, but far more political stuff because that is moving the markets, at least for now.

The Trash talk continues as the PHONY TRADE WAR transforms into a real war.

 

The rhetoric from China has turned starkly, aggressively nationalist. The Global Times is calling for a “People’s War”, a 1930’s Mao reference to repelling Japanese imperialism; “trade war” now fills Chinese media, having been largely absent for months; and Tuesday’s People’s Daily mouthpiece posted an image of the Chinese flag with “Talk – fine! Fight – we’ll be there! Bully us – delusion!” superimposed on it. US President Trump is also not backing down in a further set of trade-related tweets, again stating tariff revenues will support ‘patriot’ farmers and adding: “China will be pumping money into their system and probably reducing interest rates, as always, in order to make up for the business they are, and will be, losing. If the Federal Reserve ever did a “match,” it would be game over, we win! In any event, China wants a deal!”

 

https://www.zerohedg...ehind-trade-war