1010 replies to this topic

[Russ]

 

 

seems ptretty clear to me that we have ended the weekly cycle in gold that took us p so well,

 need to set back an watch what unfolds...

 

i think Leebs 1360 target is sound enough...only rpoblem i have is why make it so easy for others to get on board?

 

Either we go MUCH lower or we dont get there

1362 was Armstrong's key breakout number, so a test of that would be pretty amazing and a great buying opportunity, early Nov should be the time to buy as I said.

 

or Friday was the low? would not surprise me at all

 

Senor

 

Why do you think the bottom could be now?  Do you have a chart you can show?  Russ

[jabat]

Daily DSI number can be obtained from this blog

http://tag618.com/blog

[senorBS]

 

 

 

seems ptretty clear to me that we have ended the weekly cycle in gold that took us p so well,

 need to set back an watch what unfolds...

 

i think Leebs 1360 target is sound enough...only rpoblem i have is why make it so easy for others to get on board?

 

Either we go MUCH lower or we dont get there

1362 was Armstrong's key breakout number, so a test of that would be pretty amazing and a great buying opportunity, early Nov should be the time to buy as I said.

 

or Friday was the low? would not surprise me at all

 

Senor

 

Why do you think the bottom could be now?  Do you have a chart you can show?  Russ

 

SILJ with what I count as 5 up from late May major low to early Sep high has a 38% retrace at 9.73 - Fridays low was 9.78, drop from high is 3 step patter into Fridays low, of course that decline could extend, but if we turn up sharply Monday a key low cold be in place.

 

SLV and Silver actually Friday reached a little bit more than 38% retracement levels of what I count as complete large wave 3's from the late May low and their decline basis daily charts could be a clear 3 step ABC decline into Fridays lows.

 

GDX 38% retracement of wave 3 from May low at 20.14 is at 26.82 - Fridays low was 26.60 and here again decline from highs

would be a abc IF we start rallying on Monday - similar patterns/potential in other indices/ETFs.

 

 

IMO a very KEY factor from the Saudi mess and likely much higher oil prices is a FURTHER RISK toward recession/slow growth worldwide, the only counter to that is lower rates/more stimulus - IMO that is simply bullish for the metals sector. Then there is now the added instability in the Middle East and the realization of a new era when drones show how vulnerable targets like these are. A renewed "oil risk premium" is now likely and the instability will likely also be reflected in a gold/silver move higher. So both wave and Fibonacci retracement wise I think there is a good case for a key low last Friday "if" the markets reaction to the Saudi oil strike plays out as I think it has a good chance to. Let me put it this way - given what has transpired would you rather be long or short the metals going into Monday?

 

Senor

Edited by senorBS, 15 September 2019 - 08:49 AM.

[jabat]

Eric Hadik interview

https://www.howestre...k-in-money-200/

[Smithy]

Jabat, thanks for the Hadik. Any chance when you do this you could post the upshot of his view on gold?

It is painful to listen to him drone on and on.

[dharma]

the bull wants to take as few riders as possible

the fact of the matter is gold broke out of a 6 yr base , making new 6yr highs.  surprises in a bull market are to the upside.  the world is becoming smaller and less stable.  many people will miss the bull run , its the design of the markets.  this attack on saudi oil will raise many questions  iran is viewed as a destabilizing factor in the region. will they be blamed?? will it bolster someones chances for election/relection?

if you put up a chart of oil in gold in the 70s they match as a hand to a glove. oil is essential for commodities. all the big equipment run on oil  the cbs want more inflation , they are going to get it  be real careful what you wish for

there are very few really good traders,  the big scores of  money that i have made in the 40 yrs of doing this comes from riding,not trading. 

the correction crowd will now awaken to either B or an impulse  they will either chase or miss whatever this next leg brings

its the nature of the beast oh and the fed this week , if stocks weaken , the fed will be more aggressive.

dharma

november is a long ways away.  yes there could be a low but what will that low price be.?????1700??   even the best technicians get it wrong from time to time

ps. i can tell y:all from experience the parabolic is very difficult to ride.   getting off too early you leave a ton on the table.  plus the action is so fast it plays on your nerves.   this will be my last aggressive play.. folks we are only in the 2nd or 3rd inning.

[opinionated]

Imo Gold rally's this week back to the top, or slightly lower high. ST/LT cycles support that thought.  

 

I entered a GIFT of a trade last thurday,  Take a look at the GOLD 18c 30 days out with all the panic Thursday/Friday it held very well. Had two upgrades earlier in the week as well.  IF gold turns here or in a few days this stock will rocket to 19.50/20.00 

 

On the brief pop in Gold Thursday morning to 1530's it ran to 18.30 in the first minutes.  

 

Just a shared opinion

 

But I am (Heavy) loaded on this position.

 

I entered at .44 Thursday and it closed Friday at .44 after the slide.

 

Do your Own DD but if you believe gold rally's this week this is a hidden Gem  

 

I fully expect to target out @ 1.50 by Wends.

 

Now I hope I did not Jinx myself by sharing these thoughts!!

[dougie]

Opinionated: are you still long those calls , (as syou say you closed them out)?

[Russ]

 

 

 

 

seems ptretty clear to me that we have ended the weekly cycle in gold that took us p so well,

 need to set back an watch what unfolds...

 

i think Leebs 1360 target is sound enough...only rpoblem i have is why make it so easy for others to get on board?

 

Either we go MUCH lower or we dont get there

1362 was Armstrong's key breakout number, so a test of that would be pretty amazing and a great buying opportunity, early Nov should be the time to buy as I said.

 

or Friday was the low? would not surprise me at all

 

Senor

 

Why do you think the bottom could be now?  Do you have a chart you can show?  Russ

 

SILJ with what I count as 5 up from late May major low to early Sep high has a 38% retrace at 9.73 - Fridays low was 9.78, drop from high is 3 step patter into Fridays low, of course that decline could extend, but if we turn up sharply Monday a key low cold be in place.

 

SLV and Silver actually Friday reached a little bit more than 38% retracement levels of what I count as complete large wave 3's from the late May low and their decline basis daily charts could be a clear 3 step ABC decline into Fridays lows.

 

GDX 38% retracement of wave 3 from May low at 20.14 is at 26.82 - Fridays low was 26.60 and here again decline from highs

would be a abc IF we start rallying on Monday - similar patterns/potential in other indices/ETFs.

 

 

IMO a very KEY factor from the Saudi mess and likely much higher oil prices is a FURTHER RISK toward recession/slow growth worldwide, the only counter to that is lower rates/more stimulus - IMO that is simply bullish for the metals sector. Then there is now the added instability in the Middle East and the realization of a new era when drones show how vulnerable targets like these are. A renewed "oil risk premium" is now likely and the instability will likely also be reflected in a gold/silver move higher. So both wave and Fibonacci retracement wise I think there is a good case for a key low last Friday "if" the markets reaction to the Saudi oil strike plays out as I think it has a good chance to. Let me put it this way - given what has transpired would you rather be long or short the metals going into Monday?

 

Senor

 

/Some good points Senor,  I am neither long or short now, just sitting on cash, going to be interesting to see what happens Sunday night/Monday morning.

[gannman]

the first step for gld is to take out 143.2 if it can do that then 148

 

148 says a new impulse has begun obviously but sometimes it 

 

is good to state the obvious 

Edited by gannman, 15 September 2019 - 06:08 PM.