17 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

The usual volatility games before OPEX week is now in progress. This pullback may still test SPX 2840 but after that it is UP again next week. 

However, all this can be reduced to irrelevance if the geopolitical events in the MidEast blow up into something much more dangerous. 

 

2 oil tankers were damaged in possible attacks in the Gulf of Oman

Vox-48 minutes ago

Two oil tankers traveling through a vital Middle Eastern waterway caught fire and sustained significant damage on Thursday, leading navies ...

Two oil tankers struck in suspected attacks in Gulf of Oman
The Guardian-1 hour ago

 

Tankers Attacked Again in Gulf of Oman, Raising Fears of Wider Conflict
International-The New York Times-39 minutes ago

 

Two oil tankers apparently attacked in Gulf of Oman
CBS News-57 minutes ago

 

Oil tankers hit in fresh 'torpedo attack' in Gulf of Oman amid Iran tensions
Live Updating-Telegraph.co.uk-1 hour ago

 

Two oil tankers struck in suspected attacks in Gulf of Oman: shipping ...
International-Reuters-1 hour ago

2 oil tankers were damaged in possible attacks in the Gulf of Oman

Vox-48 minutes ago

Two oil tankers traveling through a vital Middle Eastern waterway caught fire and sustained significant damage on Thursday, leading navies ...

Two oil tankers struck in suspected attacks in Gulf of Oman
The Guardian-1 hour ago

 

Tankers Attacked Again in Gulf of Oman, Raising Fears of Wider Conflict
International-The New York Times-39 minutes ago

 

Two oil tankers apparently attacked in Gulf of Oman
CBS News-57 minutes ago

 

Oil tankers hit in fresh 'torpedo attack' in Gulf of Oman amid Iran tensions
Live Updating-Telegraph.co.uk-1 hour ago

 

Two oil tankers struck in suspected attacks in Gulf of Oman: shipping ...
International-Reuters-1 hour ago

[dTraderB]

Nice chart

 

David Larew‏ @ThinkTankCharts

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Inverse VIX - never turned red with this up move. Buy stocks was the signal

1:22 AM - 13 Jun 2019

[dTraderB]

David Larew‏ @ThinkTankCharts

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VIX - on a Sell signal the last 7 days - Bullish for the S&P 500 - a move under the 50 DMA and the markets would likely test the highs next week.

1:16 AM - 13 Jun 2019

[dTraderB]

David Larew‏ @ThinkTankCharts

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S&P 500 - Breadth says nothing more than a consolidation move with the 1% correction. Generally such moves are Bear Traps unless the Breadth indicates strong selling - nope, none noted.

1:07 AM - 13 Jun 2019

[dTraderB]

David Larew‏ @ThinkTankCharts

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NYSE Advancing Volume vs. Total Volume - so far this move up looks like a Bull Trap similar to December 1st. Maybe next week with OE and the Fed meeting we will have more advancing volume.

12:37 AM - 13 Jun 2019

[dTraderB]

David Larew‏ @ThinkTankCharts

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S&P 500 and Breadth - and just like that the S&P 500 backs off and doesn't test the 50 DMA. Breadth fails to take on the Bollinger Band - So in limbo for now, BB on the 60 min charts are tight, so big move is coming soon.

12:26 AM - 13 Jun 2019

[dTraderB]

TIM says pullback and then zoom up again...

Yesterday, we said that “This is the week before expiration week, which commonly has whipsaws, and next week is option expiration week, which normally has a bullish bias. Today marks five days up in a row, which is bearish short term but bullish longer term. When the market is up 5 days in a row, the market is higher 8 days out 93% of the time. Since this week is the week before options expiration week and the market has been up 5 days in a row, the odds are that a pullback will start tomorrow. The pattern that could be forming here is a “Right Shoulder” of a Head and Shoulders bottom. The next low should see panic in the Tick and TRIN to indicate support is near. The next area of support comes in near the 284 SPY range and is a place to look for panic.” This scenario is playing out. The bottom window is the 150 moving average of the 5-minute Cumulative Tick. It rises and falls with the market and, over the last couple of days, it has rolled over and produced a bearish short term sign. Watching for signs for the next bullish setup.

 

https://stockcharts....ne-11-2019.html

[dTraderB]

I like GMM, very useful, a different take:

 

S&P500 Key Levels

Posted on June 12, 2019by macromon

After rallying 6.66 percent from the bear trap low last Monday to yesterday’s high of 2910.16,  the S&P is now consolidating that big move.  The ‘bots have mastered the art of the bear trap.   F**k wads!

The 50-day moving average held today, which is positive.   The 2900 level seems to be a big number and a key Fibo retracement of this recent 7.63 percent sell-off.  A close above 2900 greatly increases the odds the 2954.13 all-time high will be taken out.

Note, our target for the S&P was 3025 before the Big Dipper sell-off hits but began to doubt that especially after the threat of Mexican tariffs came onto the radar.  The market is conditioned to salivate when the Fed rings the bell of mo monetary stimulus and, as you can see in the table and matrix below, the market prices a higher and higher probability of a Fed rescue as each day passes.

We respect that and don’t fight it but are reducing risk as the market moves higher.  We believe we are in the late or extra innings of this bull market, valuations are at extremes and the tectonic geopolitical and economic plates, which have been the foundation of the secular bull market are rapidly shifting.

You have to feed the seals while they’re barking, folks. Trying to sell into a panic market with no bid is not fun and very unhealthy for your P&L.

 

 

https://global-macro...-key-levels-13/

 

[dTraderB]

More from one of the official unofficial Chinese Govt twitter accounts:

 

Global Times‏Verified account @globaltimesnews

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China’s commerce ministry said Thursday Beijing will not yield to any “maximum pressure” from Washington, and any attempt by the Trump administratio to force China into accepting a trade deal will fail.

2:52 AM - 13 Jun 2019

[dTraderB]

with VXN going lower, possibly below 20, I want to buy more QQQ puts