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Trapped! Compressing.....and breakout - UP or DOWN? (down!)


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 22 May 2019 - 06:36 AM

Not complaining about the great daytrading opportunities BUT we got to get out of this range,

 

Will happens oon as the compression continues and pressure builds. 

 

Unless there is a Trade Breakthrough or another episode of the FED PUT or TRUMP PUT, the higher probability is down.

 

But we could be trading SPX 2800 to 2900 for days, and weeks, and ....forever!

 

ONLY daytrading NQ yesterday. 

Was tempted with huge moves in GBP but learned my lesson decades ago: don't trade a wild market unless you can focus on it. Every second counts so you cannot trade more than 2 instruments in markets making big moves with big ranges.

 

Here is our friend from cracked sub:

 

Screen-Shot-2019-05-21-at-6.59.47-PM.pngFree After-Hours Update:

The S&P 500 is recovering from this month’s trade war swoon. Prices bounced off 2,800 support last week and are attempting to retake the 50dma.

As bearish as the headlines appeared, the market has been holding up remarkably well. Crashes from unsustainable levels are breathtakingly quick. This is the third week since Trump escalated the trade war and so far prices are only down a couple of percent. If this market was fragile and vulnerable to a collapse, we would have tumbled a lot further by now.

Quite simply, a market that refuses to go down will eventually go up. As long as we continue holding 2,800 support, the situation is constructive. Eventually headlines will let up and at this point, the only thing we need to rally back to the highs is less bad news.

That said, Memorial Day is just around the corner and we are quickly approaching the summer trading season. Big money managers are heading off to their cottages and that means less buying.

A market that refuses to go down combined with lethargic summer demand is the perfect recipe for a trading range. 2,800 support is the lower bounds and last month’s highs near 2,950 is the upper edge. Until further notice, a move to the lower end of this range should be bought and a rally to the upper end should be sold.

Most people know markets trade sideways more than they go up or down, yet every time they approach the lower end of a range, people cannot help but be overcome by feelings of doom and gloom. The same happens at the upper end, except this time people are counting all the money they will make as prices keep racing ahead. Unfortunately, these reactions end in people buying the highs and selling the lows.

It’s been a great year and it only makes sense prices will stagnate for a while as we consolidate recent gains. Stick with your favorite long-term investments. But over the next few months, the best money will be made swing trading a rangebound market. Currently, we are on the upswing following last week’s bounce off support and the next move is still higher. But rather than get greedy when we return to the highs, takes some profits and get ready to do it again.

https://cracked.mark...-trading-range/



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 22 May 2019 - 06:38 AM

...and another good post from GMM:

S&P Levels

The S&P is up over 14 percent YTD, just 3.13 percent from its all-time high, and just 5.6 percent from our peak S&P target, not surprising after a down year.

Inertia and hopes of a ceasefire on China trade could get it there but we will continue to sell.

If Chimerica has been a major factor driving global growth, corporate margins and profits for the past 20 years, how is its unwind going to be positive for stocks?

Buybacks?  Where is the cash flow going to come from?

A new round of QE?  Negative interest rates?   Hope not.

The Fed will try and it may succeed in keeping asset markets afloat for a short period but that well is running dry.   We suspect it will eventually destabilize money demand and the world will be in a world of hurt.  See our friend, Sebastian Edwards latest, Modern Monetary Disasters.

Key Levels

Taking out 2877 to the upside would be huge and get the S&P back above the 50 percent Fibo retracement level and the 50-day moving average.  To the downside, this week’s low at 2831 needs to hold or the risk of a quick trip to the 200-day at 2777 increases markedly.

We suspect Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride is just beginning.

Stay alert, stay tuned.

 

 

impeachment-market-2.png?w=435&h=798

https://global-macro.../key-sp-levels/



#3 redfoliage2

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Posted 22 May 2019 - 06:56 AM

Your range will be broken downward as the market is at an IT top and turning ............

Edited by redfoliage2, 22 May 2019 - 06:57 AM.


#4 dTraderB

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Posted 22 May 2019 - 07:30 AM

Put/Call ratio for Equities: 57%, lowest since 5/3. Friday was 81%

 

Put/Call ratio for the VIX 120%

 

Best breadth day for NYSE since March 11th. Wow.



#5 dTraderB

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Posted 22 May 2019 - 07:30 AM

Walter Deemer @WalterDeemer
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Today was an 82% upside day. Lowry's considers back-to-back 80% upside days equivalent to a 90% upside day. Not easy to do, but at least the possibility exists tomorrow.

4:47 PM - 21 May 2019


#6 dTraderB

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Posted 22 May 2019 - 07:32 AM

Will buy some of this:

 

Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner
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Deutsche Bank shares drop to fresh multi-decade low as embattled Deutsche Chairman Achleitner skipped shareholder meeting of Daimler, where he’s on the board of directors, a day before he is scheduled to face angry investors at his own company, Deutsche Bank.

D7KtOT0XsAAegBH.png
4:17 AM - 22 May 2019


#7 dTraderB

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Posted 22 May 2019 - 07:33 AM

Got to watch Europe,.... could be the canary in the coalmine

 

Turkey, italy.... Britain no longer Great and falling fast with the amazing probability of Boris Johnson PM!

 

....

Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner
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Erdogan’s #Turkey paying price for burning bridges w/ markets. Foreign investors have withdrawn $2.5bn from Turkey cap mkts, taking this year’s exodus to $1.8bn, most since 2015. Dollarization of country continues despite higher interest on lira deposits. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-21/turkey-burns-bridges-with-markets-as-costs-of-lira-defense-mount 

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10:47 PM - 21 May 2019


#8 dTraderB

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Posted 22 May 2019 - 08:50 AM

I would like to add a few QQQ puts today or rest of week... just trying to raise the average entry price a bit higher & prepare for another whoosh down during the next 2 weeks

 

zerohedge @zerohedge
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Lira Tumbles, Turkish Stocks Enter Bear Market After US Issues Ultimatum; Russia Furious



#9 dTraderB

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Posted 22 May 2019 - 08:51 AM

Break below $6 and I will scoop up at least 1000

 

zerohedge @zerohedge
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Nenner: If Deutsche Breaks $6.40 "The World Is In Trouble"



#10 dTraderB

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Posted 22 May 2019 - 08:52 AM

Meanwhile, more pessimistic forecasts... not necessarily bearish for the next few days 

 

zerohedge @zerohedge
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"Our old forecasts imply an unrealistically optimistic backdrop for remainder of 2019, we cut our forecasts across the board" - BofA

6:19 AM - 22 May 2019