37 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

A final hour pull-back but the trend up is strong, the economy worries will be handled later, and the FED will come in when the SPX goes below 2750 or even before that. But, the FED PUT is there, not priced in fully as yet, but the bulls are comforted by it. 

 

Mexico Tariff is almost a non-event --- why will a 5% tariff crash the market? Even so, there might not be any tariff. 

 

China Trade War is the only major worry for the markets but it is now a phony war as they wait each other out and promise to talk, and both Presidents have confessed their true love and friendship for each other (yeah, right)

 

I will buy any dip below SPX 2800 from now until late September; a few months from now will bring the painful reckoning of a weak economy but let us enjoy the rally while it lasts.

 

 

SPX closed above 50ma (blue) Magenta is 200ma, brown in 20ma

NOTE that VIX, blue line below with light blue area chart -- it is a pattern that seems to be similar to that in January 2018. 

 

[cycletimer]

For the first time this year I went 100% to cash. I have taken profits in Longs and sitting out for a bit. Though I’d been positioned for a relief rally, the trajectory surprised me. I sold most at 2830 and held a little into today, exited everything about 10 min before the close today.
From here I’m anticipating a high next week followed by a pullback of 50% of this rally. I’m looking for 3000-3100 either late July or early August. I’ll provide cycle dates in future posts, next one is June 14th.

[dTraderB]

For the first time this year I went 100% to cash. I have taken profits in Longs and sitting out for a bit. Though I’d been positioned for a relief rally, the trajectory surprised me. I sold most at 2830 and held a little into today, exited everything about 10 min before the close today.
From here I’m anticipating a high next week followed by a pullback of 50% of this rally. I’m looking for 3000-3100 either late July or early August. I’ll provide cycle dates in future posts, next one is June 14th.

 

With the Mexican tariff issue off the table I expect an initial rally then down. Could be an UP to FLAT week. 

 

FED will not cut rates while markets are rallying towards record high but they may not wait until July to start the process, look forward to your cycle dates

[dTraderB]

As we said in post above, Mexico Tariff was a non-event, and the settlement of this matter does not necessarily lead to a rally....

 

Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump

BlockedBlocked @realDonaldTrump

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I am pleased to inform you that The United States of America has reached a signed agreement with Mexico. The Tariffs scheduled to be implemented by the U.S. on Monday, against Mexico, are hereby indefinitely suspended. Mexico, in turn, has agreed to take strong measures to....

5:31 PM - 7 Jun 2019

[dTraderB]

This is rather naive of CNBC; yes, tariffs can be self-inflicted damage but it is a weapon that can be used when all others fail...

 

Trump is playing a risky game by weaponizing US economic power with tariffs

https://www.cnbc.com...ng-tariffs.html

[dTraderB]

Agree with some of his opinions: 

 

 

A ‘bad trade headline’ could easily send stocks back into a tailspin, Wells Fargo warns

https://www.cnbc.com...ells-fargo.html

[dTraderB]

Haven't traded GOLD since ??? 2009? or 2008?

 

I might consider a GLD trade. GOLD Bulls are excited and energized....when to short GLD is my question, LOL

 

"Investors rushed into the commodity on Thursday, pushing it to a four-month high. Gold is now just 1% away from its 52-week intraday high of $1,349.80 from February, and TradingAnalysis.com’s Todd Gordon believes it may soon surpass that level.

 

After examining the charts, he says bullion could climb as high as $1,500.'

https://www.cnbc.com...alyst-says.html

[dTraderB]

FED taking heavy incoming....

I do not see any damaging effects, so far, but if there is a recession or global financial crisis then the FED will be dangerously short of all the tools required to 

handle such situations - PUSHING ON A STRING with an empty tank 

Opinion: It’s game over for the Fed as the central bank’s credibility crumbles

Federal Reserve has failed to normalize its policy over the past 10 years, and now it’s standing by to create even more easy money

https://www.marketwa...bles-2019-06-07

[dTraderB]

More flak for the FED; I agree with much of this but do not see it as affecting the market in the near future:

 

“The Fed has a little more than one percentage point of rate cuts before it effectively runs out of ammunition,” independent economist Joel Naroff said Wednesday. “With the U.S. budget deficit nearing $1 trillion, fiscal policy is in a straitjacket. So we better hope that a major slowdown doesn’t occur anytime soon or to quote George H.W. Bush, we will be in “deep doodoo”.

 

https://www.marketwa...rump-2019-06-07

[dTraderB]

true, for LT objective, do not buy into the rally as it nears the end, but for ST & IT trade the rally and be prepared to move out of LONGS 

 

"We're not seeing that. Instead, the markets continue to behave like it's the end of the cycle:

1. Large-caps are rallying because they're better able to survive a slowdown (and are more likely to pay a dividend and/or buy back shares)
2. Small-caps are underperforming because they're the opposite of large-caps
3. And Treasuries are rallying because traders believe the Fed is more likely to cut rates.

In other words, don't buy into the rally. At least not yet."

https://seekingalpha...g-june-3minus-7