26 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

I could not help but trade after-hours AFTER the news broke about the failure of the Mexico Tariff talks since it was almost sure the markets will reverse from the impulsive move down. And, it did, and regained all the decline.

 

This is another confirmation of the immense power of the FED plus TRUMP PUTs that can hold this market up and continue this rally to new highs and beyond....will you SHORT this market as long as those two bullish forces exist? 

 

You know the FED will cut rates - anytime, they have the power to do that, they have told the markets they will do that when they feel it is necessary and they are free to do so. TRUMP can tweet anything that is bullish and the market will shot up!  e.g. the President can say he is giving the Mexicans a month's postponement of the tariffs and talks will resume next week. Or, the President can tweet he will be speaking with his Chinese counterpart and market will rally.... that's the power of the PUTs combine. 

 

I will buy any decline UNLESS there is a major geopolitical event or really bad news on the economic front. 

 

Next resistance is the 50ma; immediate resistance is the 20ma which where the SPX closed today. 

 

Unless there is a serious global political or economic event or any major global event, then SPX can take out the previous record high and move above it.

 

All that above is the OBVIOUS and we all know markets are not that easy or else we will all be billionaires. 

 

So, I am bullish but alert and ready to close positions and reverse.

20ma yellow-ish

50ma  black

200ma blue

 

VIX is the grey line 

 

 

[dTraderB]

Looking at that chart again: if the market takes out the 50 ma then there is minor resistance at SPX 2900 and then it's clear sailing to the old high and beyond

 

However, failure to do so could form another IT top.

Edited by dTraderB, 05 June 2019 - 07:55 PM.

[dTraderB]

Futures still rallying....

[fib_1618]

Though appreciative of your "around the horn" posts, I believe you are putting way to much emphasis on things that you can't control.

 

Better to allow money flow (and other such analytic variables) to be your guide and leave the fundamental suppositions and innuendos for others to ponder as it tends to distract.

 

Fib

[12SPX]

Though appreciative of your "around the horn" posts, I believe you are putting way to much emphasis on things that you can't control.

 

Better to allow money flow (and other such analytic variables) to be your guide and leave the fundamental suppositions and innuendos for others to ponder as it tends to distract.

 

Fib

Are you kidding, note the name "traders talk".  If people didn't put up stuff this would be a blank site or it would just be posts saying, buy, sell, boringgggg!!   I think its great love your posts, my favourite morning read of late!!  Keep it up!!!  Being a professional I love reading all the opinions as it never sways my decisions so I'd suggest you just don't read his threads then lol!!!

[fib_1618]

 

Though appreciative of your "around the horn" posts, I believe you are putting way to much emphasis on things that you can't control.

 

Better to allow money flow (and other such analytic variables) to be your guide and leave the fundamental suppositions and innuendos for others to ponder as it tends to distract.

 

Fib

Are you kidding, note the name "traders talk".  If people didn't put up stuff this would be a blank site or it would just be posts saying, buy, sell, boringgggg!!   I think its great love your posts, my favourite morning read of late!!  Keep it up!!!  Being a professional I love reading all the opinions as it never sways my decisions so I'd suggest you just don't read his threads then lol!!!

 

 

1) I never said that the posts should stop...I was just mentioning a consistency where many may be losing out on bottoms and tops all because of the threat of a tweet or whether the FED is asleep behind the wheel or not.

 

2) The best traders pay no mind to such noise...whether they be economic or geopolitical...as all they want to do is follow the lead of larger sums of investment capital.

 

"Money knows what money likes and money likes to make more money".

 

Fib

[12SPX]

Aw k I understand.  Putting my opinion forward I will say that I believe since the 1987 crash the market has become more and more psychological as the years have gone by.  I remember before the 1987 crash you could almost tell how the market would react to trade information because it was all about fundamentals.  It seemed after the crash that even if the information was the same it would react differently every time.  This has built over the years to now being the most extreme ever with a President who loves his tweets and a Fed that will suddenly come out and change their tune in a heartbeat so I totally agree with db that we need to be ready in a flash to adjust to a random tweet or Fed speak that will move the market the opposite way in a nano second with electronic trading how it is today.  Back in those days I day traded with a pencil and graph, giving a person time to adjust.  Its so much easier today its unbelievable but has also taught me to never get married to a trade because a random tweet here or there has the possibility of moving the market, at least for awhile.  Thanks db, I think for the younger traders on here its great for them as they learn the flow of the market.

Edited by 12SPX, 06 June 2019 - 07:58 AM.

[fib_1618]

Putting my opinion forward I will say that I believe since the 1987 crash the market has become more and more psychological as the years have gone by.

 

Partially agree...it's always been about money flow...supply and demand...and the psychological analytics that trigger emotional responses where investment capital is either given or taken away.

 

Fib

[redfoliage2]

Currently I don't see there is a Trump "put".   For now it's Fed "put" vs Trump "call".  I see the Fed put is just a lip service and there will be no rate cut this year................

[dTraderB]

Currently I don't see there is a Trump "put".   For now it's Fed "put" vs Trump "call".  I see the Fed put is just a lip service and there will be no rate cut this year................

 

Partially agree - at times it may be a TRUMP CALL but the President has shown he can swiftly reverse course and change market sentiment and direction with another tweet.  Example will be the Mexico Tariff that will be resolved soon (bullish) and more bullish talk of the G20 meeting etc